Félix Auger Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – Australian Open Quarterfinals
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Published:
- World No. 2 Daniil Medvedev is a heavy favorite against No. 9 Félix Auger-Aliassime in their Australian Open quarterfinal
- Medvedev is 3-0 vs Auger-Aliassime, whom he defeated 6-4, 6-0 a few weeks ago at the ATP Cup
- Read on as we analyze whether the Canadian has a chance in this one, and make a prediction
Even when Novak Djokovic was still in the tournament, Daniil Medvedev was always a favorite – or at least a co-favorite – to win the Australian Open.
The truth is that, other than Rafael Nadal, no one else in the draw has stepped up in a Grand Slam moment in recent years.
Félix Auger Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [9] Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) | +6.5 (-130) | +450 | O 34.5 (-120) |
| [2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | -6.5 (+100) | -700 | U 34.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Jan. 25 at Caesars Sportsbook
Auger-Aliassime is being given far less of a puncher’s chance to upset the No. 2 than his friend and compatriot Denis Shapovalov received against Rafael Nadal in their Tuesday quarterfinal.
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And yet, Shapovalov came so close.
Why do the Australian Open odds tell us the 21-year-old isn’t expected to be as competitive?
Well, history hasn’t helped. Medvedev is 3-0 against the Canadian, who came within inches of upsetting him at the Canadian Open in 2018, when Auger-Aliassime was just turning 18.
Auger-Aliassime was absolutely gutted after that one.
But, as he said a few days ago, Medvedev wasn’t Medvedev then. And Auger-Aliassime said he’s no longer the same player, either.
It’s a different era.
Félix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head
| 21 (Aug. 8, 2000) | Age | 25 (Feb. 11, 1996) |
| Montréal, Canada | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-4 | Height | 6-6 |
| 0 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 13 |
| 0 | Career Grand Slam Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 9 (Jan. 10, 2022) | Career High Ranking | No. 2 (March 15, 2021) |
| No. 9 | Current Ranking | No. 2 |
| $5,923,125 | Career Prize Money | $16,345,212 |
| 7-2 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 7-1 |
| 1 | Career Head to Head | 3 |
Two Last Occasions Routine for Medvedev
Just a few weeks ago, when Canada played Russia in the ATP Cup semifinals, Auger-Aliassime didn’t put up his best performance as the two played No. 1 singles against each other.
It’s a question of matchups. It’s extremely difficult to get the ball past Medvedev, who has long limbs and great reach. He’s also so consistent that it’s a tough ask to outlast him in rallies.
Those are the two avenues Auger-Aliassime is using to win points these days.
Medvedev also stands way back on the serve return, the better to give himself a chance at putting a good swing on a big serve. So he effectively shuts down that option as well.
Félix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | ATP Cup (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 6-0 | Medvedev |
| 2021 | US Open (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 7-5, 6-2 | Medvedev |
| 2018 | Masters Canada (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (7) | Medvedev |
A Glimmer of Hope?
Medvedev was in a mood in the fourth round against unseeded French-American Maxime Cressy.
There was the extreme heat. There was Cressy’s relentless serve-volley style, which is rare on tour and which had Medvedev barking at the existential unfairness of it all.
As well, Medvedev had some pretty rough-looking treatment on his hip and lower back.
All in all, he got through in four sets. But it could have easily gone five and the Russian didn’t look especially convincing.
Title favourite Daniil Medvedev is pushed to the limit by Maxime Cressy before reaching the last eight of #AusOpen, as French veteran Alize Cornet makes the quarter-finals of a Slam for the first time in her long career https://t.co/PB5ayuPMrO pic.twitter.com/3FHzrBl1bY
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) January 24, 2022
Medvedev also had his moments dealing with the disrespectful Aussie fans in his tough second-round win over Nick Kyrgios. So there’s been a lot going on – in addition to being the odds-on favorite to win, which is new territory for him.
Meanwhile, Auger-Aliassime withstood a brilliant start by 2014 US Open champion Marin Cilic in the round of 16 and prevailed under similar weather conditions, getting better and better as he went along.
Interesting Props on Offer
Picking the Canadian at +450 is a great payoff, but very risky based on their priors. If you’re going to go in that direction, might as well pick the Canadian in four or five sets (both +1200).
Still, it feels like Auger-Aliassime has a better shot here than at the US Open. He didn’t feel he played badly in New York, even if the scoreboard said straight sets.
Canadian Auger-Aliassime falls to Medvedev in US Open semis
MORE: https://t.co/56qJXoXrbX pic.twitter.com/YjtG1oO3s6
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) September 10, 2021
But this is the third consecutive run to at least the quarterfinals in Grand Slams for Auger-Aliassime. And he’s starting to feel like he belongs.
With that, over 34.5 games (-120) feels like the better play.
And, as slow a starter as the Canadian has too often been, Medvedev to win the first set in six games (-225) has a good shot.
Best Bet: Medvedev wins, and both players take a set (+145)
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GET $300 IN BONUS BETS EVERY DAY FOR 10 DAYS
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GET 100% BET MATCH UP TO $100 FOR 10 DAYS
DRAFTKINGS T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-522-4700, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/PR/WY). Void in NH/OR/ONT/PR. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 4/6/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.
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Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
