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2021 WTA Mutua Madrid Open Odds & Preview – Swiatek, Halep Co-Favorites

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Apr 28, 2021 · 7:49 AM PDT

Madrid Open
Poland's Iga Swiatek celebrates winning the final match of the French Open tennis tournament against Sofia Kenin of the U.S. in two sets, 6-4, 6-1, at the Roland Garros stadium in Paris, France, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)
  • Reigning French Open champ Iga Swiatek is the favorite to win the Madrid Open, in her debut appearance
  • The tournament is a full 64 draw with no byes – every player will have to win six matches to take the title
  • Previous Madrid champs Kvitova and Halep figure to be better bets. We break down the odds below.

The Mutua Madrid Open is on a bit of a different schedule this year, as the main draw begins Thursday.

It stretches out over a few extra days, while the ATP Tour portion of the tournament only begins Sunday.

Whether the occasional rest day during the tournament will be a help to those who went deep in Stuttgart and Istanbul remains to be seen.

WTA Madrid Open Odds

Seed Player Odds at Bet365
[14] Iga Swiatek +550
[3] Simona Halep +550
[1] Ashleigh Barty +750
[10] Garbiñe Muguruza +800
[2] Naomi Osaka +900
[5] Aryna Sabalenka +1200
[9] Petra Kvitova +1200
[4] Elina Svitolina +2200
[6] Karolina Pliskova +3300
[13] Elise Mertens +3300
Anett Kontaveit +3300
[12] Victoria Azarenka +3300
Veronika Kudermetova +4000
Marketa Vondrousova +4000
Coco Gauff +4000
Ons Jabeur +5000
[WC] Venus Williams +50000

Odds as of  April 27

Andreescu Out After Positive COVID-19 Test

Bianca Andreescu has played little on clay at the top WTA level so far.

But she has the game to be successful, and would likely have been among the favorites to win in Madrid. Except …

The 20-year-old spent two weeks in Florida out of the tournament bubble after the Miami Open. She tested negative before leaving for Madrid – but positive on arrival.

Stacked Draw Even Without Serena, Kenin, Andreescu

Here’s the singles draw.

That’s three top-10 players missing. And yet, the draw looks absolutely riveting from the first round.

Qualifying concludes Wednesday, and the main-draw matches begin on Thursday.

Outright Favorite Swiatek Has Never Played Madrid

Folks seem to have a fair bit of faith in 19-year-old Iga Swiatek, who is making her inaugural appearance in Madrid.

Why? Well, obviously that impressive run to the French Open title last October has a lot to do with it.

But Swiatek has been very discreet in 2021. After making the round of 16 at the Australian Open and winning the tournament in Adelaide that followed, she has played just four matches – two in Dubai, and two in Miami more than a month ago. She didn’t play Charleston, and she didn’t play Stuttgart last week, either.

And the conditions in Madrid are completely different to those she mastered in Paris last fall.

It’s hard to fathom Swiatek will be in match shape, playing a tournament she’s never seen, and at altitude. She doesn’t appear to be a good bet to win it.

Madrid Open Contenders – Best Previous Results

Player Trips to Madrid Best Result
Iga Swiatek Debut N/A
Simona Halep 10 Champion ’16 & ’17
Ashleigh Barty 2 QF ’19
Garbiñe Muguruza 8 R16 ’18
Naomi Osaka 3 QF ’19
Aryna Sabalenka 2 1R ’18 & ’19
Petra Kvitova 10 Champion ’11, ’15 & ’18
Elina Svitolina 6 R32 (3X)

Former Champions Halep and Kvitova Looking Good

Simona Halep has won Madrid twice, and made two other finals. She’s always a good pick at any clay-court tournament, and especially in Madrid, where countryman and supporter Ion Tiriac owns the tournament.

Meanwhile, Petra Kvitova has won it three times.

Naomi Osaka hasn’t played it often.

Aryna Sabalenka has played it twice and lost in the first round both times.

And Garbiñe Muguruza, in eight trips, has gotten past the second round only once.

And yet, those three players have as good or better odds to win the whole thing than does Kvitova.

Previous Madrid Open Winners and Finalists

Year Champion Finalist
2020 (Not held) N/A
2019 [7] Kiki Bertens [3] Simona Halep
2018 [10] Petra Kvitova Kiki Bertens
2017 [3] Simona Halep [14] Kristina Mladenovic
2016 [6] Simona Halep Dominika Cibulkova
2015 [4] Petra Kvitova Svetlana Kuznetsova
2014 [8] Maria Sharapova [4] Simona Halep
2013 [1] Serena Williams [2] Maria Sharapova

First-Round Madrid Open Matches to Watch

[10] Garbine Muguruza (-600) vs. Sloane Stephens (+400)

Stephens is slightly disrespected in this matchup of former Grand Slam champions. She’s a former French Open finalist. And when she’s on it, can beat anyone on the surface.

And the American was a Madrid semifinalist in 2019. She appeared to have some of her old spark in making the quarterfinals in Charleston. She’s beaten Muguruza on clay, too.

Muguruza had a leg injury in Charleston and while she said Tuesday that it was “a little better”, it didn’t sound particularly reassuring.

[1] Ashleigh Barty (-385) vs. Shelby Rogers (+290)

This will be the fourth time these two have met in 2021. And Rogers took Barty to three very tight sets in Charleston on the American clay a few weeks ago.

Barty had a big week in Stuttgart winning both singles and doubles. She might not be on top of it, understandably.

Best Bet: Simona Halep (+550)
Longer shot:  Petra Kvitova (+1200)

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