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Euro 2020 Odds & Preview: France, England, Belgium Enter as Top Contenders

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Mar 8, 2024 · 8:42 AM PST

Euro 2020
France's Antoine Griezmann celebrates after scoring his side's second goal with his teammates during the international friendly soccer match between France and Wales at the Allianz Riviera stadium in Nice, France, Wednesday, June 2, 2021. (AP Photo/Daniel Cole)
  • Euro 2020 kicks off on Friday, June 11 at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome
  • 51 matches played over 30 days will take place in 11 host cities in Europe
  • Read below for the odds and predictions for Euro 2020 from the Group Stage to the Final

After a long delay, the European Championships are finally here. Originally scheduled for this time one year ago, Euro 2020 was delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic and will kick off on Friday, June 11, 2021 with Turkey vs Italy.

24 teams, split among six groups will compete to advance to the knockout stages, where 16 teams will battle to meet in the finals on July 11, 2021 at Wembley Stadium in London.

2018 World Cup champions France have been installed as the favorites in this competition at +460 in the Euro 2020 odds, while runners-up Croatia are a distant 40-1. Meanwhile, defending European champions Portugal from Euro 2016, are among the top contenders this tournament as well at +800.

Euro 2020 Odds

Team Odds
France +460
England +600
Belgium +750
Portugal +800
Italy +800
Germany +900
Spain +900
Netherlands +1500
Denmark +2500
Croatia +4000
Turkey +5000
Switzerland +6000
Sweden +7500
Poland +8000
Austria +10000
Russia +10000
Ukraine +10000
Czech Republic +12000
Scotland +12500
Wales +20000
Slovakia +40000
Finland +50000
Hungary +50000
North Macedonia +50000

Odds as of June 10 at DraftKings

Euro 2020 Contenders

Only ten teams have ever won the Euros and eight of the 15 tournaments have been won by either Germany, Spain or France. In the past five tournaments dating back to 2000, those three teams have finished as either champions, runners-up or both, five times. Filling out the other five spots in those years, saw Italy finish second twice, Portugal claiming first in 2016 and second in 2004. That was also the only recent year where a longshot finished in the top two, with Greece coming out on top.

All this is to say that it’s likely that this year’s winner comes from one of the top contenders. Even tenth and 11th-place favorites Croatia and Turkey, are wide outsiders at 40-1 and 50-1 odds respectively. However, now into the second tournament of 24 teams participating, and with only three group stage games, it’s always possible for an underdog to get hot and make a run.

Group A – Italy, Switzerland, Turkey, Wales

The Italians are clear favorites to top Group A and for good reason. The Gli Azzurri are now undefeated over their past 27 matches after warming up with a 4-0 friendly win over the Czechs last weekend. They’re 22-5-0 during that time and have won eight in a row. They’ll also have the advantage of playing all their group stage games in Rome.

But this group can’t be taken lightly. The Swiss are always a tough out and reached the round of 16 in 2016. Under head coach Vladimir Petković they’ve never failed to advance from the group stage over four different competitions. While Wales made it to the semifinals in 2016, bowing out to eventual champions Portugal. This could be Gareth Bale’s swan song as well with rumors the Welsh captain could retire after the tournament. Meanwhile, Turkey has now qualified for five of the past seven Euros and had an extremely strong qualifying campaign.

Group Prediction 1st-4th: Italy, Turkey, Switzerland, Wales

Group B – Belgium, Denmark, Russia, Finland

The world’s No. 1 ranked team Belgium should come out on top in Group B. They demolished their qualifying group with 40 goals scored and just three allowed. They’ll be missing Keven De Bruyne in their first match after his Champions League injury, and Eden Hazard and Axel Witsel are also dealing with injuries. Belgium’s Golden Generation has been tipped for greatness for a number of years now but have so far failed to deliver. They reached the semis in the 2018 World Cup, losing to eventual champions France 1-0.

The Danes are ranked tenth in the world and come in hot with just one loss in their past 12 across all competitions. They’ll play all their group stage games in Copenhagen. They have a draw and win over England, draw with Germany and have conceded just once in their past five during that span.

Russia (38th) and Finland (54th) are heavy outsiders here. Hosts of the 2018 World Cup, Russia likely overachieved there, but will still get two home matches in St. Petersburg against Belgium and Finland, with the other away in Denmark.

Finland, outside of a ten-goal qualifying from frontman Teemu Pukki, enter this tournament ice-cold with zero wins in their past six.

Group Prediction 1st-4th: Belgium, Denmark, Russia, Finland

Group C – Netherlands, Austria, Ukraine, North Macedonia

Netherlands are playing all their Group Stage matches at home in Amsterdam and enter the competition with just a single defeat in their last ten matches.

The Austrians only allowed nine goals in qualifying, but have just a single win in six matches entering this competition.

Casual observers may not see Ukraine as contenders, however, Andriy Shevchenko’s team had an excellent qualifying at 6-2-0, finishing a top of their group, even ahead of Portugal.

North Macedonia is ranked a lowly 62nd and is one of the favorites, along with Hungary to score the fewest goals in the tournament. They’re unlikely to advance past the Group Stage, but did pull a shock 2-1 win over Germany during qualifying. They come in undefeated in four, though the three other results were against the likes of Liechtenstein, Slovenia and Kazakhstan.

Group Prediction 1st-4th: Netherlands, Ukraine, Austria, North Macedonia

Group D – England, Croatia, Czech Republic, Scotland

The Three Lions are tipped to top Group D. They’ll have a huge advantage of playing at Wembley for all three of their Group Stage matches. Should they finish first in the group, they’ll stay at home for the round of 16. With both semifinals as well as the final being played in London, they could play almost the entire tournament on home soil (save for the quarters).

Group D could be trickier to navigate than expected though for Gareth Southgate’s men. Despite having a Golden Boot favorite Harry Kane in their ranks, England did lose to the Czech Republic 2-1 on the road during qualifying. But also won 5-0 at home.

Croatia, despite fielding a lineup with an aging core, will be confident in knowing they defeated England in the semifinals of the 2018 World Cup.

The 44th-ranked Scots aren’t expected to advance from Group D but will have the advantage of playing two of their three group stage matches in Glasgow. They’ve been away from major competition since the 1998 World Cup but enter the Euros on the back of a run of just two losses (Nations League) in their past 16. That run did include a 1-0 win over the Czechs in the Nations League.

Group Prediction 1st-4th: England, Czech Republic, Croatia, Scotland

Group E – Spain, Poland, Sweden, Slovakia

Spain and Sweden were 1-2 in Group F of qualifying with Spain 8-2-0 (26 points) and Sweden 6-3-1 (21 points). During qualifying Spain won 3-0 at home, while the teams drew 1-1 in Sweden.

Spain will play all their group games at home, and have surprisingly not named a single Real Madrid player to the squad. Instead, Luis Enrique looks to be turning to the younger generation of Spanish stars. Gerard Moreno, who tallied 40 goals/assists across all comps for Villarreal this year will be one to watch for La Roja. They have been hit with a COVID crisis this week though and have been in isolation, while also naming several potential replacement players. There’s talent in the Spain squad, but it’s still a group which hasn’t advanced past the round of 16 at a major tournament since 2012.

Sweden’s powers will be weakend after the injury to the un-retired Zlatan Ibrahimovic, while Poland will look to ride Robert Lewandowski deep into the tournament. Lewandowski broke the all-time Bundesliga record for goals in a season with 41 this year. Poland had a strong qualifying, but new head coach Paulo Sousa who was appointed in January, is only 1-3-1 (WDL) since taking over.

Outsiders Slovakia were a third-place qualifier and allowed 11 goals to sides like Croatia, Wales, Hungary and Azerbaijan—not exactly offensive powerhouses. They could struggle against some top-end talent in this group.

Group Prediction 1st-4th: Spain, Poland, Sweden, Slovakia

Group F – France, Germany, Portugal, Hungary

The most intriguing group pits together the defending Euro champs (Portugal), defending World Cup champs (France) and the always dangerous Germans. However, Germany is coming off an embarrassing World Cup 2018 where they failed to even get out of the Group Stage. And then there’s Hungary.

Nobody is expecting the 37th-ranked Hungarians to advance from this group. However, they did top their group in the 2016 Euros, going 1-2-0 in a group where Portugal finished third. They would then bow out 4-0 to Belgium in the round of 16. They will get the advantage of playing two games at home in Budapest, though if you combine the records and scoring exploits of their counterparts in this group, they’re facing teams who combined during qualifying to go 20-3-3 with 77 goals scored compared to just 19 conceded.

Germany will play the entire group stage in Munich. This will also be the final tournament for Joachim Löw who departs his post as head coach after 15 years.

Group Prediction 1st-4th: France, Portugal, Germany, Hungary

Knockout Rounds

The matchup between the winner of Group D will face the runner-up of Group F in the round of 16. That sets up a colossal clash between in all likelihood England and one of France, Germany or Portugal. England “should” have an easier go of their group and would be at home, while their opponent could be more battle-tested.

There’s also a scenario where third place from Group F could be facing the Belgians in the round of 16.

Without touching on every possible matchup, I’m predicting a quarterfinal round which sees: Belgium vs Italy and France vs Czech Republic on one side, along with Spain vs England and Netherlands vs Turkey on the other.

For as great a squad as Belgium has, they just can’t seem to get over the hump and claim a major prize. While Italy are scorching hot coming into this competition and I’m predicting them to edge past France in the semis.

Turkey are a true dark horse, but they’ve only lost one of their past 13 matches. During that time they’ve drawn with Germany, Russia and Croatia, while taking wins off Russia and the Netherlands. A second place finish in Group A could see them face Denmark and the Netherlands respectively in the first two knockout rounds—matches they definitely stand a chance in.

YouTube video

Playing potentially every game besides the quarters at Wembley will give England a big advantage and they have a squad capable of going deep. I’ll take them to defeat Spain in the quarters, before taking down a surprise Turkish side in the semis.

From there, despite the home field, I’m taking Italy over England in the final.

Euro 2020 Knockout Round Picks

Quarterfinals: Italy over Belgium, France over Czech Republic, England over Spain, Turkey over Netherlands
Semifinals: Italy over France, England over Turkey
Finals: Italy over England

Additional Euro 2020 Coverage

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