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ATP Finals Group Stage Odds & Picks: Thiem vs Berrettini & Djokovic vs Federer

Hans Themistode

by Hans Themistode in Tennis

Updated Mar 27, 2020 · 3:04 PM PDT

Dominic Thiem
Dominic Thiem faces Matteo Berrettini after an impressive win over Novak Djokovic earlier this week. By Carine06 (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Dominic Thiem will look to grab yet another victory in the ATP Finals when he takes on Matteo Berrettini
  • Berrettini has gone winless thus far but he has one more chance to change that
  • As for the second match of the day, two absolute legends in Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer look to have a spot in the next round

The Group Stage of the ATP Finals is coming to a close. On tap are two matches that although are interesting, they have different implications for the rest of this tournament.

Matteo Berrettini will be taking on his section leader in Dominic Thiem while the two legends in Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic will battle it out for a spot in the semifinals.

For Dominic Thiem he has already done his heavy lifting earlier in the week as he defeated both Federer and Djokovic in the first two rounds. Berrettini won’t present him with the same level of danger but he is still a great player nonetheless.

The oddsmakers believe Thiem should walk away from this contest on the winning side.

Dominic Thiem vs Matteo Berrettini Odds

Players Odds
Dominic Thiem -248
Matteo Berrettini +208

Odds taken Nov. 13

It’s been a year to remember for the world number 8 Matteo Berrettini. His 47 wins on the year are a career-high. His three titles on tour are also the best he has been able to produce throughout a single year. All of his success has resulted in his ranking shooting up to number 8.

However, even with his phenomenal year, he has had a rough time in the ATP Finals. You can’t really blame him. Berrettini has been given a brutal hand to start as he took on both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic (more on them later) in the opening rounds.

He should have a bit of an easier time against Dominic Thiem but still, he will have a difficult time picking up a win.

Finding the Motivation

With two wins already in his possession, Thiem is already through to the semifinals no matter the results of this contest.

Although he isn’t playing for a spot in the next round, he is playing for money. If Thiem can keep up his undefeated play he could earn himself some extra cash.

Even with the motivation of money on the line, one has to wonder whether or not Thiem will be fully invested, knowing that his spot in the semifinal is already booked.

Thiem vs Berrettini Pick

Berrettini will enter his third straight contest as the betting underdog. Unlike his previous contest, he has had a bit of success against Thiem as he has beaten him earlier this year at the Shanghai Masters.

Thiem did exact his revenge at the Vienna Open soon after.

Berrettini doesn’t want to leave the ATP Finals without a win, but unfortunately for him, that is exactly what will happen. Thiem is on a roll and wants to carry that momentum into the semifinals. Expect Thiem to send Berrettini home winless to set up a contest with one of his previously defeated opponents.

Who exactly will that be? Keep reading to find out.

Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic Odds

Total Odds
Roger Federer -255
Novak Djokovic +215

The tennis world is in for a treat as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer meet up for a chance to go on to the semifinals.

Federer Looking for Revenge

Whenever you’ve got Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic opposing each other, it doesn’t get much better than that.


Federer, even at the age of 38 is as good as ever. He currently ranks number 3 in the world and has been spectacular on every surface. Even with the success, he has enjoyed this year and the four titles he has won, there is one particular contest that was a gut-wrenching loss.

During the 2019 Wimbledon finals, Federer and Djokovic went nip and tuck all match long. Federer managed to finally break through his opponents’ serve and held the match on his racket. Federer was just one point away from winning another Wimbledon title. Unfortunately for him and his fans, he crumbled under the pressure and watched his 21st grand slam title slip through his fingers.

This will be their first contest against one another since then and although a victory won’t take away the pain, he would love to pull off the victory and send Djokovic home.

Djokovic Looking to Bounce Back

After a year which involved two grand slam wins and five overall titles, it was surprising to see Djokovic lose to Dominic Thiem in his previous contest.

Standing between him and a rematch against Thiem will be Roger Federer. These two have always produced classic matchups and another one seems to be on tap once again.

Federer vs Djokovic Pick

Both men won’t be short on motivation for this contest. The winner will move on to face Dominic Thiem in the semifinal while the loser will have to watch from the sidelines.

With the heartbreaking loss to Djokovic still on the mind of Federer, it seems only right that he gets his revenge doesn’t it?

Although it will be tempting, don’t do it. Federer might have 22 head to head wins against Djokovic in 48 contests, but he hasn’t beaten his rival since 2015. Ironically enough, that also came at the ATP Finals. Still, don’t expect a repeat.

Federer is amazing and is arguably the greatest player of all time.

However, Djokovic has his number and will pick up the win in this one.

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