- Value could be had with smaller clubs as Portugal’s best teams are involved in European action midweek
- Surprising league leaders Famalicao (+440) travel to Lisbon to face an out-of-sorts Sporting (-189)
- Undefeated Boavista (+240) could take a big step on the road at feisty Gil Vicente (+119)
Matchday 6 is upon us in the Liga NOS, and needless to say there have been some positive and negative surprises through a month-plus of play in Portugal’s top division.
If you had Famalicao (newly-promoted) and Boavista (8th last season) as the last two undefeated teams standings, credit to you — nobody else did.
Amongst the big three, it’s been far from smooth sailing.
Sporting has dropped points in three of five matches and fired manager Marcel Keizer, Benfica was dropped 2-0 at home by Porto and is off to a rough start in the Champions League, and the latter was unceremoniously bounced from that competition by Russian outfit Krasnodar.
Moreirense vs. Benfica Odds
|Moreirense||+1.5 (-120)||+725||O 2.5 (-114)|
|Benfica||-1.5 (+100)||-303||U 2.5 (-106)|
*All odds taken 09/18/19
Benfica (4-0-1) were clearly second-best in their 2-1 home defeat against Red Bull Leipzig mid-week, and now face a tricky test at Moreirense (2-1-2) on short rest Saturday.
While it’s unlikely Moreirense pulls out a victory — Benfica won this match 4-0 last season — there may be some spread value with the hosts.
Make no mistake: Moreirense’s only wins this season have come against fresh-to-the-division Gil Vicente (3-0) and 10-man Portimonense (1-0). Avoid the moneyline.
But, with Benfica reeling from a Champions League humbling on Wednesday, that spread could be enticing.
Pick: Moreirense +1.5
Tondela vs. Guimaraes Odds
|Tondela||+0.5 (-108)||+210||O 2.5 (–105)|
|Guimaraes||-0.5 (-112)||+127||U 2.5 (-115)|
After saving themselves from relegation on the final matchday last season, Tondela (2-2-1) have come out of the gate relatively flying ahead of Sunday’s contest against Guimaraes (1-3-1).
Two road wins at Maritimo (3-2) and Rio Ave (4-2), along with a credible 0-0 home draw against Santa Clara, have thrust Tondela into the uncharted waters of 6th place — not bad for the club which only contested its first-ever top flight season in 2015-16.
Guimaraes, meanwhile, have felt the added travel of Europa League qualifying during a mediocre start to the domestic season.
While Tondela moneyline is a courageous-yet-enticing pick here — especially given Guimaraes’ Thursday trip to Belgium in Europa League — the smarter play would be to take the hosts or draw using the spread.
Pick: Tondela +0.5 (-120)
Gil Vicente vs Boavista Odds
|Gil Vicente||-0.5 (-106)||+119||O 2 (-114)|
|Boavista||+0.5 (-114)||+240||U 2 (-106)|
Oh, Gil Vicente (1-2-2).
You started so brightly, with the shocking home win against giants Porto on Matchday 1, but have cooled off remarkably quickly: One goal over your last four league games, from which you’ve drawn just two points.
We want you to succeed, we really do with grizzled, lovable coach Vitor Oliveira at the helm.
But that requires goals, and if you can’t score any…
Take either the under (-106) or Boavista +0.5 (-114) here, as Sunday’s visitors are in decent form and unlikely to take their first loss of the season against relegation fodder like Gil Vicente. Not based on the run of form of either team.
Pick: Under or Boavista +0.5
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