After Matchday 8 Draw, Turkey Favored Over France to Win Euro 2020 Qualifying Group H
- Turkey odds-on to win Group H
- World champions held to draw in Paris
- Both teams set to qualify
Turkey and France are level on points at the top of Euro 2020 qualifying Group H. Turkey hold the tiebreaker over the world champions thanks to a 2-0 win in June and a shock draw on October 14th. With two matches left to play each, Turkey are the odds-on favorites to win the group.
France host Moldova for their next group match on November 14th before travelling to Albania on November 17th. Turkey welcome Iceland to Istanbul a couple of hours before France face Moldova and close out their qualification campaign away to Andorra.
Odds to Win Euro 2020 Qualifying Group H
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Turkey | -138 |
| France | +110 |
*Odds taken 10/17/19
Crucial Iceland Clash
Turkey’s surprisingly successful qualifying campaign has been based on a solid defense. Şenol Güneş’ team have kept clean sheets in six of their eight qualifiers thus far with Leicester City centre-back Çağlar Söyüncü and Juventus youngster Merih Demiral forming a partnership at the heart of the defense.
The Iceland fixture is the only match where either side will realistically drop points. The feel-good story of Euro 2016 are still in contention to snatch an automatic qualification place (though they would also need Turkey to slip up against Andorra) and they handed the group leaders their only defeat of the group stage in Reykjavik back in June.
Latest draw pots:
Pot 1: Italy, Belgium, Ukraine, England, Netherlands, Spain
Pot 2: Poland, Turkey, Croatia, Republic of Ireland, Russia, Germany
Pot 3: France, Denmark, Czech Republic, Portugal, Austria, Sweden
Pot 4: Finland, Hungary, Switzerland, Bosnia, Scotland, Georgia— Dale Johnson (@DaleJohnsonESPN) October 15, 2019
Set Pieces
Like on their famous run at the last Euros, Iceland are dependent on set pieces. They have collected points against weaker opponents, but it hasn’t been by blowing them away. The gameplan is to sit deep, keep the opponent out, and look to snatch a goal. That worked perfectly against Turkey in June with two first-half goals scored by center-back Ragnar Sigurdsson from set-pieces.
Two of the three goals Turkey has conceded in the group came in that match. It’s not a stretch to suggest that how Turkey cope with Iceland’s set pieces will decide who tops Group H. Notably, the other goal Turkey conceded was an Olivier Giroud header from a corner in Paris.
Group H = ????????????
Who are you backing?#EURO2020 pic.twitter.com/vL7SMRghr5
— UEFA EURO 2020 (@EURO2020) October 11, 2019
It’s no secret that an away day in Reykjavik is a different experience from a home match in Istanbul. The crowd will be wild when Iceland visit in November, expecting to see their side confirm a place in Euro 2020. Home advantage is significant for Turkey – it would be a huge shock to see Iceland take anything from the match. Even if the set-piece struggles resurface, Hakan Calhanoglu and co. should have enough quality to breakdown the Iceland defense.
Who to Back?
Backing France to win Group H is effectively about whether Turkey can beat Iceland in Istanbul. Didier Deschamps’ side made light work of Moldova and Albania earlier in the group and should win both matches comfortably.
Despite the obvious weakness defending set-pieces, Turkey should get the better of Iceland in Istanbul. The Euro 2008 semifinalists have the group’s joint-leading goalscorer in Cenk Tosun and are playing their best football in several years after a disappointing period.
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
