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EFL Cup Odds & Picks Semifinals Leg 1: Southampton vs Newcastle & Forest vs Man U

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Jan 24, 2023 · 4:00 AM PST

Joelinton EFL Cup Picks. Newcastle vs Leicester
Newcastle's Joelinton, right, duels for the ball with Manchester United's Jadon Sancho during the English Premier League soccer match between Newcastle United and Manchester United at St. James' Park in Newcastle, England, Monday, Dec. 27, 2021. (AP Photo/Jon Super)
  • It’s the first leg of the EFL Cup semifinals this week, with games on Tuesday and Wednesday
  • First up is Southampton vs Newcastle, and on Wednesday it’s Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd
  • Find our semifinal prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

The EFL Cup is down to the final four with Southampton vs Newcastle on Tuesday, January 24 (KO 3:00 pm ET) and Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd on Wednesday, January 25 (KO 3:00 pm ET) in the semifinal first legs. Newcastle and Manchester Utd start as favorites to contest the final on Sunday, February 26. Read on for our EFL Cup semifinal previews.

We preview our Southampton vs Newcastle and Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Southampton vs Newcastle Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Southampton +400
Newcastle -135
Draw +270

Odds as of Jan 24 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on this or other games.

The Toon start as plus-money favorites at -125, with a win probability of 57%, with the Saints big outsiders at +400 with an implied probability of 20%. The draw is generously priced at +270.


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Southampton vs Newcastle EPL Cup Semifinal Preview

It’s been a torrid few months for the Saints, who replaced Ralph Hasenhüttl with Nathan Jones in their manager’s seat but with no discernable upturn in fortunes. They have lost seven of their last eight in the EPL but it’s in both cups they have excelled, with a run to the semis in this competition and a win in the FA Cup.

Jones will be hoping for more cup magic at St Mary’s, where their run to the semifinals included a thrilling 2-0 win over the mighty Man City, as well as home wins over Sheffield Wednesday (on penalties) and Lincoln City. Their only away victory came in their first round against Cambridge United.

For the Toon, this has been the season of dreams. The massive cash injection provided by their new Saudi owners has started to produce success on the pitch and, in addition to this fine run in the EFL Cup, they currently sit third in the EPL table.

Newcastle’s only blip has been a surprise exit in the FA Cup where they suffered a shock defeat at the hands of League One Sheffield Wednesday. But that was very much a one-off and Eddie Howe’s men have the scent of silverware in their nostrils. It’s been 67 years since they last lifted a trophy but the wait may soon be over.

Southampton vs Newcastle Prediction

While the odds lean towards a Newcastle/Man Utd final, the Saints have thrived in the less-pressurized atmosphere of the cups this season. Ultimately, the Toon may make it to Wembley but I can see Southampton taking a slender lead to St James’ Park.

Picks: Southampton to win (+400)

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester Utd Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Nottingham Forest +425
Manchester Utd -145
Draw +280

Odds as of Jan 24 at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

United start the game as plus-money favorites at -145, with an implied win probability of 59%. Forest are listed at a massive +425 for their home leg with an implied probability of 19%. The draw is listed at +280, implied at 26%.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester Utd EPL Cup Semifinal Preview

Forest start as outsiders for this one [KO 3pm ET, Wednesday, January 24] but there’s no escaping what a turnaround Steve Cooper has instigated at the City Ground. After a busy summer, which saw Forest bring in over 20 new players and get off to a slow start, Cooper’s men have now lost just three of their last 12. As a result, they have risen to 13th in the EPL table.

In the EFL Cup, Forest had a relatively comfortable route through to the semifinal until the quarterfinal – wins over Grimsby, Tottenham, and Blackburn – but it took a penalty shootout win over Wolves to make it to the final four.

While United suffered a setback on Sunday in their quest to hunt down the EPL leaders Arsenal – losing 3-2 at the Emirates – their season has been a good one. Erik ten Hag has transformed the mood around Old Trafford and their best hope of silverware is now in one of the cups.

In the EFL Cup, they were drawn at home in each of their three games – against Aston Villa, Burnley, and Charlton Athletic, and so this trip to the City Ground will be their first away trip of the competition.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester Utd Prediction

Both teams are on an upward trajectory after indifferent starts to the season, but United will still be stinging after suffering that late body blow at the Emirates. Ten Hag will be expecting a reaction and I expect him to get one.

Picks: United to win (-145)

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