Holger Rune vs Novak Djokovic Odds & Prediction – Rolex Paris Masters Final
- Two generations clash as Novak Djokovic takes on unseeded Holger Rune in the Paris Masters final
- Djokovic has won the event six times, and made one other final; this is Rune’s first trip
- The Serb is a big favorite; scroll down as we analyze the matchup and make a prediction
Novak Djokovic is 16 years older than Rune, his opponent in Sunday’s Paris Masters final (9 a.m. ET).
But you can’t tell by either his tennis, his movement, or his burning will to win.
Rune vs Djokovic Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holger Rune (DEN) | +4.5 (-117) | +335 | O 21.5 (-121) |
| [6] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -4.5 (-107) | -435 | U 21.5 (-103) |
Odds as of Nov. 5 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Paris Masters.
That will be put to the test against Rune, who has had a great week and seems famished for more.
And as unlikely as it was a few weeks ago, Rune would become the first alternate for the ATP Finals in Turin in a week, should he win.
🇩🇰 @holgerrune2003 is on fire and heading to his first Masters 1000 final 👇#RolexParisMasters pic.twitter.com/BEABYcwhU8
— ROLEX PARIS MASTERS (@RolexPMasters) November 5, 2022
At 19, Rune Making Noise
When you beat four top-10 players in the same tournament, as Rune has – No. 10 Hubert Hurkacz, No. 9 Andrey Rublev, No. 8 Félix Auger-Aliassime and an injured No. 1, Carlos Alcaraz (who will miss six weeks with an abdominal tear, as it turns out), you raise the temperature on yourself.
His takedown of Auger-Aliassime in the semifinals Saturday was a combination of his opponent hitting the physical wall after three titles and 16 straight match wins, and the matchup being one that was in Rune’s favor in the first place.
Auger-Aliassime, at this point, will struggle against players with premier backhands – Djokovic, Alexander Zverev come to mind. His own can’t stand up for two or three sets. And so he has to play lights-out tennis using his other tools to win.
He couldn’t do it on Saturday. And in the end it was a routine win by Rune – 6-4, 6-2 in less than 90 minutes.
Rune vs Djokovic Head-to-Head
| 19 (April 29, 2003) | Age | 35 (May 22, 1987) |
| Gentofte, Denmark | Birthplace | Belgrade, Serbia |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-2 |
| 2 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 90 |
| No. 18 (Oct. 31, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 1 (July 4, 2011) |
| No. 18 | Current Ranking | No. 7 |
| $1,934,018 | Career Prize Money | $159,496,978 |
| 38-24 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 37-6 |
| 0 | Head-to-Head Wins | 1 |
Djokovic Edges Past Tsitsipas
There was nothing in their Paris history that indicated Stefanos Tsitsipas would give Djokovic a lot of resistance in their own semifinal Saturday.
But he did.
In the end, it came down to a slight crack in Tsitsipas’s psychological facade, after getting the mini-break and serving at 4-3 in the third-set tiebreak.
Djokovic in deciding set tiebreaks in Bercy:
2009 F – d. Monfils 6-2 5-7 7-6(3)
2018 SF – d. Federer 7-6(6) 5-7 7-6(3)
2021 SF – d. Hurkacz 3-6 6-0 7-6(5)
2022 SF – d. Tsitsipas 6-2 3-6 7-6(4)Bercy GOAT @DjokerNole 🐐 pic.twitter.com/OQU4t7Ax5K
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 5, 2022
It was just a little crack, but it was emblematic of why Tsitsipas remains a great player, but not yet a champion.
For his part, Djokovic showed why he is a champion. He stuck his toe in that little crack and nudged it wide open – winning the last four points of the tiebreak to earn the date with Rune.
Rune vs Djokovic Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | US Open (R128) | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 6-7 (5), 6-2, 6-1 | Djokovic |
A Better Rune Meets Djokovic
When the two met for the only time a year ago in the first round of the US Open, Rune was ranked No. 145 and spent most of his time on the Challenger Tour.
He’d won three matches in qualifying to get there. It was the first time he’d even been ranked high enough to get into Slam qualifying.
And he barely even got through his first round against Lukas Lacko, cramping up by the end of a two-set match. That has been his challenge in stressful moments, in the heat, and in best-of-five sets, too.
Rune took a set. But the rest was routine.
Novak Djokovic begins US Open campaign in bizarre fashion as Holger Rune battles cramp –
'In humid conditions in NY, 18-yo Holger Rune had just* levelled at a set apiece, when his body started to fail him.'
*He was 1-3 down in the 3rd, @brett_grahamhttps://t.co/1TMqtVgUZj— C Kristjánsdóttir ●🐊 (@CristinaNcl) September 1, 2021
He’s a different player now.
Rune vs Djokovic Prediction
Djokovic might feel the effects of his battle with Tsitsipas, although in the end it lasted a reasonable 2h19.
But a bigger challenge is that the kid who was 14 when they first practiced together at their mutual Monte Carlo Training base all of a sudden is grown up and good enough – and confident enough – to challenge him.
Expect Djokovic to prevail. But not without drama. And it’s hardly a slam dunk.
Best Bet: Over Over 23.5 Games (+148)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
