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Ashleigh Barty vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds & Prediction – WTA Madrid Open Finals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

May 7, 2021 · 7:09 AM PDT

Ashleigh Barty vs Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka of Belarusia plays a backhand return to Ashleigh Barty of Australia, during their WTA Tour Women Final match in Stuttgart, Germany, Sunday April 25, 2021. (Marijan Murat/Pool via AP)
  • Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka will meet for the third time in five weeks in the Madrid Open final
  • World No. 1 Barty won the first two: in the Stuttgart final two weeks ago and in Miami in early April
  • After a day off, the match will take place Saturday, May 8 at approximately 12:30 pm EDT

For the third time in a month, and the second time in two weeks in a big final, Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka will meet.

Ashleigh Barty vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
[1] Ashleigh Barty (AUS) -1.5 (-103) -127 O 22.5 (-105)
[5] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) +1.5 (-124) +102 U 22.5 (-121)

Odds as of May 6

Barty, who was among the pre-tournament favorites, now boasts a 16-match win streak on the red clay.

She won a grueling quarterfinal against Sabalenka at the Miami Open.

And then she came back from losing the first set against in the Stuttgart 500-level final two weekends ago, as Sabalenka collapsed a little bit in a 3-6, 6-0, 6-3 defeat.

After the loss, Sabalenka fired her racquet in frustration towards the net, before she headed for the racquet tap.

The Belarussian knew she had been her own worst enemy.

Much More Time on Court for Barty

While Sabalenka has cruised through her first five matches, Barty was pushed to three sets on two occasions.

She also had a challenging (if straight-sets) victory over her successor at the French Open, 2020 champion Iga Swiatek.

Ashleigh Barty & Aryna Sabalenka Madrid Stats

Ashleigh Barty
Aryna Sabalenka

12 Total Sets Played 10
1h33 / 7h42 Average Match Time /Total Time 1h04 / 5h18
58% First-Serve Percentage 55.6%
35 / 11 Aces / Double Faults 18 / 16
57% 2nd Serve Points Won 59.8%
16/39 (41%) Break Points Converted 21/33 (63.6%)
24/30 (80%) Break Points Saved 10/13 (77%)

Barty Ends Badosa’s Home-Country Run

The 25-year-old Aussie, who was beaten by Paula Badosa last month in Charleston, avenged that defeat with a fairly comprehensive 6-4, 6-3 victory Thursday.

At one hour, 15 minutes, it was her shortest match by far since her first-round dismissal of Shelby Rogers, which took exactly an hour.

Sabalenka has been far more economical. Her longest match was an hour and 19 minutes against Daria Kasatkina in the second round. She lost six games – the most in her five victories so far.

She’s clearly enjoying the fact that unlike most events this year, there are plenty of cheering fans at her matches.

“For her it’s serving and first shot, being able to control the point. That gives her freedom on return games to be more aggressive and to really knuckle down. The balance for her must be really good this week,” Barty said of facing Sabalenka again. “The challenge is to get yourself into a position where she’s not controlling the court. It’s a massive challenge.”

Ashleigh Barty vs Aryna Sabalenka Head-to-Head

Ashleigh Barty
Aryna Sabalenka

25 (April 24, 1996) Age 23 (May 5, 1998
Ipswich, Australia Birthplace Minsk, Belarus
5-5 Height 5-11
11 Career WTA Singles Titles 9
No. 1 (June 24, 2019) Career High Ranking No. 7 (Jan. 25, 2021)
No. 1 Current Ranking  No. 7
$18,424,213 Career Prize Money $7,474,204
24-3 2021 Won/Loss record 23-6
4 Career Head-to-Head 3

Break-Point Conversion will be Key for Sabalenka

Through her first five matches in Madrid, Sabalenka has converted 63.6-percent of her break point opportunities.

In her two recent matches against Barty, she has failed to maximize those chances. In Stuttgart, she broke just twice in ten chances. In Miami, she went 0-for-7.

Sabalenka also won less than 50-percent of her second-serve points against Barty in both matches.

So the key to her success on Saturday won’t be her serve game; it will be her return game.

Ashleigh Barty vs Aryna Sabalenka Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 Stuttgart (F) Indoor Clay 3-6, 6-0, 6-3 Barty
2021 Miami (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-3 Barty
2019 Wuhan (SF) Outdoor Hard 7-5, 6-4 Sabalenka
2019 Fed Cup (Brisbane) Outdoor Hard 6-2, 6-2 Barty
2018 Zhuhai (RR) Indoor Hard 6-4, 6-4 Sabalenka
2018 Wuhan (SF) Outdoor Hard 7-6 (2), 6-4 Sabalenka
2018 Australian Open (1R) Outdoor Hard 6-7 (2), 6-4, 6-4 Barty

Match History Indicates Close, Tough Clash

The only “routine” victory in their seven-match rivalry came when Barty was literally playing on her home courts in Brisbane, just a half-hour from her hometown of Ipswich.

The proud Aussie also was representing her country, as it was a Fed Cup tie against Belarus.

Otherwise, it has been close and tight. There’s no reason to think it will be much different on Saturday.

The total games odds flip into the positive at 23.5. That seems likely; they went 24 in Stuttgart, and 32 in Miami.

Barty’s less-volatile temperament will likely tip the balance in this one. She can withstand the patches of untouchable power from Sabalenka and await her chances.

Best Bet: Barty (-127) in three sets (+330)

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