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Stage 21 Giro d’Italia Odds and Picks – Oct. 23rd

Dave F.

by Dave F. in News

Oct 24, 2020 · 5:07 PM PDT

Tao Geoghegan leads Jai Hindley by less than a second as the Giro d'Italia enters the final day of racing. Photo by @cyclecollective (Twitter).
  • The Giro d’Italia concludes with an individual time trial on Stage 21 (Sunday, October 25th)
  • Tao Geoghegan Hart leads the race by fractions of a second over Jai Hindley
  • Sunday’s time trial is likely to be a race between specialists Filippo Ganna and Rohan Dennis – read below for a preview of riders to watch 

The 2020 Giro d’Italia will conclude Sunday (Oct. 25th) with an individual time trial on Stage 21. While Filippo Ganna’s pursuit of a fourth stage victory, and third ITT win in this year’s event is significant, the overall winner is still very much up in the air.

On Saturday the top two climbers in this year’s Giro, Tao Geoghegan Hart and Jai Hindley cracked race favorite Wilco Kelderman during the final mountain stage. Barring a total collapse by both Hart and Hindley, whichever is quicker over 15.7km flat on Stage 21 will stand at the top of the podium.

Let’s look at the odds to win the race, and then consider the individual stage options.

2020 Giro d’Italia Odds

Rider Odds
Tao Geoghegan Hart -670
Jai Hindley +400
Wilco Kelderman +5000
Pello Bilbao +40000
João Almeida +50000

Odds as of Oct. 24th at DraftKings

Saturday’s muted mountain stage was supposed to play into the hands of Kelderman. When France did not allow the Giro to cross over the border, what was going to be a showdown for climbers seemed more manageable for Kelderman to hold his 12-second advantage. Instead, he got dropped, Hart edged Hindley for stage honors, and when all bonuses were accounted for, Hindley became the overall leader.

Hindley enters the time trial fractions of a second ahead of Hart, with Kelderman 92 seconds behind in third place. Pello Bilbao is 2:51 behind the leader in fourth, and Joao Almeida is in fifth 3:14 off the pace.

Which Climber Can Sprint?

Hart and Hindley are overwhelming favorites but now they must excel in a sprint, not normally their domain.

During the Stage 1 time trial Hart finished 2:04 behind Ganna, while Hindley was 1:15 back.

The ITT on Stage 14 was also won by Ganna. Hart was 2:24 off the pace. Hindley finished 3:39 behind the winner.

The first time trial this year started downhill and then was mainly flat. The second one had a pair of very minor hills. Sunday’s course is short and flat.

If you want a longshot, Kelderman finished ahead of the climbers on the second time trial, and was right in the mix on Stage 1. He was 1:47 behind Ganna on Stage 14, after giving away 88 seconds to the winner on the opening stage.

Giro d’Italia Stage 21 Odds

Rider Odds
Filippo Ganna -400
Rohan Dennis +350
Josef Cerny +900
Victor Campenaerts +1000
Mikkel Bjerg +1800

With three individual time trials on this year’s course, the Giro d’Italia attracted some specialists. Ganna was 22 seconds better than João Almeida and Mikkel Bjerg on Stage 1. Ganna beat Rohan Dennis by 26 seconds, with Brandon McNulty 1:09 back on Stage 14.

Can Ganna be Stopped?

Ganna winning the two time trials was fairly predictable, but when he added Stage 5 to his trophy case, an intermediate stage, that was impressive.

Now he is back to what he does best. However, since the last time trial there have been four very stressful days in the mountains. How are his legs?

Though Rohan Dennis has not won a stage this year, he has looked strong. A winner of an individual stage on each grand tour, Dennis has tallied the fourth most mountain points, and is currently seventh in the combativity classification.

Dennis has twice won the World Time Trial Championship.

If you are looking for a price, Victor Campenaerts has twice won the European Time Trial Title while Josef Cerny won the flat modified Stage 19 this year and is the reigning Czech National champ.

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