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EPL Golden Boot Odds Favor Harry Kane at +300 & Mo Salah at +400

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Aug 12, 2021 · 7:15 AM PDT

Golden Boot
Liverpool's Mohamed Salah reacts during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Liverpool, at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Thursday, May 13, 2021. (Michael Regan/Pool via AP)
  • The Premier League resumes this weekend and in turn, has fans wondering who is going to take home the coveted Golden Boot this season
  • Despite his future being unsettled at the moment, Harry Kane is the favorite to lift the trophy, while Mo Salah of Liverpool sits behind him in a close second place
  • See the odds, our analysis and betting prediction for the award below

After a summer of international play and preseason cups, the English Premier League is back in action this weekend. In fact, this weekend features some highly anticipated fixtures with the likes of Brentford vs Arsenal and Manchester City vs Tottenham. However, at the start of every season, it is extremely fun to look at the big picture and pick out who will win the Golden Boot trophy.

This year, the favorites to win the bragging rights of being England’s top scorer are Harry Kane and Mo Salah. Both of these forwards have won the award multiple times and are undoubtedly still in the prime of their careers. Unfortunately, Harry Kane’s club future is still cloudy, which makes his odds to win seem a little bit overvalued.

EPL Golden Boot Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Harry Kane +300
Mo Salah +400
Timo Werner +1600
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang +1800
Raheem Sterling +2000
Gabriel Jesus +2000
Patrick Bamford +2000
Sadio Mane +2200
Danny Ings +2200
Diogo Jota +2500
Bruno Fernandes +2500
Jamie Vardy +2500
Kelechi Iheanacho +2800
Ollie Watkins +2800
Dominic Calvert-Lewin +3500
Kai Havertz +3500
Edinson Cavani +3500
Callum Wilson +4000
Michail Antonio +4000
Ivan Toney +4000

Odds as of Aug 11 at DraftKings

On the contrary, Mo Salah’s odds to win the Golden Boot seem somewhat undervalued. The Egyptian winger has been in the race to win the award all of the four years he has been at Liverpool. For that reason, along with the fact this looks like it could be a bounce-back year for Liverpool, makes Salah a valuable choice. Nonetheless, there still are many great attackers in the Premier League capable of having a breakout scoring season.

Will Timo Werner prove he is worth the price tag Chelsea paid for him? Or will Danny Ings breakout at Aston Villa next to the likes of Emi Buendia and Ollie Watkins? Those questions are yet to be answered but proves this award has many suitable winners.

Harry Kane Won’t Win Golden Boot at Man City

Firstly, there are still many transfer rumors flying around regarding Harry Kane. It appears he does not want to be at Tottenham any longer and would prefer a move to their weekend opposition, Manchester City. The Citizens also acquired Jack Grealish this summer, another player that adds to their never-ending list of attacking depth.

EPL Golden Boot Winners Over Five Years

Year Player Goals Scored
2020/21 Harry Kane 29
2019/20 Jamie Vardy 32
2018/19 Mo Salah/Sadio Mane/Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 22
2017/18 Mo Salah 23
2016/17 Harry Kane 23

To be fair, Manchester City do score a massive amount of goals. But, when you have seven or eight players capable of scoring them, it does limit the chances one of your players wins the Golden Boot. In fact, the last Manchester City player to win the Golden Boot was Sergio Aguero in 2014-15.

Surely Harry Kane will get loads of chances as a result of the creativity Pep Guardiola’s side creates. I do see him hitting the 20 goal-mark, which is an important milestone to compete with this trophy. Regardless, if he does go to Manchester City, I see his productivity helping the team, but overall, his goal tally will suffer slightly.

This Is Mo Salah’s Trophy to Lose

Next, the real favorite to win the Premier League’s Golden Boot should be the Egyptian King, Mo Salah. Since his arrival to Liverpool in 2017, Salah has scored 95 goals across four seasons, an average of 23.75. That average was good enough to win the last three Golden Boot awards.

Salah’s first season at Liverpool where he bagged 32 does inflate that average slightly. But, it is completely fair to say that Salah has been in the Golden Boot race every year of his second tenure in England. Also, Liverpool looks to reset after last year’s defensive struggles. Salah had to do a lot of tracking back and defensive work last year, which could look very different in the new campaign.

In terms of dark horses, the name that stands out to me is Danny Ings. Aston Villa re-invested from the Grealish sale, and I truly believe Ings will benefit from their newfound success. Finally, Romelu Lukaku has yet to be added to the Premier League Golden Boot odds list but will surely be another valuable favorite.

EPL Golden Boot Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for the EPL Golden Boot is Mo Salah with odds of +400. This bet is extremely valuable and is the most sensible, given he is one of Liverpool’s most important players.

Pick: Mo Salah (+400)

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