- Inter Milan hosts Roma in Serie A play on Saturday, April 23rd at 12:00 pm ET. Inter Milan are -157 moneyline favorites
- The hosts could grab poll position of Serie A with a win, as they currently only sit two points behind AC Milan with a game in hand
- Get the Inter Milan vs Roma odds, analysis, and betting prediction below
With only a handful of Serie A matchdays left in the 2021/22 campaign, Inter Milan vs Roma on Saturday afternoon has to be one of the tastier affairs remaining.
First, this game is simply oozing with storylines. Of course, everyone will be talking about Jose Mourinho returning once again to his old stomping grounds. The Portuguese manager has seen defeat in his two other matches against Inter Milan, and will try to redeem himself at the San Siro. Conversely, Edin Dzeko faces off against his old club, Roma, for the fifth time in his career.
Nonetheless, this match has larger implications than just a few homecomings. Inter Milan are in hot pursuit of the Scudetto, and a win on Saturday could leave the title race in their hands. For Roma, they desperately need points if they want to edge out Juventus for Italy’s last Champions League spot.
Inter Milan vs Roma Odds
Odds as of Apr 21st at Barstool Sportsbook
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For this match, the moneyline heavily favors the Nerazzurri with Serie A odds of -157.
Over/Under and Spread
Furthermore, goals are expected in this match as the over on 2.5 total goals sits at -141. This is to be expected though as Inter Milan have the best attack in Serie A. Moreover, in the last five head-to-head meetings between these sides, this pick has hit 80% of the time, with an average of 3.4 goals per match.
Also, there is some good value in getting Roma to cover the +0.5 spread with odds of +133.
Inter Milan vs Roma Prediction
Regardless, Inter Milan have been ruthless against Roma this season. In fact, across two matches, Simone Inzaghi’s side has an aggregate score of 5-0 against Mourinho’s La Lupa.
In the reverse Serie A fixture, Inter Milan controlled 66% of the possession, while Roma only managed to get one shot on target.
Inter Milan vs Roma Serie A Statistics
|2.13||Goals per game||1.64|
|2.07||Expected goals per game||1.69|
|0.78||Goals allowed per game||1.12|
|1.06||Expected goals allowed per game||1.02|
|85.9%||Passing Accuracy %||82.8%|
|17.1||Shots per game||15.4|
This is a massive credit to Inter’s backline who are a true defensive unit that not only smothers attackers, but also forces them into difficult shots. To make things worse, Lautaro Martinez did not even come off the bench that day.
📊 | STATS
🐂 Lautaro Martinez’s goal after 3 minutes and 1 second was the fastest goal scored in a Milan derby since Matias Vecino’s on 17 March 2019, scored after 2 minutes and 31 seconds. Lautaro provided the assist that day. ⚡#Lautaro #DerbyMilano pic.twitter.com/UgGyELMuke
— Inter 🏆🇮🇹 (@Inter_en) April 21, 2022
Now, Inter are as hot as ever, winning four consecutive matches across the Serie A and Coppa Italia, conceding just once in the process. Il Biscione also has the best home record in Serie A, with their only two losses coming at the hands of AC Milan and Sassuolo.
Roma Unbeaten in 12 Serie A Matches
However, in all fairness, this is an improved Roma side under Mourinho. The Giallorossi are only four points off their point total from last season and have put together a remarkable streak of 12 games unbeaten in Serie A play.
— AS Roma English (@ASRomaEN) April 21, 2022
Again, Inter Milan have an extremely stingy defense. But, the probable attacking trio of Tammy Abraham, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Lorenzo Pellegrini is one that is very threatening. Together the three players have 53 overall goal contributions across all competitions.
— AS Roma English (@ASRomaEN) April 20, 2022
Yet, for this game to go in their favor, Chris Smalling and Rui Patricio have to put in massive shifts. Roma’s back half has been their weak point this year, which is evident in their last two run-outs vs this Inter side.
Inter Milan vs Roma Projected Lineups and Injuries
Inter Milan Projected Lineup: Handanovic, Bastoni, Skriniar, de Vrij, Perisic, Calhanoglu, Brozovic, Barella, Dumfries, Dzeko, Martinez
Inter Milan Injuries & Suspensions: Vidal (questionable)
Roma Projected Lineup: Patricio, Ibanez, Smalling, Mancini, Zalewski, Cristante, Veretout, Karsdorp, Pellegrini, Mkhitaryan, Abraham
Roma Injuries & Suspensions: Zaniolo & Fuzato
Inter Milan vs Roma Best Bet
Overall, the best bet for this match is the -1.5 spread in favor of Inter Milan with odds of +180. Again, this result has hit in their last three outings and with title hopes on the line, I fully expect Inter Milan to breeze past Roma.
Pick: Inter Milan -1.5 (+180)