Holger Rune vs Andrey Rublev Odds & Prediction – Monte Carlo Masters Final
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Published:
- Andrey Rublev is looking for his first Masters 1000 title in the Monte Carlo final Sunday
- Holger Rune is looking for his second Masters 1000 title
- Rune is the favorite; we break down the Rune vs Rublev prediction and matchup
Despite having former champions Novak Djokovic, Stefanos Tsitstipas and others in the draw, the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds ended up the last two standing at this year’s Monte Carlo Masters. We have the Monte Carlo Finals odds and our Rune vs Rublev prediction here.
Holger Rune vs Andrey Rublev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [6] Holger Rune (DEN) | -2.5 (-118) | -178 | O 22.5 (-120) |
| [5] Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +2.5 (-112) | +150 | U 22.5 (-110) |
Holger Rune is the favorite, although not an overwhelming one; he stands at -178 odds to win, while the underdog Andrey Rublev is at +150 in the Monte Carlo Masters odds. The spread is +2.5 for Rublev and -2.5 for Rune and the match total is set at 22.5 games.
Rune vs Rublev odds as of April 15 are at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Third Masters 1000 Final for Rublev
Rublev reached the final in Monte Carlo in 2021, beating some tough clay-court players including Roberto Bautista Agut, Casper Ruud – and Rafael Nadal – before falling to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final.
He also reached the Cincinnati final on hard courts last year. But most of his ranking points have been built upon success at the 500 level; he is looking for his first Masters 1000 title and of all the clay-court events at the top level, this is probably his best chance.
His head-to-head with Monte Carlo semifinal opponent Taylor Fritz was 2-4 coming into Saturday’s semifinal – with the last three meetings, all won by Fritz, at hard-court Masters 1000 tournaments.
But despite a furious start by Fritz, with some impressive defence, Rublev prevailed 5-7, 6-1, 6-3 and then sat down and put his feet up as Rune and Sinner battled each other in the second final. They also battled the elements.
Rublev Best on Quick Clay
The 25-year-old Russian is impressively consistent on all surfaces, even if he has yet to pull off a title above the ATP 500 level.
His winning percentages on clay, hard courts and grass all sit between 64% and 65% for his career.
Rune vs Rublev Head-to-Head
| 19 (April 29, 2003) | Age | 25 (Oct. 20, 1997) |
| Gentofte, Denmark | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-2 |
| 3 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 12 |
| No. 8 (March 6, 2023) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 5 (Sept. 13, 2021) |
| No. 9 | Current Ranking | No. 6 |
| $3, 582,559 | Career Prize Money | $15,959,245 |
| 18-7 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 17-8 |
| 2 | ATP Main Draw Head-to-Head Wins | 2 |
What holds Rublev back most often are the nerves and emotions in the biggest tournaments against the best players. That, and the fact that his game is fairly one-dimensional, with a relative weakness on the backhand. So against the best, he has to redline what he does best, which is blast forehands.
Rune Looking for Second Big Title
As young as he is, Rune already has something Rublev does not: a Masters 1000 title.
It was a slightly abbreviated 48-player draw at the end of a very long season at the Paris Indoors last year. But it was no less legit.
Rune defeated Stan Wawrinka, Hubert Hurkacz, Rublev, Carlos Alcaraz (then No. 1), Félix Auger-Aliassime and then Novak Djokovic, 7-5 in the third set in the championship match.
It was the effort that absolutely announced his presence at the top of the game.
Rublev, six years older, has never had a week like that. Ever.
Young Gun Matchup
Rublev might feel a bit creaky against his opponent in the Monte Carlo final.
He is 1-1 against Rune, who is still just 19. And their round of 16 match at the Australian Open – won by Rublev, 11-9 in the deciding fifth-set supertiebreak – will still be fresh in the minds of both.
Rune vs Rublev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Australian Open (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6 (9) | Rublev |
| 2022 | Paris Masters (R16) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 7-5 | Rune |
Rune’s biggest problem was that he played late into the evening in an impressive comeback win over Jannik Sinner Saturday.
Down 1-6 in the first set, the Dane came back to win 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 much to Sinner’s dismay.
Rune vs Rublev Prediction
This week feels similar to Paris for Rune, except that he’s now in the top 10 and can move up to a career high No. 6 if he wins the title.
He is so fast, and has so many weapons to hurt Rublev with, that it’s hard to see how he won’t prevail.
The weather will be sunny but cool on Sunday, which should help Rune (who can still struggle in long matches and with the humidity).
Rune vs Rublev Picks: Rune to Win the First Set, and the Match (-110)
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Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
