AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Champions League Picks
- AC Milan and Napoli clash in the Champions League quarterfinals on Wednesday with favored in the AC Milan vs Napoli odds
- Milan just thrashed the Serie A leaders 4-0 on April 2nd
- Can they find another result? Read on for the AC Milan vs Napoli prediction for this first leg
Wednesday brings an all-Italian affair in the Champions League quarterfinals as AC Milan plays host to rivals Napoli. The kick-off for this first leg is scheduled for 3 PM PT at the San Siro. We have your AC Milan vs Napoli prediction here.
Milan just moved past Tottenham by the skin of their teeth in the Round of 16, 1-0 on aggregate. Napoli meanwhile ran through Europa holders Frankfurt, beating them 5-0 across two legs.
AC Milan vs Napoli Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| AC Milan | +185 |
| Napoli | +165 |
| Draw | +225 |
As you can see, there is really no clear favorite. Napoli comes in at +165 for an implied win probability of 37.74%. Milan’s Champions League odds of +185 give them a 35.09% chance of coming out victorious. A draw is priced at +225. When it comes to recent meetings, the Rossoneri just throttled the Serie A leaders 4-0 at the start of the month.
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AC Milan vs Napoli Preview
Milan is into their first UCL quarterfinal since 2012 and has the opportunity to knock out one of their biggest foes. But while Stefano Pioli’s side is at this stage, it doesn’t hide the fact that 2022-23 has been a disappointing campaign in their Scudetto defense.
The Rossoneri currently sit in fourth place in Serie A and a whole 22 points off Napoli in top spot. Inter is also breathing down their necks in fifth, just one point behind. Having already exited Coppa Italia, Milan’s focus is undoubtedly on securing a top-four berth for next year’s Champions League season and of course, getting as far as humanly possible in the latter stages of this current competition.
What a day for this ☀️😎 #MilanNapoli #UCL #SempreMilan
Brought to you by @play_eFootball pic.twitter.com/JrAgnDgReo— AC Milan (@acmilan) April 10, 2023
That being said, they’re not in the greatest form at the moment. Pioli’s men have won just once in their last six outings and that was against Napoli. During this span, Milan lost twice and settled for three draws, too.
Aside from the embarrassing defeat to Wednesday’s opponents, it’s been a phenomenal campaign for Napoli. They’re 16 points clear at the top of the Serie A table and basically have the title wrapped up. The most impressive part is their superior goal difference, netting 66 times in 29 games and conceding just 21.
Napoli star Victor Osimhen trained alone on Easter, hoping to recover for the first leg of the Champions League quarter-final against Milan on Wednesday, but his return remains uncertain. 🇳🇬❓ pic.twitter.com/4KzOiyKMaz
— Football Italia (@footballitalia) April 10, 2023
When it comes to the UCL, Luciano Spalletti’s group wiped the floor with Frankfurt in the last 16, with talisman Victor Osimhen scoring three of their five goals in the tie. The Nigerian has actually missed the last two matches due to injury and has yet to train with the squad ahead of Wednesday. His status remains uncertain.
Napoli has lost just twice in their previous nine appearances and earned another three points Friday against Lecce by a score of 2-1. It wasn’t a fantastic performance by any means, but the Blues ground out a victory regardless.
AC Milan vs Napoli Projected Lineups & Injuries
Milan Projected Lineup: Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Kjaer, Hernandez; Tonali, Krunic, Bennacer; Diaz, Leao; Giroud
Injuries & absences: Kalulu
Napoli Projected Lineup: Meret; Di Lorenzo, Kim, Rrahmani, Rui; Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski; Lozano, Raspadori, Kvaratskhelia
Injuries & absences: Osimhen (questionable), Simeone (doubtful)
Milan is looking at a relatively clean bill of health for their first-ever Champions League meeting with Napoli. As for the visitors, Osimhen remains questionable and even if he is available, the striker won’t start. Giovanni Simeone is also doubtful after picking up an injury over the weekend, leaving a lot of the attacking duties to 22-year-old phenom Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
AC Milan vs Napoli Key UCL Stats
| 9.0 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 4.5 | Shots on Target | 7.9 |
| 1.6 | Goals | 3.1 |
| DDLWD | Record in Last Five Games | WWWLW |
AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction
I definitely do not expect another lopsided result in favor of the Rossoneri for my AC Milan vs Napoli prediction. Napoli will turn up. These absences in the final third are concerning for the first leg, though. The reverse fixture could very well be a different story, but I’m liking a draw here.
Pick: Draw +225
Quinn Allen is a sports journalist, with a background and education in broadcast journalism (BCIT '17). He is a full-time associate editor at ClutchPoints by day, where he writes about soccer, baseball, basketball, football, and more. At night, Quinn is a frequent contributor at SBD.
