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Italy vs Spain Odds & Prediction – Euro 2020 Semifinals July 6

Quinn Allen

by Quinn Allen in Soccer

Jul 5, 2021 · 8:34 AM PDT

Italy vs Spain
Italy's Lorenzo Insigne celebrates after scoring his side's second goal during a Euro 2020 soccer championship quarterfinal match between Belgium and Italy at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Friday, July 2, 2021. (Andreas Gebert/Pool Photo via AP)
  • Italy and Spain clash in the Euro 2020 semifinals at Wembley on Tuesday
  • The Italians head into this fixture as a slim +145 favorite
  • We have the odds, preview, and prediction below

The Euro 2020 semifinals are now set. With both games taking place at Wembley, Italy and Spain lock horns on Tuesday for a spot in the finals on the line, followed by England facing Denmark on Wednesday.

The Azzurri took down the high-flying Belgians in the quarterfinals in a 2-1 victory thanks to a beautiful winner from Napoli standout Lorenzo Insigne. The Spaniards meanwhile had a slightly tougher road to the last four as they beat the 10-man Swiss in penalties.


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There’s a rich history between Italy and Spain on this stage. They’ve met in three straight European Championships ahead of Tuesday, with the Italians knocking out La Roja in the round of 16 back in the 2016 tournament. However, other than the lone defeat, Espana has won four of the last seven meetings, including three draws.

Italy vs Spain Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Italy vs Spain ITA pk (-141) | ESP pk (+117) ITA +145 | ESP +210 | DRAW +220 Ov 2.5 (+130) | Un 2.5 (-162)

All odds as of July 4th at DraftKings

Italy Continues to Impress

The Italians have been arguably the most impressive side in this entire tournament and they continued to prove it against the #1 ranked country in the world, Belgium.

Robert Mancini had his tactics spot-on against the Red Devils. Italy came out firing from the get-go and was constantly pressing and causing the Belgians to make bad decisions with the ball.

It also didn’t take the Azzurri very long to finally take the lead. In the 31st minute, they forced Belgium to make another mistake in their own end, which saw Inter star Nicolo Barella weave his way between three defenders with some nifty footwork before firing home a fierce strike past Thibaut Courtois. Insigne then put his side two goals to the good just 13 minutes later with an ambitious run from half which saw him curl an absolute stunner into the right side of the net.

Italy has now bagged 11 goals in five appearances at Euro 2020 while conceding just twice. Spain will surely be a tough task, but Mancini’s squad just proved they’re capable of beating practically anyone. The Italians have been hit with a massive blow at the back though, with left-back Leonardo Spinazzola rupturing his Achilles in the quarterfinals. He’s been one of their best players in the competition and will definitely be missed, however, they have enough options to replace him. Chelsea’s Emerson will likely be the top choice.

Spain Need to be More Clinical

While their 1-1 result with Switzerland ended in a victory from spot-kicks, the Spaniards had a clear-cut opportunity to finish things up without going to extra time. Swiss midfielder Remo Freuler was handed a red card in the 77th minute, but Spain failed to capitalize on countless chances.

To put it into perspective, Spain had 28 shots in the match and 10 on target, yet only one found the back of the net. Credit needs to be given to Jann Sommer for a tremendous showing in between the sticks but nonetheless, La Roja needs to be more clinical like they were prior to the quarters.

Luis Enrique’s side annihilated Slovakia 5-0 in their last group stage clash then also beat Croatia 5-3 in the round of 16. Spain will have a tough time breaking down a strong Italy backline therefore any opportunities that do come about in front of goal must be put away.

Pablo Sarabia seems to be Enrique’s only doubt for this huge match after he came off at halftime against Switzerland. It’s not yet known if he’ll be able to feature or not, but the Spaniards have a plethora of options to replace the attacking midfielder.

Italy vs Spain Key Stats

5-0-0 Record in Euro 2020 3-2-0
11 Goals Scored 12
2 Goals Conceded 5
14.8 Shots Per Match 15.6
5.2 Shots on Target Per Match 7.8

Italy vs Spain Prediction

This is truly a historic clash between two of Europe’s best footballing countries. While Spain has had more success against the Italians in the last nine years, I’m not convinced they can get it done here. Their attack looked toothless against Switzerland and has also been vulnerable defensively, most notably in the Croatia game.

As for Italy, they’ve shown no weaknesses and are firing on all cylinders right now. I expect them to run riot on the Spaniards and book their ticket to the final of Euro 2020.

Pick: Italy +145

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