Porto vs Benfica Odds & Prediction – Primeira Liga Week 10 (Oct 21)

• Porto hosts Benfica in Matchday 10 of the Primeira Liga season on Friday, October 21st at 3:15 pm ET
• Benfica have failed to defeat Porto in their last nine tries across all competitions
• Get the Porto vs Benfica picks and betting predictions below

The Primeira Liga table is as close as ever, ahead of Porto vs Benfica on Friday afternoon. Of course, the hosts are trying to defend their 2021/22 league title, a trophy they won by a six-point cushion. However, an early season defeat away to Rio Ave has thrown a wrench into those plans.

Currently, Benfica hold the top spot, three points ahead of the Dragões on 25 points. All in all, it has been one of the best-ever starts to a season for As Águias, going unbeaten in all of their 17 matches so far. Most impressively, Roger Schmidt’s side has stood toe-to-toe with some of Europe’s biggest names.

The importance of this edition of O Clássico cannot be understated. Points won in head-to-head matches between Porto, Benfica and Sporting are hard to come by, and can ultimately define a season. Friday will be the 251st meeting between these two illustrious Portuguese sides, in what should be a remarkable contest.

Porto vs Benfica Odds

Odds as of October 20th from Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this Primeira Liga match and receive a unique sign-up bonus.

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Overall, despite their position in the table, Benfica are the underdogs with moneyline odds of +195. Conversely, Porto also have plus odds, at a shorter value of +123. In truth, this is the fair value given that Benfica has lost to Porto in three consecutive matches, by an aggregate score of 7-1. Their last win versus Porto came in 2019, with an 0-2-7 record since.

📡🔴 Acompanha em direto!#FCPSLB #LigaPortugal

— SL Benfica (@SLBenfica) October 20, 2022

Porto vs Benfica Over/Under
Additionally, this game could go either way in terms of the over/under. In fact, the over and under on 2.5 total goals have respective odds of -120 and -110. In their last ten head-to-head contests, there has been an even split on the over/under at the 2.5 goal mark. Furthermore, in their last ten combined matches across all competitions, the under has hit 60% of the time. For that reason, I would stray away from an over/under play on Friday’s Porto vs Benfica match.

Porto vs Benfica Statistics

Stats in table from 2022-23 Primeira Liga play.

Gonçalo Ramos to Score Odds

Regardless, one extra play that I really do fancy is Gonçalo Ramos to score anytime. The Portuguese forward has six goals in eight league starts this year, almost equaling his mark of seven goals from last season. His anytime goal scorer odds sit at +180, the third most valuable on the board. I find particular value in this because his goal-scoring rate is 0.95 goals per 90 minutes; the highest of any player on both sides of the ball.

Porto vs Benfica Projected Lineups and Injuries

Porto Projected Lineup: Costa, Sanusi, Carmo, Cardoso, Conceicao, Pepe, Eustaquio, Uribe, Otavio, Taremi, Evanilson

Major Injuries & Absences: Mario (questionable), Galeno (questionable), Pepe

Benfica Projected Lineup: Vlachodimos, Grimaldo, Otamendi, Silva, Bah, Aursnes, Fernandez, Luis, Mario, Silva, Ramos

Major Injuries & Absences: Neres (questionable), Morato, Verissimo

Porto vs Benfica Prediction

Nonetheless, let’s divert our attention back to the match. While I think Benfica scores in this match, I favor Porto to prolong their dominance against arguably their biggest rivals.

So far this season, Porto’s home record is 5-0-1. Their only defeat came at the hands of Club Brugge in the Champions League, which is not surprising considering how they tore through that group. Moreover, going back to last year, Porto compiled a 15-2-0 record at home in the Primeira Liga. Porto are a menace at the Estádio do Dragão, and I think they could give Benfica their first major hiccup.

⌛ Tic tac tic tac ⌛

Falta muito para sexta-feira?🤩#FCPSLB pic.twitter.com/l2SugbY0q4

— FC Porto (@FCPorto) October 19, 2022

On the other side, David Neres’ injury really does hamper Benfica’s depth going forward. But, that is not their most critical area of concern. Benfica’s back line is very good over the majority of games; they have even been praised by me. Nonetheless, they always concede against competent front lines. Look at Rio Ave for example; they are in 13th place but have a top-five attack in goals scored. They put two past Benfica just a couple of weeks ago.

𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲 𝗱𝗲 𝗹𝗮 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲 👌🤩 Em setembro ninguém foi melhor do que ele 💙

Mehdi Taremi ⭐️ Melhor Jogador da Liga em setembro ⚽️
Mehdi Taremi ⭐️ Best player of the Portuguese League in September ⚽️#FCPorto @MehdiTaremi9 pic.twitter.com/BNOcUObSEX

— FC Porto (@FCPorto) October 19, 2022

In turn, I see them struggling against the likes of Mehdi Taremi and Evanilson, which is why I am sticking with the Porto moneyline.

Pick: Porto Moneyline (+123)

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