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Coppa Italia Final Odds & Picks: Lazio vs Atalanta

Duvan Zapata of Atalanta
Duván Zapata is Atalanta's top scorer, and sits just four goals behind the Serie A goalscoring lead. Photo By @futbolsincadera (Twitter)
  • The Coppa Italia final is set to kick off on Wednesday, May 15, 2019
  • Lazio gunning for seventh Coppa win
  • Atalanta look to continue impressive campaign with first Coppa Italia win since 1963

Atalanta will travel to the Stadio Olimpico in Rome on Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 2:45 pm EST to compete for this year’s Coppa Italia final. The stadium is home to both Lazio and Roma in Serie A.

Heading into the final, Rome-based Lazio are the small betting favorites to lift the tropy at odds of -125.

We take a look at the best bets for this Italian Cup final.

Lazio vs Atalanta Coppa Italia Final Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds to Lift Trophy at Odds at Bovada
Lazio 0.0 (-120) +160 O 2.5 (-120) -125
Atalanta 0.0 (EVEN) +170 U 2.5 (EVEN) -105
Draw N/A +235 N/A N/A

*Odds taken May 14, 2019

The Path to the Final

Both Lazio and Atalanta entered the competition in the round of 16 phase of this all-Italian competition consisting of 78 teams.

Lazio began with a 4-1 win over Serie C side Novara. In the quarterfinals they defeated Inter Milan on penalties and over the two-legged semifinal round they beat AC Milan 1-0.

Lazio vs Atalanta Coppa Italia Stats

Lazio
VS
Atalanta

3-1-0 Record 3-1-0
6 Goals For 10
2 Goals Against 4
71 Shots 63
34 Shots on Target 21
24 Corners 25

For Atalanta, they advanced past fellow Serie A side Cagliari 2-0 in the round of 16. In the quarters, they pulled the huge 3-0 upset over Juventus, before two exciting semifinals legs against Fiorentina where they emerged 5-4 victors on aggregate.

La Dea Leading Top 4 Race

Once hopeful of simply finishing Top 4 in Serie A, Atalanta found themselves in third after the weekend’s fixtures with a 2-1 home win to Genoa, though slid back to fourth after Inter’s Monday night win.

A potential third place finish would be La Dea’s highest success in Italy’s top flight in their club’s history.

But whether they finish third or not, more importantly, they hold the final Champions League spot in fourth over AC Milan, Roma and Torino who are all in the race.

Across all competitions, Atalanta have lost just twice since December 22, 2018. Their last defeat was in the league on February 23 away to Torino.

Lazio were just eliminated from a potential Top 4 finish with Inter’s win over Cagliari on Monday. At 17-7-12, their 58 points put them just out of reach of Atalanta’s 65 points with only two matches to play.

Their recent form has been marginal in the league of late, which saw them fade from the Top 4 race. Lazio have won just three of their past eight matches. The Coppa Italia final will be seen as a crucial match which woul gain them entry to European competition in the Europa League.

These teams met as recently as May 5 in the league in what resulted in a 3-1 Atalanta road win.

These teams met as recently as May 5 in the league in what resulted in a 3-1 Atalanta road win. Despite finding themselves down 1-0 just three minutes into play, Atalanta replied through a goal by Duván Zapata 19 minutes later to take a 1-1 draw into the half.

A 58′ minute goal by Timothy Castagne and an own goal by Lazio at the 76′ gave La Dea the win.

The Bergamo side also defeated Lazio 1-0 at home in December. The two matches between the sides last season each ended in draws (1-1 and 3-3).

Coming from behind, as they did earlier this month, is nothing new for Atalanta. It’s also something they do quite well. Atalanta have recovered the most points (23) from losing positions as any Serie A team this year.

Atalanta have recovered the most points (23) from losing positions as any Serie A team this year.

Goals from Zupata have also been a regular occurance this season. The 28-year-old forward is second in Serie A scoring with 22 goals.

He’s hardly been alone in his goal-scoring exploits with teammate Josip Ilicic having scored 11 of his own, followed by Alejandro Gómez with six.

Overall, Atalanta’s 73 goals are a league-best in Serie A this season. It’s also four more than title winners Juventus.

Lazio’s top scoring threat comes in Ciro Immobile who has 14 goals and five assists on the year.

Lazio Target 7th Coppa Italia Title

The Biancocelesti are one of the most successful sides in this Italian competition. While Juventus have won each of the last four Coppa Italias and own the most overall titles with 13, Lazio have won six titles of their own.

That equals Fiorentina and is one less than Inter Milan’s seven and three behind Roma’s nine.

Recent Coppa Italia Winners

Year Team
2018 Juventus
2017 Juventus
2016 Juventus
2015 Juventus
2014 Napoli
2013 Lazio
2012 Napoli
2011 Inter
2010 Inter
2009 Lazio

Lasio last reached the final in both 2017 and 2015, losing on both occasions to Juventus.

While Lazio has lifted the trophy twice this past decade, Atalanta’s lone success in the tournament came way back in 1963. They were finalists in 1996.

Coppa Italia Final Prediction

Wednesday’s final looks to be an exciting conclusion to the tournament and should offer plenty of goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.

Given Lazio will be playing in their home stadium, it’s worth noting they’ve only failed to score at the Stadio Olimpico twice over their past 18 matches. However, they’ve kept just four clean sheets during that same timeframe.

Lazio have only failed to score at the Stadio Olimpico twice over their past 18 matches.

We’ve already touched on Atalanta’s scoring exploits, which have also been especially strong on the road.

Across Europe’s top five leagues, only PSG have scored more times on their travels with 41 goals, compared to Atalanta’s 40.

Atalanta’s matches have seen an average of four goals scored in their past six, with both teams scoring in five.

Head-to-head, seven of nine between Atalanta and Lazio have seen both teams score and five of those nine have seen the total go over 2.5 goals.

I took Atalanta at +200 to lift the trophy last month and still believe that is a good bet now at -105.

Best Bets: Atalanta to lift trophy (-105), Over 2.5 goals (-120)

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