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Portugal vs USA Odds & Prediction – Women’s World Cup (Aug 1)

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Jul 31, 2023 · 10:29 PM PDT

United States midfielder Julie Ertz. Portugal vs USA
Jul 27, 2023; Wellington, NZL; United States midfielder Julie Ertz (8) and Netherlands midfielder Sherida Spitse (8) react after the match for the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup at Wellington Regional Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports
  • It’s Portugal vs USA in the third round of Group E matches in the Women’s World Cup
  • It all kicks off in the famous Eden Park, Auckland at 03:00 am ET on Tuesday, August 1
  • Read on here for our Portugal vs USA analysis and predictions

In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the USWNT complete their group stage games at the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup. Portugal vs USA kicks off in Eden Park, Auckland at 03:00 am ET.

The USA’s defense of their World Cup crown suffered a blip in game 2 when they were held to a 1-1 draw by the Netherlands but a draw or win here against Portugal will take them through to the knockout phase. The Portuguese need to win and hope for Vietnam to do them a favor by beating the Dutch.

Who can pick up their first win of the tournament? See our Portugal vs USA picks below as we look closely at their Women’s World Cup odds.

Portugal vs USA Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Portugal +950
USA -400
Draw +475

At odds of -400 for the win, the USA has an implied probability of 80% to win this Group E match, while at +950 for the win, Portugal has an implied win probability of 9.5%.

The total of 3.5 goals is listed in plus money for the Over at +200 while the Under is -310 in the DraftKings Sportsbook odds.

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How to Watch Portugal vs USA

Viewers can watch Tuesday’s Portugal vs USA World Cup clash on FOX and Telemundo in the US at 03:00 am EST on Sunday.

Points on the Board for Portugal

In their first World Cup finals appearance, the Portuguese have acquitted themselves well and in game 2 managed to get their first-ever win – a comfortable 2-0 victory over fellow rookies, Vietnam. Even in game 1, when they narrowly lost 1-0 to the Netherlands, they played well.

The win against the Vietnamese was a continuation of that good form, but on that occasion were able to take a couple of the chances they created – the goals coming in minutes 7 and 21 from Encarnacao and Nazareth. In the whole game, they had no less than 29 attempts on goal.

Favor Needed from Vietnam

Interestingly, the US drew with the Netherlands, who only narrowly beat Portugal, so while this initially looks like a big ask for the Portuguese, they will believe they can get points here. They do however need a miracle to qualify as, even if they were to beat the USA, they need Vietnam to get the minimum of a draw against the Dutch.

But stranger things have happened, and there have already been several surprises in this tournament.

Portugal vs USA Head-to-Head Stats

1-0-1 WC 2023 Record 1-1-0
2 / 1 Goals For/Against 4 / 1
57 Possession (%)* 55
74.8 Pass Accuracy (%)* 71.1
29 FIFA World Ranking 1

* Stats from FBREF.com

No Easy Ride for the USA

The USA – five-time winners of this tournament – are in pole position in Group E but haven’t had it all their own way. In game 1 they didn’t need to be at their best to get past Vietnam – they won the game 3-0 – but in game 2 they came up against an experienced and motivated Netherlands team who were well deserving of the 1-1 draw.

As a result, the USA is only top of the group on goal difference and still has work to do to qualify for the knockout phase. A slip-up against the Portuguese and they could exit the tournament in the group stages for the first time ever.

A Point Needed Against the Portuguese

The flip side is that they only need a point, so there is no need for any gung-ho soccer against the Portuguese who themselves have to go all out for the win. This will suit the US who are happy to soak up pressure and play on the break.

Portugal vs USA Lineups and Injuries

Portugal Projected Lineup: Morais, Borges, Costa, Seica, Alves, Jacinto, Pinto (T), Marchao, Nazareth, Silva (J), Encarnacao.

Injuries & absences: Pinto (F).

USA Projected Lineup: Naeher, Fox, Ertz, Girma, Dunn, Sullivan, Demelo, Horan, Rodman, Smith, Morgan.

Injuries & absences: Lavelle.

Portugal vs USA Prediction

Portugal showed in defeat against the Netherlands that they are not to be underestimated, and this looks unlikely to be the easy win for the USA that the odds suggest.

The USA does, however, have more than enough quality to get the job done even though patience may be required. The value here is in trying to predict the score, which, for me, is a low-scoring USA win.

Portugal vs USA Pick: USA to win 2-0 (+330) at DraftKings.


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