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Croatia vs Brazil Odds & Prediction – World Cup Quarterfinals

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Updated Dec 8, 2022 · 7:01 AM PST

Brazil's Neymar, right, celebrates with teammate Vini Jr. after scoring his side's opening goal from the penalty spot during a qualifying soccer match for the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, against Chile at Maracana stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Thursday, March 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Silvia Izquierdo)
  • Croatia takes on tournament favorites Brazil in the World Cup quarterfinals on Friday, December 9th at 10:00 am ET
  • Brazil have beaten Croatia in their last three meetings, including World Cup victories in 2006 and 2014
  • Get more Croatia vs Brazil odds and predictions below

Croatia vs Brazil is the 2022 World Cup’s first quarterfinal on Friday morning. The winner of this match will advance to the semifinals on Tuesday, where they will play either the Netherlands or Argentina in the World Cup bracket. Read our analysis and Croatia vs Brazil prediction below, to see what plays we are leaning on.

So far, Brazil have been the Belle of the ball at this year’s tournament. They started off with two clean victories in the group stage, taking down both Serbia and Switzerland, before a rotated side lost to Cameroon on the final day. In the Round of 16, the Samba swagger came out as Brazil danced around South Korea, scoring a whopping four goals in the first half. It was a half of football that has since drove their World Cup odds to win, all the way down to +175.

On the other hand, Croatia just narrowly squeezed out of their group on five points. They held the door shut against Belgium, despite having an xGA of 3.0 on the night, which is frankly the reason they are still here. Then, in the Round of 16, a horrific set of penalties from Japan after extra time helped the Croatians advance.

Croatia vs Brazil Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds Odds to Advance
Croatia +800 +450
Brazil -280 -650
Draw +425 N/A

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All in all, Brazil are the big moneyline favorites here at -280. Again, this is fair considering the
Seleção Canarinho are 10-0-1 in their last 11. Furthermore, they have won their last three matches against Croatia, which does give them the historical advantage. In the World Cup public betting trends, Brazil are taking over 80-percent of the handle and bet count.

A positive to give out in favor of Croatia is that they do have good chances of a draw in regular time. In fact, over the course of their last five knockout games in major tournaments (excluding finals), they have played extra time in three. Basically, the takeaway is that Zlatko Dalić’s side can ride out results to the very end, even against the best.

Croatia vs Brazil Over/Under

Additionally, look for under 2.5 goals in the totals market, with odds of +105. In their eight combined World Cup matches so far, this has hit 75% of the time. Moreover, if Croatia want to win this, they will play the game on their tempo. Brazil obviously have a great offense, but Croatia’s defense is as stingy as they come. They were expected to give up five goals in the World Cup so far, but have only conceded twice. On top of that, they have held five clean sheets in their last seven across all competitions.

Croatia vs Brazil Statistics

1.40 Goals per game 2.90
1.28 Expected goals per game 2.48
0.50 Goals allowed per game 0.40
1.33 Expected goals allowed per game 1.07
52% Possession % 60%
50% Clean Sheet % 60%
9.7 Shots per game 20.3
D-D-W-D-W Recent Form Guide (Regular Time) W-L-W-W-W

Stats in the table from the last ten matches across all competitions.

Richarlison’s Odds to Score Anytime

Another play I favor is in the anytime goal-scorer market. Richarlison has +150 odds to score against Croatia, which is fair value for a player with three goals already. Also, he has only played in 240 minutes, giving him a goals per ninety ratio of 1.13, the best in this Brazil side.

Croatia vs Brazil Projected Lineups and Injuries

Croatia Projected Lineup: Livakovic, Sosa, Gvardiol, Lovren, Juranovic, Kovacic, Brozovic, Modric, Perisic, Petkovic, Kramaric

Major Injuries & Absences: Stanisic (questionable)

Brazil Projected Lineup: Alisson, Danilo, Silva, Marquinhos, Militao, Casemiro, Paqueta, Neymar, Vinicius, Richarlison, Raphinha

Major Injuries & Absences: Jesus, Telles, Sandro (questionable)

Croatia vs Brazil Prediction

Overall, while I think Brazil will advance from this game (-650), it is tough to tell in what manner. I do favor Croatia to keep it close, but their +1.5 spread option is a little juicy at -130. Instead, I am going back to the totals market and riding with this game to stay under 2.5 total goals, with odds of +105.

Croatia have a much better defense than South Korea and Brazil should find it harder to find gaps between the lines. On the Croatian side, you probably do not have to worry about them scoring. Their attack is rather dull and probably will have a difficult time challenging Alisson.

Pick: Under 2.5 total goals (+105)

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