ATP Miami Open Odds & Predictions: Daniil Medvedev the Favorite
- Not a single member of the Big 3 will be playing the Miami Open this year
- Defending champion Hubert Hurkacz and finalist Jannik Sinner are well down the list of favorites
- Read on for some early matches to watch, and our predictions
Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer fill up most of the winners’ slots at the Miami Open over the last decade.
But neither is in Florida for 2022. And neither is Rafael Nadal, who now is resting and preparing for the clay-court season.
So that leaves the title up for grabs. And 2021 surprise champion Hubert Hurkacz and finalist Jannik Sinner are well down the list.
ATP Miami Open Men’s Singles Odds
| Seed | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| [1] | Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | +250 |
| [2] | Alexander Zverev (GER) | +550 |
| [14] | Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) | +600 |
| [3] | Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | +1000 |
| [5] | Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +1200 |
| [7] | Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) | +1600 |
| [10] | Cameron Norrie (GBR) | +2500 |
| [WC] | Nick Kyrgios (AUS) | +2500 |
| [9] | Jannik Sinner (ITA) | +2800 |
| [4] | Matteo Berrettini (ITA) | +2800 |
| [8] | Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | +3300 |
| [6] | Casper Ruud (NOR) | +4000 |
| [12] | Denis Shapovalov (CAN) | +5000 |
| [11] | Taylor Fritz (USA) | +5000 |
| [22] | Gaël Monfils (FRA) | +5000 |
| – | Jenson Brooksby (USA) | +6600 |
| [20] | John Isner (USA) | +6600 |
| [WC] | Andy Murray (GBR) | +8000 |
Odds as of March 22 at BetMGM
Daniil Medvedev is the favorite to win, as is most often the case. But as with most of his generation, he has never done especially well in Miami.
A quarterfinal in 2021 was by far his best. He needs to better that in 2022 to get to No. 1 again after Djokovic squeezed past him in Monday’s tennis rankings.
That’s unlikely if there is a prop to be had on that one.
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Champion Hurkacz a Longshot to Repeat
Winning in Miami was Hubert Hurkacz’s career highlight so far.
But he’s a modest 12-8 in Masters 1000 tournaments since then which, for a top-10 player, is fairly mediocre.
Sinner is just 7-8 at this level since his effort last year. He withdrew from his round-of-16 match against Nick Kyrgios last week at Indian Wells when he woke up feeling ill.
Alexander Zverev, right behind Medvedev on the list of favorites, has never done well in Miami except in 2018, when he reached the final. That was four long years ago.
To sum up, just about every player is a longshot at some level.
Previous Miami Open Winners and Finalists
| Year | Champion | Finalist |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | [26] Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | [21] Jannik Sinner (ITA) |
| 2020 | (Not held) | (Not held) |
| 2019 | [4] Roger Federer (SUI) | [7] John Isner (USA) |
| 2018 | [14] John Isner (USA) | [4] Alexander Zverev (GER) |
| 2017 | [4] Roger Federer (SUI) | [5] Rafael Nadal (ESP) |
| 2016 | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [6] Kei Nishikori (JPN) |
| 2015 | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [3] Andy Murray (GBR) |
| 2014 | [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) |
| 2013 | [2] Andy Murray (GBR) | [3] David Ferrer (ESP) |
Top Half Full of Danger Matches for Medvedev
If the No. 1 seed has the most optimal route to the fourth round, it gets tougher from there.
ATP Miami Open Top Seeds – Best Previous Results
| Player | Main-Draw Appearances | Career W/L | Best Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Daniil Medvedev | 3 | 6-3 | QF (2021) |
| [2] Alexander Zverev | 6 | 10-6 | F (2018) |
| [3] Stefanos Tsitsipas | 3 | 5-3 | QF (2021) |
| [4] Matteo Berrettini | 1 | 0-1 | R128 (2019) |
| [5] Andrey Rublev | 6 | 8-6 | SF (2021) |
| [6] Casper Ruud | 2 | 0-2 | R128 (2017, 2021) |
| [7] Félix Auger-Aliassime | 2 | 6-2 | SF (2019) |
| [8] Hubert Hurkacz | 2 | 8-1 | Champion (2021) |
Zverev and Rublev look to have smoother paths to a semifinal clash. But Rublev could have Gaël Monfils, big-serving Reilly Opelka and Sinner in his way.
First-Round Matches to Watch
Nick Kyrgios (-350) vs Adrian Mannarino (+260)
Kyrgios has never faced the wonder that is Adrian Mannarino, who has posted some good wins in Miami in his career.
He takes some getting used to, as he takes the ball so early and flat and moves so well.
Kyrgios had a great Indian Wells, losing in three sets to Nadal. But a first-rounder against Mannarino is traditionally the type of lower-key match he has trouble getting up for.
😆
Does @NickKyrgios tell @BenStiller how to act? Don’t think so…#IndianWells pic.twitter.com/wrq9j5VBSi
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 18, 2022
The Aussie loves Miami and has done well (making the semifinals in his first two appearances). But he hasn’t played it since 2019; that earlier success came at the tournament’s old site on Key Biscayne.
It definitely feels like a potential upset.
Gilles Simon (+140) vs [WC] Jack Draper (-185)
The 20-year-old Draper has received another Miami wild card and is in the top 150 for the first time. But he did that the Challenger level. Draper has won three this year – all indoors in the same spot in Forli, Italy.
He hasn’t played in nearly a month.
His Miami debut last year was a … rough one.
Simon, now 37, is playing Miami for the 15th time. He’s lost his last three openers. But he also has made the quarterfinals three times.
It’s somewhat strange that Draper is the favorite; Simon looks to have a good shot.
Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev (+250)
Good Longshot: Andrey Rublev (+1200)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
