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Ashleigh Barty vs Madison Keys Odds & Prediction – Australian Open Semifinals

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Jan 26, 2022 · 8:23 AM PST

Madison Keys stretching for a forehand during a match at the Australian Open.
Madison Keys of the U.S. plays a forehand return to Barbora Krejcikova of the Czech Republic during their quarterfinal match at the Australian Open tennis championships in Melbourne, Australia, Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2022. (AP Photo/Simon Baker)
  • The Australian Open women’s singles semifinals will be played Thursday, January 27th
  • Ashleigh Barty and Madison Keys will go head-to-head for a fourth time
  • Continue below for odds, preview, and a breakdown of the best betting value

The final four are all set and ready to go in Melbourne, and the women’s singles semifinal matches of the 2022 Australian Open begin Thursday, January 27th.

First seed, Ashleigh Barty will take on unseeded Madison Keys in the first of two matches being played. The two are scheduled to take to the court at 3:30am ET. Barty has been unstoppable this tournament, the hometown favorite had the best Australian Open odds heading into the Grand Slam, and has just seen them continue to shorten with each match.

Keys on the other hand, was not apart of any conversations revolving around the later rounds of the tournament. Her opening odds were listed at +3500, and was not even close to the top of expected players to come out of her quarter.

Ashleigh Barty vs Madison Keys Australian Open Semifinals Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Ashleigh Barty -4.5 (-125) -500 Ov 20.5 (-110)
Madison Keys +4.5 (-105) +350 Un 20.5 (-120)

Odds as of January 26th at Caesar Sportsbooks.

Barty is the heavy favorite heading into this match with -500 odds. But continue below for a breakdown of each players’ journey to the semis, and a best bet prediction.


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Perfect Through Five in Melbourne

The 25-year old Australian entered the Grand Slam after winning the Adelaide International. She’s now riding a nine game winning streak, going undefeated on the year so far.

Barty has cruised through her five opponents so far, having yet to drop a set, and only losing a total of 17 games.

To book a spot in the semifinals she defeated American Jessica Pegula 6-2,6-0. In her dominating performance, the World No. 1 committed 22 unforced errors, 12 in the first four games alone, which is not a number to expect based on the final score of the match. This is a high number for Barty, but shows her ability come above it all during a match, and still look like she didn’t break a sweat.

The 25-year old’s quest to become the first Australian singles champion at the Grand Slam since 1978 is still alive, as she gets set to take on Madison Keys in the semifinals. Can Keys end Barty’s perfect start to the year?

Back-to-Back Upsets

In 2021, Keys won all of 11 matches. Not even through the first month of the year, and the American has just collected her 11th win.

Keys has had an impressive couple weeks down under. Much like her semifinal opponent, Keys also entered the first first Grand Slam of the year with a title under her belt, and an undefeated record. On route to winning the Adelaide International 2, the American upsets Elina Svitolina, Ludmilla Samsonova, and Coco Gauff.

Now in the Aussie Open, she has also upset three seeded players on route to the semis. She stunned former champion Sofia Kenin in the first round, dominated Paula Badosa in the fourth round, and most recently left fourth seed Barbora Krejcikova speechless in the quarterfinals.

In fives matches here in Melbourne, Keys has recorded a total of 25 aces, with 11 coming in her quarterfinal match against Krejcikova. The American outplayed the Czech, hitting 27 winners in a 6-3, 6-2 win.

With her win, Keys returns to the Australian Open semifinals for the first time since 2015.

Barty vs Keys Head-to-Head

Barty and Keys have faced each other a total of three times, but haven’t play one another since the quarterfinals of the 2019 French Open. The Australian holds a 2-1 head-to-head edge, having won the last two meetings.

Barty vs Keys Head-to-Head Stats

Ashleigh Barty
Madison Keys
1 WTA Standing 51
25 Age 26
14 Career Titles 6
298/102 Career W/L 303/173
1 YTD Titles 1
4/0 YTD W/L 6/1
2 Head-to-Head Wins 1

Barty vs Keys Best Bet

This match has everything that makes a later round match exciting. Both Barty and Keys are playing at the top of their game, and no one has been able to beat them yet.

As we’ve been able to see, Keys’ serve has been a huge asset to her game these past couple of weeks. She’s a very aggressive player with a lot of power. The American’s serve is something that gives her an edge against Barty.

Barty can be an aggressive player, with a lot of power, but her strength is in her variety. The Aussie uses the entire court during her matches, and is able to throw off her opponents’ rhythm often.

Keys is going to put up a fight, and it should be close, but this is Barty’s match to lose. Looks for the Australian to secure the win in two, very tight sets.

Best Bet: Barty 2-0 (-190)

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