Netherlands vs South Africa Odds & Prediction – Women’s World Cup Round of 16
- The Netherlands take on South Africa in the Round of 16 at the 2023 Women’s World Cup on Saturday, August 5th, at 10pm ET
- The Netherlands topped Group E on seven points, while only conceding one goal in their first three matches
- Get our Netherlands vs South Africa prediction and odds below
On Saturday night, South Africa plays the Netherlands in their first ever knockout match at the Women’s World Cup. In six World Cup matches so far, Banyana Banyana is 1-1-4, earning their first victory just a few days ago against 16th ranked Italy.
An own goal from Benedetta Orsi brought South Africa back into the contest, before goals from Hildah Magaia and Thembi Kgatlana gave them the lead on two separate occasions.
Luckily, Kgatlana’s strike happened in the 92nd minute, and was enough to seal the victory and a spot in the knockouts for the AFCON side. Beating two European sides in a row in no small task though, and our Netherlands vs South Africa prediction will reflect that.
Netherlands vs South Africa Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Netherlands | -650 |
| South Africa | +1200 |
| Draw | +700 |
The Netherlands are juicy favorites on Saturday night with moneyline odds of -650, equating to an implied win probability of 86.7%. Their odds to advance are even greater at -1400, while South Africa’s odds sit an improved +750. In their last three head-to-head matches, the Dutch were victorious on every occasion, outscoring the AFCON side by a seven goal margin over the 270 minutes of play dating back to 2016.
Odds as of August 5th at DraftKings. For some great offers for your Japan vs Spain bets, be sure to claim a DraftKings promo code.
Netherlands vs South Africa Over/Under Odds
Additionally, the over on 3.5 total goals sits at -105, while the reverse option is not far behind at -115. There has been quite a bit of line movement on this one, as the under was at -145 just last night.
🔥 Final #NEDRSA preps! 🔜#FIFAWWC #TheOranjeBeat pic.twitter.com/kFETqbpKK3
— OranjeLeeuwinnen (@oranjevrouwen) August 5, 2023
These odds present great value, especially at this World Cup, where 56% of games have stayed under an even tighter 2.5 goals. While four of South Africa’s six World Cup matches have surpassed this total goal tally, defense wins out in a lot of these contests, and the Netherlands have only conceded one goal so far. In fact, their back three of Sherida Spitse, Stefanie van der Gragt and Dominque Janssen have been practically perfect so far at this World Cup.
Head-to-Head Statistics
| 3.00 | Goals per game | 2.00 |
| 2.30 | Expected goals per game | 1.90 |
| 0.33 | Goals allowed per game | 2.00 |
| 0.46 | Expected goals allowed per game | 2.06 |
| 60.3% | Possession % | 36.7% |
| 66.6% | Clean Sheet % | 0.0% |
| 19.6 | Shots per game | 11.7 |
| W-D-W-W-W | Recent Form Guide (All Comps) | W-D-L-W-L |
Stats in the table from three World Cup matches so far.
Props – Jill Roord to Have Two or More Shots on Target
A prop I really like in this match is for Dutch midfielder Jill Roord to put up two or more shots on target. While I think this game will be offensively dryer than some expect, the Netherlands will surely find the back of the goal a couple of times.
Moreover, this is a team that is not afraid to test the goalkeeper — against Vietnam they took a staggeringly high 42 shots.
Jill Roord with the ambitious effort from distance 👀 pic.twitter.com/GtitTzCI1g
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) August 1, 2023
Roord accounted for 13 of them, with five falling on frame of the goal. This brings her shots on target per ninety minutes tally to 2.01, which is a little inflated due to the emphatic 7-0 result.
Nonetheless, we know Roord is a scorer, bagging three goals at this World Cup already. This play offers decent value at -125, considering this is another match where the Netherlands are big favorites and will see a lot of the possession and chances.
Netherlands vs South Africa Projected Lineups and Injuries
Netherlands Projected Lineup: van Domselaar, Janssen, van der Gragt, Spitse, Brugts, van de Donk, Groenen, Roord, Pelova, Martens, Snoeijs
Major Injuries & Absences: Beerensteyn (questionable)
South Africa Projected Lineup: Swart, Dhlamini, Matlou, Mbane, Ramalepe, Gamede, Biyana, Motlhalo, Seoposenwe, Kgatlana, Magaia
Major Injuries & Absences: Jane
Netherlands vs South Africa Prediction
Overall, despite South Africa’s fun, attacking nature, I think they fall flat against the Netherlands, especially if they just try to outscore them. In my eyes, the Netherlands are a side that has the potential to make another really deep run at the Women’s World Cup.
They are extremely well-drilled and showed against the United States that they can play bully ball to an extent, against offensive teams. Oranje leeuwinnen has a plethora of good attackers too, in Esmee Brugts and Lieke Martens, so I have no doubt in their ability to find the back of the net.
It does not help that in the past four years, South Africa is 1-2-9 against European opponents, being outscored by a 36-15 margin. The historical trends are all pointing towards a Netherlands victory and I cannot disagree with a probable 2-0 and 3-0 finish.
Nonetheless, from a betting angle, I am riding with under 3.5 goals and Jill Roord to get two or more shots on target. If you want a bet more in favor of the Dutch, look towards your single game parlays and try to get a Netherlands win combined with the under mentioned below.
Netherlands vs South Africa Picks: Under 3.5 total goals (-115) & Jill Roord to get two or more shots on target (-125)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
