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After 6-0-0 Start, Inter Milan Lead Serie A, See Odds Shorten to +270

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 3:13 PM UTC

San Siro
Milan's legendary San Siro stadium plays host to Inter v Juve on Sunday in a clash of Serie A's top two. Photo By Oscar (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Inter are the early Serie A pace-setters
  • Juve still in the hunt, dropping just two points
  • Atalanta continues to impress after qualifying for Champions league

After a perfect start to the new Serie A season, Inter Milan head the league with 18 points, two ahead of Juventus.  The current champions are still favored though, with average odds of -180, but that has worsened from the -230 average they had before the seaon began. During that same period, Inter’s odds have almost been cut in half, from a +520 average to now +270.

So, the question we’re asking is could this now be Inter’s season? Or is now the time to bet on Juve at an improved price  before they start to hit their rhythm? We’ll also be looking to see if there is any value elsewhere down the table.

Serie A 2019/20 Odds

Team Current League Position Odds to Win Serie A
Juventus 2 -175
Inter Milan 1 +275
Napoli 4 +600
Atalanta 3 +5000
AS Roma 5 +6600
Lazio 6 +8000
AC Milan 16 +12500
Fiorentina 10 +20000
Torino 8 +20000
Bologna 11 +50000

*Odds taken on 10/02/19 

It’s interesting that the above table of Serie A odds shows  there are so far no new challengers to the Serie A establishment.

Inter’s successful summer transfer window has paid dividends with a flying start to the season. Manager Antonio Conte splashed plenty of cash in the summer and so was hoping that his new charges would hit the ground running. And they have.

Among numerous deals over the offseason, Conte finally managed to land Manchester United’s Romelu Lukaku for a cool €64 million – a fee that took their summer spending to over €150 million.

Inter off to a Flyer

So far, the signs are good with the new faces all playing a part in Inter’s 100% start. While it’s still early days, wins over city rivals AC and fellow top-six team Lazio suggest they are capable of beating anyone and not just picking off Serie A’s low-hanging fruit.

Juve, it should be noted, have also made a good start to the season and are only without a 100% record due to a goalless draw away at Fiorentina. They remain the team to beat and their opening eight games included a thrilling 4-3 win over Napoli – their closest rivals for the title last season – so there remains little room for error for those in the chasing pack.

AC off the Pace

Milan’s city counterparts, AC also spent big this summer, spending over €100 million which included the acquisitions of Leao from Lille and Kessie from Atalanta, but their start has been poor with just two wins from their first six games. They lie 16th and their chances of making top six, let alone to challenge Juve, look slim.

Ancelotti’s Men Make Steady Progress

Napoli, in an attempt to close the gap on Juve, also spent big in the summer, with Carlo Ancelotti spending nearly €90 million to bring in the likes of Manolas from Roma, Meret from Udinese and Elmas from Fenerbahce.

Four wins and two defeats for Napoli represents a steady if unspectacular start, with one of the defeats being the aforementioned loss to Juve and the other being a shock home defeat by Cagliari. Along the way, they also managed to beat reigning Champions League holders Liverpool 2-0 at the San Paolo stadium. The +600 on offer for them to win the Serie A, is probably where the value lies.

Roma & Atalanta in Race for Top Four

Roma’s business over the summer also sent out a signal of intent – they spent over €98 million – and three wins out of their opening six games represents decent progress. They finished sixth last season, just three points shy of the Champions League spots, and while the title is probably beyond them, a top four finish this time around looks realistic.

Atalanta were last season’s surprise team and qualified for the Champions League by finishing an impressive third. Some relatively modest but sensible summer spending looks to have strengthened them overall and four wins out of their opening six games suggests more of the same this season. While they appear unlikely to have enough depth in their squad to win Serie A, the speculators may fancy a piece of the +5000 on offer.

Lazio in Hunt but Maybe Inter’s Year?

Lazio are the other team in the frame with a realistic shout of the top four and did some tidy business over the summer with ten new faces arriving in Rome. Three wins from six represents a good start and while they won’t win it, a Champions League place is in their sights.

So, it’s still Juve’s to lose but with the Turin team having one eye on a long run in the Champions League, this could be the year the run is broken. Inter may, just may, be the team to take their title.

My pick: Inter to win Serie A (+275)

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