Félix Auger Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – Australian Open Quarterfinals

• World No. 2 Daniil Medvedev is a heavy favorite against No. 9 Félix Auger-Aliassime in their Australian Open quarterfinal
• Medvedev is 3-0 vs Auger-Aliassime, whom he defeated 6-4, 6-0 a few weeks ago at the ATP Cup
• Read on as we analyze whether the Canadian has a chance in this one, and make a prediction

Even when Novak Djokovic was still in the tournament, Daniil Medvedev was always a favorite – or at least a co-favorite – to win the Australian Open.

The truth is that, other than Rafael Nadal, no one else in the draw has stepped up in a Grand Slam moment in recent years.

Félix Auger Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Odds

Odds as of Jan. 25 at Caesars Sportsbook

Auger-Aliassime is being given far less of a puncher’s chance to upset the No. 2 than his friend and compatriot Denis Shapovalov received against Rafael Nadal in their Tuesday quarterfinal.

And yet, Shapovalov came so close.

Why do the Australian Open odds tell us the 21-year-old isn’t expected to be as competitive?

Well, history hasn’t helped. Medvedev is 3-0 against the Canadian, who came within inches of upsetting him at the Canadian Open in 2018, when Auger-Aliassime was just turning 18.

Auger-Aliassime was absolutely gutted after that one.

But, as he said a few days ago, Medvedev wasn’t Medvedev then. And Auger-Aliassime said he’s no longer the same player, either.

It’s a different era.

Félix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head

Two Last Occasions Routine for Medvedev

Just a few weeks ago, when Canada played Russia in the ATP Cup semifinals, Auger-Aliassime didn’t put up his best performance as the two played No. 1 singles against each other.

It’s a question of matchups. It’s extremely difficult to get the ball past Medvedev, who has long limbs and great reach. He’s also so consistent that it’s a tough ask to outlast him in rallies.

Those are the two avenues Auger-Aliassime is using to win points these days.

Medvedev also stands way back on the serve return, the better to give himself a chance at putting a good swing on a big serve. So he effectively shuts down that option as well.

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Félix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Match History

A Glimmer of Hope?

Medvedev was in a mood in the fourth round against unseeded French-American Maxime Cressy.

There was the extreme heat. There was Cressy’s relentless serve-volley style, which is rare on tour and which had Medvedev barking at the existential unfairness of it all.

As well, Medvedev had some pretty rough-looking treatment on his hip and lower back.

All in all, he got through in four sets. But it could have easily gone five and the Russian didn’t look especially convincing.

Title favourite Daniil Medvedev is pushed to the limit by Maxime Cressy before reaching the last eight of #AusOpen, as French veteran Alize Cornet makes the quarter-finals of a Slam for the first time in her long career https://t.co/PB5ayuPMrO pic.twitter.com/3FHzrBl1bY

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) January 24, 2022

Medvedev also had his moments dealing with the disrespectful Aussie fans in his tough second-round win over Nick Kyrgios. So there’s been a lot going on – in addition to being the odds-on favorite to win, which is new territory for him.

Meanwhile, Auger-Aliassime withstood a brilliant start by 2014 US Open champion Marin Cilic in the round of 16 and prevailed under similar weather conditions, getting better and better as he went along.

Interesting Props on Offer

Picking the Canadian at +450 is a great payoff, but very risky based on their priors. If you’re going to go in that direction, might as well pick the Canadian in four or five sets (both +1200).

Still, it feels like Auger-Aliassime has a better shot here than at the US Open. He didn’t feel he played badly in New York, even if the scoreboard said straight sets.

Canadian Auger-Aliassime falls to Medvedev in US Open semis

MORE: https://t.co/56qJXoXrbX pic.twitter.com/YjtG1oO3s6

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) September 10, 2021

But this is the third consecutive run to at least the quarterfinals in Grand Slams for Auger-Aliassime. And he’s starting to feel like he belongs.

With that, over 34.5 games (-120) feels like the better play.

And, as slow a starter as the Canadian has too often been, Medvedev to win the first set in six games (-225) has a good shot.

Best Bet: Medvedev wins, and both players take a set (+145)