- Ons Jabeur and Caroline Garcia will battle for a spot in the US Open finals on September 8 at 7:00 pm ET
- Both are first-time US Open semifinalists; Garcia is a first-time Grand Slam finalist
- Jabeur, who leads the head-to-head 2-0, is the favorite; read on for our analysis
There have been a lot of firsts at this US Open.
Notably, there will be a first-time champion, when the women’s singles event wraps up on Saturday.
And either No. 5 Ons Jabeur or No. 17 Caroline Garcia will be in the final.
Garcia vs Jabeur Odds
| Caroline Garcia (FRA)||-2.5 (-112)||-152||O 21.5 (-114)|
| Ons Jabeur (TUN)||+2.5 (-108)||+128||U 21.5 (-106)|
On the plus side for Garcia, who has played a lot of tennis in the last couple of months, she and partner Kristina Mladenovic were eliminated from the women’s doubles in the quarterfinals Wednesday afternoon.
— David Kane (@DKTNNS) September 7, 2022
That means she will no longer have to worry about having that extra drain on her physical and mental energy. And although they battled, the match itself took just an hour and 17 minutes – no longer than an average off-day practice.
Lower-Ranked Garcia the Favorite
Despite being ranked No. 17 to Jabeur’s No. 5, the surging Garcia is the favorite in this semifinal match.
No wonder, she is on an impressive roll and has won titles on three different surfaces in the last few months.
Her elimination of No. 12 seed Coco Gauff in two tight sets was a testament to both her tennis and her increasingly impressive mental resilience.
Garcia had always been considered to be a player with the full package. But it was the mind (and some physical niggles) that had held her back since she peaked at No. 4 nearly exactly four years ago.
As she turns 29 next month, she seems to be putting the full package together.
Garcia vs Jabeur Head-to-Head
|28 (Oct. 16, 1993)||Age||28 (Aug. 28, 1994)|
|St-Germain-en-Laye, FRA||Birthplace||Ksar El Hellar, Tunisia|
|10||Career WTA Singles Titles||3|
|No. 4 (Sept. 10, 2018)||Career-Best Ranking||No. 2 (June 27, 2022)|
|No. 17||Current Ranking||No. 5|
|$12,692,396||Career Prize Money||$7,659,743|
|40-15||2022 Won/Loss Record||43-13|
The career trajectories of these two players, less than a year apart in age, began similarly but took a while to get back together.
They began in similar places; Jabeur won the junior French Open in 2011 beating – as it happens, Garcia in the semifinals.
Garcia made the semifinals in the first three Grand Slam tournaments that year, and the final of the US Open – but never picked off a major.
The two met three times in junior Grand Slams in 2010, with Jabeur winning all three, easily, in straight sets, on three different surfaces at the French Open, Wimbledon, and the US Open.
More than a decade later, they’re playing for a spot in the US Open women’s final.
Garcia vs Jabeur Match History
|2020||Australian Open (R64)||Outdoor Hard||1-6, 6-2, 6-3||Jabeur|
|2019||US Open (R128)||Outdoor Hard||7-6 (8), 6-2||Jabeur|
Jabeur has won both of their matches in the pros – both, also, as it happens, at Grand Slams. So throughout their entire history together, Garcia has only taken one set.
And yet, she’s the favorite.
Garcia vs Jabeur Pick
Jabeur’s close, straight-set wins over Veronika Kudermetova and Serena-slayer Ajla Tomljanovic in the last two rounds could have gotten away from her. But they didn’t.
Having already tasted a major final at Wimbledon just two months ago, she may well be ready for another.
But Garcia is playing so well, her game so complete, her movement so elite, it is going to be difficult for her to destabilize the Frenchwomen who seem to have had the answers so far this summer.
As a tennis matchup, it’s sublime. With the stakes so high for both, nerves will be a factor.
It feels counterintuitive to have Garcia as the favorite, she hasn’t come this far to stop and it may well be her best-ever opportunity to win a major.
As long as she forgets about her past history with Jabeur, she should pull it out.
Best Bet: Over 0.5 Tiebreaks (+250)