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Spain vs Italy Odds & Prediction – Nations League Semifinals

John Dillon

by John Dillon in Soccer News

Updated Jun 15, 2023 · 9:49 AM PDT

Spain forward Alvaro Morata
Dec 6, 2022; Ar Rayyan, QATAR; Spain forward Alvaro Morata (7) moves the ball ahead of Morocco forward Abdelhamid Sabiri (11) during extra time in the round of sixteen match of the 2022 FIFA World Cup at Education City Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports
  • European giants meet in last four clash in Enschede, Netherlands at 2:45 pm ET on Thursday
  • Spain defeated Italy in the 2021 semifinal before losing in the final against France in Milan
  • See our Spain vs Italy prediction, odds and best bets for UEFA Nations League semifinals

Two European powerhouses clash in the UEFA Nations League semifinals in the Netherlands on Thursday. See the Spain vs Italy odds and our picks below. 

Both nations have been inconsistent recently. But Spain will be looking to reach its second successive final in the competition.

The Spanish side will also be looking to recover from a shock 2-0 defeat in Scotland in its last appearance in March – which was in Euro 2024 qualifying.

Similarly, Italy suffered a surprise 2-1 home defeat by England in the Euros in March. 

However, it had a slight recovery in a 2-0 win against the minnows of Malta last time out later in that month.

This semifinal takes place at the De Grolsch Veste arena in Enschede, with the Netherlands having met Croatia in the other last-four contest on Wednesday.

Spain vs Italy Odds

Result Moneyline
Spain +125
Italy +225
Draw +215

At DraftKings, Spain is a +125 favorite to win this tie despite its surprise setback in Scotland.

This was a major setback for new coach Luis De La Fuente in his second game in charge. Meanwhile, Italy is priced at +225 even though it is in greater need of some kind of international success after missing last winter’s World Cup in Qatar.

The draw after 90 minutes is rated at +215 with kick-off at 2:45 pm EST. Extra time and, possibly, penalties would follow.


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Spain vs Italy Over/Under & Spread

Italy has scored three times in its two competitive games in this calendar year although two came against tiny Malta.

Meanwhile, Spain memorably scored a 7-0 win over Costa Rica at the World Cup in Qatar. 

But it then found the target only twice subsequently in its following three games in the tournament.

It beat a weak Norway team 3-0 in Euros qualifying in March. But neither of these sides looks to be in prolific goalscoring mood based on recent form.

Therefore, the oddsmakers are offering decently generous odds of +125 for there to be three goals or more in Holland (Over 2.5).

There is a better price of +175 for there to be only one goal (Under 1.5).

Among the spread offers Spain is priced at +115 to win by one goal (Spread -0.5).

Furthermore, Italy is a wider +205 to win by one goal, which is an intriguing offer.

Spain vs Italy Preview

This is a rematch of the 2021 semifinal in Milan in which Spain was a 2-1 winner against the Italians.

That ended Italy’s world record 37-game unbeaten streak under coach Roberto Mancini.

Following that, Spain was beaten 2-1 by France in the final of the most recent Nations League in Milan in 2021.

This time, Spain may not be able to call on young starlet forward Dani Olmo of RB Leipzig as he recovers from injury.

So they may rely on stalwart Alvaro Morata. However, this is a time of change for the Spanish national side – symbolized by the international retirement of influential midfielder Sergio Busquets.

Italy’s new star turn may be the naturalized Mateo Retegui who plays for Argentine side Tigre on loan from Boca Juniors.

He scored in his first two competitive games for Italy against England and Malta.

Previously, Italy won Euro 2020 but then failed to qualify for the Qatar World Cup last year.

Meanwhile, Spain lost on penalties against Morocco in the World Cup’s last 16.

Spain won its Nations League qualifying group ahead of Portugal, Switzerland and the Czech Republic, with three wins, two draws and one defeat.

Italy secured the same record when winning its group ahead of Hungary, Germany and England.

Spain vs Italy Statistics

3 Wins 3
2 Draws 2
1 Losses 1
8 Goals 8
5 Goals Against 7
7 Yellow Cards 13
0 Red Cards 0
3 Clean Sheets 3

*Statistics from UNL 2022-23.

Alvaro Morata to Score Odds

Atletico Madrid striker Alvaro Morata scored the winner in the 1-0 group stage defeat of Portugal which secured Spain’s place in this semifinal.

He has hit 30 goals in 62 international appearances – hitting three goals at the Qatar World Cup.

He is rated as the +200 favorite to score in the tie against Italy – or +450 to score first or last in the Spain vs Italy odds.

Meanwhile, his teammate Joselu of Espanyol is priced at +230, although he may not start.

The 33-year-old was a late debutant but scored twice in two minutes in the 3-0 defeat of Norway in March.

The most favored Italian player to find the net is newcomer Mateo Retegui who is priced at +280 – or +600 to score first or last.

Spain vs Italy History

Although Spain defeated Italy in the 2021 Nations League semifinals, Italy had previously defeated Spain by the same score in the semifinal of Euro 2020.

They have an evenly split record of two wins each and two draws in their last six meetings.

Spain vs Italy Line-Ups & Injuries

Spain projected line-up: Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Alba; Rodri, Zubimendi, Merino; Asensio, Morata, Gavi

Spain injuries: Pedri, Ferran Torres

Italy projected line-up: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Acerbi, Bastoni, Spinazzola; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Chiesa, Retegui, Pellegrini

Italy injuries: Berardi, Pessina

Spain vs Italy Prediction

This is likely to be a tight game between two major teams that are both attempting to get back to their best.

Therefore, the spread offer for Italy to win by one goal looks promising in the Spain vs Italy picks. 

Pick: Italy -0.5 (+205)

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