- Only 10 of the original 16 seeds in the bottom half of the Australian Open men’s draw remain alive
- They play Saturday in Australia (beginning at 7 pm ET Friday) for spots in the round of 16
- Read on as we analyze the odds, with No. 2 Daniil Medvedev being a huge favorite to get through
Most of the contenders to make the final from the bottom half of the Australian Open men’s singles draw are still alive.
And most of them have good paths to the second week – especially Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur.
Australian Open Round of 32 Odds – January 21
|Benoit Paire (FRA) vs.  Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE)||+650/-1200|
|Botic Van de Zandschulp (NED) vs.  Daniil Medvedev (RUS)||+1100/-3300|
| Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) vs.  Taylor Fritz (USA)||-118/-105|
|Pablo Andujar (ESP) vs  Alex de Minaur (AUS)||+800/-1600|
|[WC] Christopher O’Connell (AUS) vs. Maxime Cressy (USA)||+138/-175|
|[Q] Taro Daniel (JPN) vs.  Jannik Sinner (ITA)||+700/-1400|
| Daniel Evans (GBR) vs.  Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN)||-110/-110|
| Andrey Rublev (RUS) vs.  Marin Cilic (CRO)||-333/+250|
Odds as of Jan. 21 at William Hill
It’s more of a challenge to find value for those three, although nothing the mercurial Benoit Paire might do on court against No. 4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas would surprise in one of the biggest tennis betting events of the year.
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Paire vs Tsitsipas Prediction
Paire is like the French version of Nick Kyrgios – his emotions, his effort level (or lack of same) right out there for the public.
He doesn’t come off as nearly as much of a villain, though. Perhaps it’s his very Frenchness that makes people expect him to be a little outside the box. He had to quarantine for COVID-19 at the 2020 US Open. And then he got it again at the start of this year and had to isolate again. He lost his two matches in two prep tournaments (one when he retired down 2-5 in the third set).
"It was a horrible year last year…"
— Eurosport UK (@Eurosport_UK) January 21, 2022
But a crew of French (or French-friendly) Paire supporters who are here every year have lifted his spirits and helped him to a second-round upset over No. 26 Grigor Dimitrov.
Having never made the round of 32 in 12 previous appearances, he’s there this year. And he’s playing an opponent in Tsitsipas who is not dissimilar stylistically to Dimitrov.
He’s not likely to win. But he could makes things a little dramatic for Tsitsipas.
Best Bet: Tsitsipas in four Sets (+260)
Rublev vs Cilic Prediction
Cilic, now 33, brought a 32-13 career won-loss record into this year’s Australian Open. He reached the semifinals back in 2010. And he reached the finals just four years ago, in 2018.
He knows how to win in Melbourne.
Rublev is a defending quarterfinalist who took advantage of an injury retirement from Casper Ruud in the round of 16, before losing in straight sets to Daniil Medvedev in the next round a year ago.
He has gone under the radar, rolling through his draw once it was clear that, as the No. 5 seed, it was too late for him to replace No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic at the top of the draw, by the time the nine-time champion withdrew.
Straight-set wins followed against Gianluca Mager (seven games lost) and Ricardas Berankis (six games lost) have put him in good position.
— Marin Cilic (@cilic_marin) January 20, 2022
And he’s 4-1 against Cilic, winning at some big tournaments although never at a major. Even the one loss came back in 2015, when he was just 17 (and he almost won that one). Clearly it’s not a good matchup for Cilic, although he’s playing well enough to make a contest out of it – especially as there are a lot of Croatian fans in Melbourne. And they have his back.
Best Bet: Rublev in four sets (+280)
Daniel vs Sinner Prediction
This has been the biggest run in the career of Taro Daniel, who has been achingly close to getting back into the top 100 for the first time since 2018 for most of the last year, only to fall just short.
If he defeats Sinner Saturday – a huge ask – he would get back there a week before his 29th birthday.
✅ 5 victories
💪 0 set lost
That's still a clean sheet in 2022 for Jannik Sinner, who beat easily Steve Johnson in Melbourne R2 pic.twitter.com/TKHOLTHXCd
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) January 20, 2022
The two are meeting for the first time. But Daniel has already won five matches, in qualifying and the main draw, to get there. And the Australian Open odds for the match are a pretty good indication of what the likely outcome is. Sinner is undefeated in 2022.
The biggest question: will Daniel get a set? We say no. And given the outright odds for Sinner to win it, that seems like the best value from this matchup.
Best Bet: Sinner in Three Sets (-195)