2021 WTA Mutua Madrid Open Odds & Preview – Swiatek, Halep Co-Favorites
- Reigning French Open champ Iga Swiatek is the favorite to win the Madrid Open, in her debut appearance
- The tournament is a full 64 draw with no byes – every player will have to win six matches to take the title
- Previous Madrid champs Kvitova and Halep figure to be better bets. We break down the odds below.
The Mutua Madrid Open is on a bit of a different schedule this year, as the main draw begins Thursday.
It stretches out over a few extra days, while the ATP Tour portion of the tournament only begins Sunday.
Whether the occasional rest day during the tournament will be a help to those who went deep in Stuttgart and Istanbul remains to be seen.
WTA Madrid Open Odds
| Seed | Player | Odds at Bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| [14] | Iga Swiatek | +550 |
| [3] | Simona Halep | +550 |
| [1] | Ashleigh Barty | +750 |
| [10] | Garbiñe Muguruza | +800 |
| [2] | Naomi Osaka | +900 |
| [5] | Aryna Sabalenka | +1200 |
| [9] | Petra Kvitova | +1200 |
| [4] | Elina Svitolina | +2200 |
| [6] | Karolina Pliskova | +3300 |
| [13] | Elise Mertens | +3300 |
| – | Anett Kontaveit | +3300 |
| [12] | Victoria Azarenka | +3300 |
| – | Veronika Kudermetova | +4000 |
| – | Marketa Vondrousova | +4000 |
| – | Coco Gauff | +4000 |
| – | Ons Jabeur | +5000 |
| [WC] | Venus Williams | +50000 |
Odds as of April 27
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Andreescu Out After Positive COVID-19 Test
Bianca Andreescu has played little on clay at the top WTA level so far.
But she has the game to be successful, and would likely have been among the favorites to win in Madrid. Except …
— Bianca (@Bandreescu_) April 25, 2021
The 20-year-old spent two weeks in Florida out of the tournament bubble after the Miami Open. She tested negative before leaving for Madrid – but positive on arrival.
Stacked Draw Even Without Serena, Kenin, Andreescu
That’s three top-10 players missing. And yet, the draw looks absolutely riveting from the first round.
Qualifying concludes Wednesday, and the main-draw matches begin on Thursday.
Outright Favorite Swiatek Has Never Played Madrid
Folks seem to have a fair bit of faith in 19-year-old Iga Swiatek, who is making her inaugural appearance in Madrid.
Why? Well, obviously that impressive run to the French Open title last October has a lot to do with it.
Train, football, puzzle – repeat!🏃♀️⚽️🧩
Day in the office with @iga_swiatek #BJKCup pic.twitter.com/snIHGSvKaG
— Billie Jean King Cup (@BJKCup) April 25, 2021
But Swiatek has been very discreet in 2021. After making the round of 16 at the Australian Open and winning the tournament in Adelaide that followed, she has played just four matches – two in Dubai, and two in Miami more than a month ago. She didn’t play Charleston, and she didn’t play Stuttgart last week, either.
And the conditions in Madrid are completely different to those she mastered in Paris last fall.
It’s hard to fathom Swiatek will be in match shape, playing a tournament she’s never seen, and at altitude. She doesn’t appear to be a good bet to win it.
Madrid Open Contenders – Best Previous Results
| Player | Trips to Madrid | Best Result |
|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | Debut | N/A |
| Simona Halep | 10 | Champion ’16 & ’17 |
| Ashleigh Barty | 2 | QF ’19 |
| Garbiñe Muguruza | 8 | R16 ’18 |
| Naomi Osaka | 3 | QF ’19 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 2 | 1R ’18 & ’19 |
| Petra Kvitova | 10 | Champion ’11, ’15 & ’18 |
| Elina Svitolina | 6 | R32 (3X) |
Former Champions Halep and Kvitova Looking Good
Simona Halep has won Madrid twice, and made two other finals. She’s always a good pick at any clay-court tournament, and especially in Madrid, where countryman and supporter Ion Tiriac owns the tournament.
Meanwhile, Petra Kvitova has won it three times.
Naomi Osaka hasn’t played it often.
Aryna Sabalenka has played it twice and lost in the first round both times.
And Garbiñe Muguruza, in eight trips, has gotten past the second round only once.
And yet, those three players have as good or better odds to win the whole thing than does Kvitova.
Previous Madrid Open Winners and Finalists
| Year | Champion | Finalist |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | (Not held) | N/A |
| 2019 | [7] Kiki Bertens | [3] Simona Halep |
| 2018 | [10] Petra Kvitova | Kiki Bertens |
| 2017 | [3] Simona Halep | [14] Kristina Mladenovic |
| 2016 | [6] Simona Halep | Dominika Cibulkova |
| 2015 | [4] Petra Kvitova | Svetlana Kuznetsova |
| 2014 | [8] Maria Sharapova | [4] Simona Halep |
| 2013 | [1] Serena Williams | [2] Maria Sharapova |
First-Round Madrid Open Matches to Watch
[10] Garbine Muguruza (-600) vs. Sloane Stephens (+400)
Stephens is slightly disrespected in this matchup of former Grand Slam champions. She’s a former French Open finalist. And when she’s on it, can beat anyone on the surface.
And the American was a Madrid semifinalist in 2019. She appeared to have some of her old spark in making the quarterfinals in Charleston. She’s beaten Muguruza on clay, too.
Muguruza had a leg injury in Charleston and while she said Tuesday that it was “a little better”, it didn’t sound particularly reassuring.
[1] Ashleigh Barty (-385) vs. Shelby Rogers (+290)
This will be the fourth time these two have met in 2021. And Rogers took Barty to three very tight sets in Charleston on the American clay a few weeks ago.
Barty had a big week in Stuttgart winning both singles and doubles. She might not be on top of it, understandably.
Best Bet: Simona Halep (+550)
Longer shot: Petra Kvitova (+1200)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
