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Croatia vs Spain Odds & Prediction – Nations League Final

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Jun 17, 2023 · 2:00 PM PDT

Croatia midfielder Luka Modric
Nov 27, 2022; Doha, Qatar; Croatia midfielder Luka Modric (10) kicks the ball against Canada midfielder Ismael Kone (15) during the second half of a group stage match during the 2022 World Cup at Khalifa International Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
  • It’s Croatia vs Spain in the final of the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, June 18
  • The Spanish start as even-money favorites but Croatia and experienced, wily opponents
  • Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Croatia vs Spain in the final of the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, June 18, with kick-off in the De Kuip stadium,  Feyenoord at 2:45 pm ET.

Led by the age-less Luka Modric, the Croatians overcame a tricky semi against the Dutch to qualify for their second-ever major final, while the Spanish needed an 88th-minute winner to edge past Italy.

We preview our Croatia vs Spain picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Croatia vs Spain Odds

Matchup Moneyline To Win the Cup
Croatia +125 +140
Spain +265 -185
Draw +235 N/A

The Spanish start as the bookmakers’ even money favorites with an implied win probability of 50/50, while Croatia are listed at a more generous +265, implied at 27%. The draw after 90 minutes is also nicely priced at +235 in Croatia vs Spain odds and is implied at 30%.



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Odds from FansDuel Sportsbook on June 14.

Croatia vs Spain Over/Under and Spread

With the tipping point set at 2.5 goals, the bookies have listed the over in plus-money at +105 and the under at a less appealing -145 and so, by implication, are anticipating a tight game with few goals.

Croatia vs Spain Preview

For a country of just 3.9 million people, Croatia has consistently punched above its weight in the elite circles of world soccer for most of the last decade. Despite this team being continually written off by pundits as being well past its prime, it continues to astound.

They have been semifinalists in the last two World Cups and, led by the seemingly age-less Luka Modric, have now gone a step further in this competition after winning a remarkable semifinal against the hosts, the Netherlands, on Wednesday. Despite conceding a late equalizer, extra-time goals from Modric and Petkovic saw them claim another remarkable victory.

The Modric, Kovacic and Brozovic Axis

The big question now is whether they have enough left in the tank to finally get over the line and win a much-deserved major trophy, and whether coach Zlatko Dalić can rally his men one more time to take that final step.

The key, as ever, to their chances with be their midfield trio of Modric, Mateo Kovacic, and Marcelo Brozovic who are central to everything good about this team. If they play well, Croatia has a chance.

Impressive Spanish

Following a disappointing World Cup, which saw them exit the tournament early on, coach Luis Enrique was relieved of his duties and was replaced by Luis de la Fuente. The new man has made a decent start with two wins and a loss, the most recent of course being their narrow semifinal win over Italy on Thursday.

And he will have been happy with what he saw on Thursday with his team continuing the Spanish tradition of having lots of patient possession and plenty of shots on goal. Against the Italians, Spain enjoyed 63 percent of possession, a passing accuracy of 88 percent, and 19 shots on goal.

Patience Needed to Beat Italy

But it still took patience and resilience from Spain, who had to overcome a limited Italy team, albeit one that displayed typical characteristics of being well-organized and hard to break down. In the end, Spain had to wait until the 88th minute when Joselu was on had to slide the ball home from close range after Rodri’s shot had been twice deflected.

Croatia vs Spain Team Lineups and Injuries

Croatia Projected Lineup: Livakovic, Juranovic, Vida, Sutalo, Perisic, Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic, Pasalic, Kramaric, Ivanusec.

Injuries & absences: Gvardiol.

Spain Projected Lineup: Simon, Navas, Le Normand, Laporte, Alba, Merino, Rodri, Asensio, Gavi, Pino, Morata.

Injuries & absences: Bernat, Garcia, Nico Williams.

Croatia vs Spain Head-to-Head Stats

4-1-1 Nations League qualifying record 3-2-1
8 / 6 Goals for / against 8 / 5
71 / 27 Goal attempts / on target* 76 / 30
88 Possession (%)* 89.9
52.6 Passing accuracy (%)* 67.4
DLDWLW Form Guide (all comps) DLWDWW

* Stats from UEFA official stats.

Croatia vs Spain Prediction

This will be close – much closer than the odds suggest – with Croatia being absolute masters at soaking up pressure and being dangerous on the break. Spain, for their part, will dominate the ball and try and starve Croatia of possession.

For me, there is every chance that this could go to extra time and even penalties, with Modric and Co in with a decent chance of finally getting their hands on some silverware.

Croatia vs Spain Picks: The draw after 90 minutes (+235) / Croatia to lift the cup (+140)


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