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Chelsea vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Champions League Quarterfinals Leg 2

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 18, 2023 · 10:34 AM PDT

Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti waves to the crowd
Jul 30, 2022; Pasadena California, USA; Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti waves to the crowd during an international friendly against Juventus at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
  • It’s Chelsea vs Real Madrid in a Champions League quarterfinal second-leg on Tuesday, April 18
  • Real Madrid leads 2-0 from the first leg, after goals from Benzema and Asensio in the Bernabeu
  • Find our Chelsea vs Real Madrid prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Chelsea vs Real Madrid in a quarterfinal second leg of the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday, April 18. It all kicks off at Stamford Bridge at 3:00 pm ET. The visitors start as plus-money favorites after winning the first leg 2-0 but are they the best bet for your Chelsea vs Real Madrid prediction?

We preview our Chelsea vs Real Madrid picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and Chelsea vs Real Madrid predictions below.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Chelsea +175
Real Madrid +150
Draw +265

The bookmakers have Real Madrid listed as plus-money favorites at +150 with an implied home win probability of 40%, while Chelsea are on offer at +175 with a win probability of 36.4%. The draw is competitively priced at +265 in the Chelsea vs Real Madrid odds given that a draw for Real will be enough and is implied at 27.4%.

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Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on April 16.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Over/Under and Spread

With the benchmark set at 2.5 goals in the game, the bookies have pitched the under at -110 and the over at a marginally more tempting -115.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Preview

Despite Chelsea making a decent start to the first leg in the Santiago Bernabeu, they were left ruing missed chances and a general lack of quality in front of goal – something that has bedeviled them all season and which ultimately led to the sacking of Graham Potter.

The trip to Madrid was Frank Lampard’s second game in charge in his second spell at Stamford Bridge, after being appointed as caretaker manager until the end of the season. His first at the helm was an away defeat at Wolves and, following the loss in Madrid, the Blues lost at home at the weekend to Brighton.

Poor Run of Form for Lampard’s Blues

In the EPL table, Chelsea are down in 11th place and a massive 17 points adrift of the Champions League places, so their only realistic hope of competing in it again next season is to win it this time around. Unfortunately, in order to do that they are effectively needing a soccer miracle after going down 2-0 in the Bernabeu.

The Blues’ form guide shows no wins in their last six and so, despite there still being plenty of expensively acquired quality in their squad, in order to progress in the Chelsea vs Real Madrid predictions they need to muster from somewhere an extraordinary turnaround. But, miracles do happen in soccer, and an early Chelsea goal would make it very interesting.

Real in Driving Seat

Those first-leg goals from Benzema and Asensio have put Los Blancos in a strong position as they go in search of their record-breaking 15th Champions League/European Cup triumph. Everything points to them having more than enough in the tank to get the job done in West London and, while an early goal for Chelsea may leave the door ajar for Lampard’s men, an early goal for Real would effectively end the tie as a contest.

Carlo Ancelotti, who also managed Chelsea between 2009 and 2011, has put together a side that is full of goals albeit it looks as if they may have to settle for the runners-up spot in La Liga, with Barcelona currently leading them by ten points with nine games left.

Outstanding Record in UCL for Los Blancos

At the weekend they warmed up perfectly for this tie with a routine 2-0 win away at Cadiz, meaning they have now scored two goals or more in each of their last five outings. In addition, their recent record in the UCL in the last decade has been outstanding, having lifted the trophy five times in the last nine seasons.

With that two-goal lead, Los Blancos look well-placed to secure a place in the last four, where, if they go through, they face the winner of the Bayern Munich vs Manchester City semifinal, which City currently leads 3-0.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Team Lineups and Injuries

Chelsea Projected Lineup: Arrizabalaga, Badiashile, Silva, Fofana, Cucurella, Kovacic, Fernandez, Kante, James, Felix, Sterling.

Injuries & absences: Koulibaly, Chilwell, Havertz, Aubameyang.

Real Madrid Projected Lineup: Courtois, Carvajal, Militao, Alaba, Camavinga, Valverde, Kroos, Modric, Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinícius.

Injuries & absences: None.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head Stats

CHELSEA
VS
REAL MADRID
5-1-2 UCL record 2022-23 6-1-1
12 / 7 Goals for / against 23 / 8
132 Total Attempts on Goal* 159
87.0 Passing accuracy (%)* 90.8
55.6 Possession (%)* 56.0
DLDLLL Form guide (all comps) WWLLWW

* Stats from UEFA Official site.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Prediction

On paper, this Chelsea squad looks more than capable of going toe-to-toe with Europe’s elite but confidence and belief are in very short supply right now at Stamford Bridge. Worth noting is that, while Real has more than enough in their tank to get the job done in style, they only need to avoid a two-goal defeat.

But, for me, with Los Blancos still in plus money, the value remains with the away win, possibly just by the odd goal for my Chelsea vs Real Madrid prediction.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Picks: Real Madrid to win (+150) / Real Madrid to win 2-1 (+700)

Also, read our Napoli vs AC Milan picks for Tuesday’s other UCL quarterfinal here.

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