Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Champions League Quarterfinals Leg 2
- Napoli hosts AC Milan in the second leg of their Champions League quarterfinal tie on Tuesday, April 18th, at 3:00 pm ET
- The Rossoneri have a 1-0 advantage thanks to an Ismael Bennacer deflected goal at the San Siro
- Get our Napoli vs AC Milan prediction and odds below
Alexa, cue the Champions League theme song. That’s right, the Champions League is back again this week as Napoli and AC Milan lock horns for the third time this month. Despite Napoli’s flying form in the Serie A, AC Milan have beaten them on back to back encounters, outscoring Stefano Pioli’s side 5-0. We have our Napoli vs AC Milan prediction for their third encounter here.
Now, they will look to do the impossible and get a third straight result against Gli Azzurri. A win would make Napoli the first side since Lazio in 1995 to beat Napoli three times in a single season; however, a draw would also do the trick on Tuesday night. Napoli should return Victor Osimhen to the starting eleven, which will surely test the Milan back line. All we know for sure is that one Italian team will advance to the Champions League semifinals on Tuesday. Keep reading for the Napoli vs AC Milan odds and our picks below.
Napoli vs AC Milan Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Napoli | -130 |
| AC Milan | +380 |
| Draw | +270 |
Overall, Napoli are the moneyline favorites in this one with odds of -130, equating to an implied win probability of 56.5%. This is fair considering they are 9-3-0 in their last twelve matches in the Champions League at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. In this season’s rendition of the Champions League, they are 4-0-0 at home, outscoring their opponents by a combined score line of 14-3. In the Champions League odds, Napoli and AC Milan have respective odds of +800 and +1200 to lift ol’ big ears.
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Napoli vs AC Milan Over/Under
In the first leg of Napoli vs AC Milan, we saw how these sides can play it tame and hit the under. The odds for the under on 2.5 total goals are favored again on Tuesday with juiced odds of -140, which I think is a bit overvalued. While these sides fought to a 1-0 finish last week, they finished 4-0 in favor to Milan just a few days earlier. On top of that, we know Napoli has scored at least three goals in each of their four home Champions League matches this season. With Osimhen back in the lineup, and recent head-to-head results falling either way, it is too tough to call.
Napoli vs AC Milan Props – Both Teams Won’t Score
Instead, look towards fading the both teams to score prop, which offers odds of -120 for your Napoli vs AC Milan prediction. This play has hit in five of their last six head-to-head matches, with a 75% success rate over their last 20 combined matches across all competitions. Realistically, either team could get shut out in this one, which obviously gives this play more value.
Napoli vs AC Milan Projected Lineups and Injuries
Napoli Projected Lineup: Meret, Rui, Jesus, Rrahmani, Di Lorenzo, Ndombele, Zielinski, Lobotka, Kvaratskhelia, Osimhen, Lozano
Major Injuries & Absences: Min-jae, Anguissa, Simeone
AC Milan Projected Lineup: Maignan, Hernandez, Tomori, Kjaer, Calabria, Tonali, Krunic, Bennacer, Leao, Giroud, Diaz
Major Injuries & Absences: Ibrahimovic
It is Not Time to Give up on Napoli, Yet
It feels as though Napoli has been everyone’s dark horse for a while now. They have an electric attack with the likes of Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, a duo that has been ruthless at times this year. Luciano Spalletti’s squad has had hiccups lately and will have some big names missing on Tuesday, including Kim Min-jae in defense and Zambo Anguissa in the midfield.
Napoli vs AC Milan Head-to-Head Statistics
| 2.78 | Goals per game | 1.56 |
| 2.56 | Expected goals per game | 1.46 |
| 0.78 | Goals allowed per game | 0.78 |
| 1.22 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.06 |
| 54.6% | Possession % | 48.3% |
| 44.4% | Clean Sheet % | 55.6% |
| 16.9 | Shots per game | 12.7 |
| D-L-W-L-W | Recent Form Guide (All Comps) | D-W-D-W-L |
Stats in the table from 2022/23 European play.
This Milan team deserves their flowers too. They made it further than I anticipated and Mike Maignan is standing on his head in the goal. But, it is not time to give up hope on Napoli yet. A one-goal deficit is nothing in a big Champions League tie and this type of win could really spur them on in the semifinals. Osimhen’s impact really cannot be overstated either; the Nigerian has 0.99 goals per ninety minutes in all competitions this year. In the simplest of terms, he is a game changer.
👆 Let's pick ourselves back up
💙 #ForzaNapoliSempre #TuttoPerLei pic.twitter.com/NtNtwbfvF8
— Official SSC Napoli (@en_sscnapoli) April 16, 2023
Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction
The Napoli moneyline doesn’t have enough value for me, so instead I am going Napoli to advance with odds of +110 and the no on both teams to score at -120 for my Napoli vs AC Milan prediction.
Napoli vs AC Milan Picks: Napoli to advance (+110), No on BTTS (-120)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
