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Frances Tiafoe vs Rafael Nadal Odds & Prediction – US Open Round of 16

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Sep 4, 2022 · 5:10 PM PDT

Rafael Nadal celebrating with his arms up after a match.
Sept 3, 2022; Flushing, NY, USA; Rafael Nadal of Spain reacts after beating Richard Gasquet of France on day six of the 2022 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Round of 16 will continue on Monday, September 5th
  • Frances Tiafoe vs Rafael Nadal will go head-to-head for the third time
  • Continue below for odds, preview, and best bet prediction below

The US Open continues with the fourth round. Tiafoe and Nadal will go head-to-head on Monday, with the two coming off strong third round wins.

Frances Tiafoe vs Rafael Nadal Odds

Match Spread Moneyline Total
[22] Frances Tiafoe +1.5 (+215) +400 Ov 9.5 (-135)
[2] Rafael Nadal -1.5 (-310) -550 Un 9.5 (-105)

Odds as of September 4th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Round of 16 match.

As expected Nadal is the heavy favorite heading into the match at -550. His US Open odds have continued to shorten as the tournament goes on.


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Tiafoe Upsets Diego Schwartzman

The 24-year old American is having a career-defining tournament in New York. He has yet to drop a set all week.

His first two matches challenged him, but it was his third round match that put him on the map this tournament when he upset Schwartzman in straight sets.

He’ll now look towards Nadal, who he hasn’t able to steal a match off yet. Maybe he’ll have success in front of a home crowd.

Nadal Continues to Impress

The 22-time Grand Slam champion continues to impress at the US Open this week, and sows us all why he’s one of the best.

The 36-year old dropped the first set in his opening match and second round match, but defeated Richard Gasquet in straight sets. It’s unlike Nadal to get out to the slow starts that he did in the first and second rounds, but clearly it’s nothing to worry about.

With his win over Gasquet, he collected his 30th night win at Arthur Ashe, and is now 22-0 in Grand Slam matches this season alone.

Third Meeting

Tiafoe and Nadal will go head-to-head Monday at 1:15pm ET at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Their two previous matches happened in 2019, and Nadal holds the 2-0 head-to-head edge. They have played each other at a Grand Slam before. Their first meeting was at the 2019 Australian Open.

Frances Tiafoe vs Rafael Nadal Head-to-Head Stats

Frances Tiafoe
Rafael Nadal
26 ATP Standing 3
36 Age 24
1 Career Titles 92
123/137 Career W/L 1063/213
0 YTD Titles 4
21/18 YTD W/L 35/4
0 Head-to-Head Wins 2

Frances Tiafoe vs Rafael Nadal Pick

So where is the best bet for this match? Tiafoe is playing some of his best tennis, but does it compare to Nadal’s play? Nadal is coming off his best match of the tournament against Gasquet, but Tiafoe has been playing great all week.

The two managed to keep their unforced errors down, and continued to dominate their opponents. So instead of looking for a winner to win outright, look for the best to be how long the match will last. Nadal will most likely win the match, but don’t be surprised if Tiafoe steals a set on route to that.

Best Bet: Four sets (+225)

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