Guatemala vs Jamaica Prediction & Odds – Gold Cup Quarterfinals
- Guatemala takes on Jamaica in the Gold Cup quarterfinals on Sunday, July 9th, at 5:00 pm ET
- These countries have met on three occasions since 2011, with the Reggae Boyz going 2-0-1 against their CONCACAF counterparts
- Get our Guatemala vs Jamaica prediction and odds below
On Sunday night, two more countries will advance to the Gold Cup semifinals. While most eyes will be on USA vs Canada, we want to provide a Guatemala vs Jamaica prediction, as it is a match that is arguably just as intriguing. For the Guatemalans, the quarterfinal round is usually uncharted territory. In fact, they have only reached the quarters in one of the last 13 Gold Cup tournaments.
Their path to qualification this summer was not an easy one either. On the final matchday of the group stages, they looked to surely be heading home, at the hands of Guadeloupe. However, a 75th-minute go-ahead goal from Carlos Mejia and penalty save from Nicolas Hagen on the other end sent Luis Fernando Tena’s side through.
Guatemala vs Jamaica Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Guatemala | +450 |
| Jamaica | -150 |
| Draw | +285 |
Now, they face Jamaica, which will be one of their hardest tests of the summer. The current moneyline odds favor Jamaica quite heavily at -150, giving them an implied win probability of 60%. On top of that, they have -300 odds to advance to the semifinals, should the match need more than 90 minutes. All in all, it is quite evident that there is not much faith being shown towards Guatemala.
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🧤⚽️🔥 ¡Hagen ataja el penal!
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— TUDN USA (@TUDNUSA) July 5, 2023
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Odds as of July 8th from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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In reality, Jamaica should be favored heavily too. Heimir Hallgrímsson’s squad might not be the biggest or best CONCACAF side, but they have a ton of talent on paper with the likes of Michail Antonio, Andre Blake, Demarai Gray, Leon Bailey and Bobby Decordova-Reid. Moreover, the Gold Cup is a competition they really thrive in, reaching the semifinals in three of their last four campaigns and the final in two of them.
Over/Under Odds
Despite the breadth of attacking talent for Jamaica, this game is leaning towards staying under 2.5 total goals. Currently, the under at that total has odds of -155, while the reverse option sits at +125. In their combined six Gold Cup matches, the over and under at this total have both hit 50% of the time. In their three head-to-head matches, they have eclipsed 2.5 total goals in two out of three.
Guatemala vs Jamaica Head-to-Head Statistics
| 1.33 | Goals per game | 3.33 |
| 1.42 | Expected goals per game | 1.66 |
| 0.66 | Goals allowed per game | 0.66 |
| 1.40 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.07 |
| 49.7% | Possession % | 51.0% |
| 66.6% | Clean Sheet % | 33.3% |
| 12.0 | Shots per game | 13.7 |
| W-D-W-L-W | Recent Form Guide (All Comps) | W-W-D-L-L |
Stats in the table from 2023 Gold Cup play
Props – Bailey to Find the Back of the Net
Additionally, a play I like that might surprise people is Leon Bailey to score anytime, with odds of +220. The Aston Villa forward is the fourth most favored player to score on the night, and put one away in his last appearance versus Trinidad and Tobago. Bailey adds pace to this Reggae Boyz attack and I liked how active he has been so far. He has taken seven shots in his two starts, compared to Antonio who has only mustered one shot, with no goals, despite being the main target up front. For me, Bailey seems the most likely to score given Antonio’s Jamaican scoring drought, and at +220 it has a lot of value.
Leon Bailey adds to the Jamaican advantage! 😤🇯🇲 pic.twitter.com/OFXT5jkErq
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 28, 2023
Guatemala vs Jamaica Projected Lineups and Injuries
Guatemala Projected Lineup: Hagen, Ardon, Samayoa, Pinto, Herrera, Saravia, Castellanos, Mejia, Galindo, Mendez-Laing, Rubin
Major Injuries & Absences: None
Jamaica Projected Lineup: Blake, Lawrence, Mariappa, Lowe, Lembikisa, Gray, Latibeaudiere, Lambert, Reid, Antonio, Bailey
Major Injuries & Absences: None
Guatemala vs Jamaica Prediction
Finally, it is time to make our Guatemala vs Jamaica prediction. Personally, I am riding with the chalk here and siding with Jamaica. While the underdog story for Guatemala is a fun one, Jamaica have looked sharp in this tournament. They had the lead against the United States for nearly 70 minutes and put on some great offensive displays against Trinidad and Saint Kitts. While the competition levels were definitely lower, hopefully that gives their offense some added confidence headed into the knockouts.
Despite the Jamaica moneyline not having a ton of value, there is another solid play that favors them. The odds for them to score over 1.5 total goals sit at -105, which is a really good play. This obviously favors Jamaica while accounting for Guatemala keeping the match within reach, or even scoring.
Guatemala vs Jamaica Picks: Bailey to score (+225) & Jamaica to score more than 1.5 goals (-105)
Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
