Miami Open Men’s Singles Quarterfinals Odds & Picks: Medvedev vs Hurkacz, Ruud vs Zverev & More
- No. 1 seed Daniil Medvedev and No. 2 Alexander Zverev remain alive in the Miami Open quarterfinals
- But No. 14 seed Carlos Alcaraz, still just 18, remains the more impressive player in the draw
- Read on as we break down the Miami Open quarterfinal matches and make a prediction
Upsets are exciting. But in the next round of the Miami Open, it typically means there are even heavier odds against those upset-makers getting through again.
For example, Jannik Sinner vs Frances Tiafoe would have been closer. But Francisco Cerundolo, who plays Sinner instead, isn’t given much of a chance.
And given Sinner is much healthier than Tiafoe was Tuesday, the Argentine – the only unseeded player remaining – will have tough time backing up that big win.
ATP Miami Open Quarterfinal Odds
| Matchups | Odds |
|---|---|
| [1] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) vs. [8] Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | -400/+300 |
| [9] Jannik Sinner (ITA) vs Francisco Cerundolo (ARG | -600/+420 |
| [6] Casper Ruud (NOR) vs. [2] Alexander Zverev (GER) | +225/-280 |
| [14] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) vs Miomir Kecmanovic (SRB) | -500/+375 |
Odds as of March 30 at Caesars Sportsbook
Those developments make predictions a little easier, but the favorites don’t pay off very well. So you have to look for other worthwhile props.
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Daniil Medvedev vs Hubert Hurkacz Prediction
Medvedev navigated his first-ever meeting with the unorthodox Jenson Brooksby on Tuesday, coming back from 3-5 in the first set and rolling after that.
But now, he faces a two-fold challenge. He needs to beat defending Miami Open champion Hubert Hurkacz, who suddenly is rounding into form.
He also remains the overwhelming favorite to win the title.
And he has to do it knowing a victory will get him back to No. 1 in the rankings on Monday.
The two played three times in 2021. Hurkacz prevailed in five sets on grass, which is not a Medvedev specialty. But all three matches were extremely tight.
Medvedev vs Hurkacz Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ATP Finals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-7 (5), 6-3, 6-4 | Medvedev |
| 2021 | Masters Canada (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 2-6, 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5) | Medvedev |
| 2021 | Wimbledon (R16) | Grass | 2-6, 7-6 (2), 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 | Hurkacz |
Our prediction is that both players to win a set (+170), and that Hurkacz wins the first set (+220).
Pick: Over 22.5 games (+100)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Miomir Kecmanovic Prediction
Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz would perhaps have been more compelling. But the Indian Wells champion finally hit the wall against Miomir Kecmanovic, whose speedy, steady play earned him a big victory late Tuesday night.
He’ll have a day off Wednesday to process and recover, and try to devise a game plan with new coach David Nalbandian to try to knock off the 18-year-old phenom Alcaraz, who is on a roll.
Alcaraz reached the Indian Wells semifinals two weeks ago, beaten only by a determined and more experienced Rafael Nadal.
The Spanish teen has reached the Miami quarterfinals without losing a set against solid competition: Marton Fucsovics, Marin Cilic and then Stefanos Tsitsipas.
At the US Open last fall, Alcaraz needed five sets to get past Tsitsipas. On Wednesday, he defeated him in straight sets and made the 23-year-old look almost jaded at times, with his youthful energy and impressive bursts of power.
The prediction is that it won’t be tough to back that up with a match that has him as a strong favorite. Because there’s nothing tough about being Alcaraz right now.
Pick: Alcaraz in Two Sets (-185)
Casper Ruud vs Alexander Zverev Prediction
As you can see below, the two met regularly in the quarterfinals in 2021.
This is their first meeting of 2022 and it’s … in the quarterfinals again.
Ruud vs Zverev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Paris Masters (QF) | Indoor Hard | 7-5, 6-4 | Zverev |
| 2021 | Masters Cincinnati (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 6-3 | Zverev |
| 2021 | Acapulco (QF) | Outdoor Hard | WALKOVER | Zverev |
Ruud has gotten to the top 10, for the most part, by winning smaller tournaments and being a dependable quarterfinalist at the bigger events.
He’s 4-17 in his career against top-10 players. Although he has improved some in that regard; until the last 52 weeks, he was 1-8.
The Norwegian eked out a third-set tiebreak win over Andrey Rublev at the Tour Finals in Italy last fall; his other three victories over top-10 players have come on his favored clay.
In short, we don’t give him much of a shot at winning this one, even though he hasn’t lost a set coming in.
Zverev dropped the middle set in his opener against Borna Coric. But other than that he, too, has cruised.
Pick: Zverev in Two Sets (-115)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
