Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritz Odds & Prediction – Paris Masters Quarterfinals
- Novak Djokovic will play unseeded Taylor Fritz in the Paris Masters quarterfinals Friday (11 am ET)
- In his first tournament since the US Open, Djokovic got a first-round bye, and a walkover from Gaël Monfils
- Djokovic is undefeated against Fritz; read on for analysis and best bets
Taylor Fritz is 11-2 (so far) in his last three tournaments.
The American, who turned 24 last week, reached the Indian Wells semifinals, the final in St. Petersburg last week and now is into the Paris Masters quarterfinals.
But on Friday he must face world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, against whom he is 0-4.
Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritz Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -4.5 (-140) | -650 | O 20.5 (-125) |
| Taylor Fritz (USA) | +4.5 (+100) | +400 | U 20.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Nov. 4 at DraftKings
Easy Run to the Quarters for Djokovic
Not having played since the crushing disappointment in the US Open final (where he was going for the rare calendar Grand Slam), Djokovic was away more than seven weeks.
He needed matches; it was smart to also enter the doubles. Luckily, he got two matches there, because the singles have been sparse.
WELCOME BACK, NOVAK!
Playing his first singles match in 51 days, @DjokerNole made a winning return in Paris today with a 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 victory over Marton Fucsovics.
Djokovic is now a step closer to a seventh year-end No. 1 finish.
HOW HE CAN CLINCH IT: https://t.co/cYT3831FKt pic.twitter.com/41x56JGgnf
— TENNIS (@Tennis) November 2, 2021
After a first-round bye in singles, the Serb needed three sets to get past the sturdy Marton Fucsovics.
Djokovic played a relatively clean match overall. But his second serve and second-serve return quality likely got him through.
Fucsovics won just 29 percent of points on Djokovic’s second serve. And the Hungarian won just 36 percent of his own second serves.
Djokovic went 4-for-11 on break chances. Fucsovics was opportunistic: a perfect 2-for-2.
But as often is the case, he came close to a monumental upset – but fell just short.
Walkover in the Third Round vs Monfils
Djokovic was due for a popcorn match with Gaël Monfils in the third round Thursday.
But after a comeback win over countryman Adrian Mannarino the previous night, a muscle tear in his adductor forced the flashy Frenchman to pull out.
📢 Fans, spectateurs, vous avez un message de la part de @Gael_Monfils 🙏🏻 🇫🇷. #RolexParisMasters pic.twitter.com/Yv9R8ZCj1G
— ROLEX PARIS MASTERS (@RolexPMasters) November 4, 2021
That puts Djokovic in the quarters very much match-untested.
There isn’t much he hasn’t handled in his career at this point. But it’s not ideal.
Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritz Head-to-Head
| 34 (May 22, 1987) | Age | 24 (Oct. 28, 1997) |
| Belgrade, Serbia | Birthplace | Rancho Santa Fe, Calif. |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-4 |
| 85 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 1 (July 4, 2011) | Career High Ranking | No. 24 (March 2, 2020) |
| No. 1 | Current Ranking | No. 26 |
| $153,120,635 | Career Prize Money | $5,331,139 |
| 46-6 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 33-20 |
| 4 | Career Head to Head | 0 |
Drama Down Under as Djokovic Beats Fritz in Five
If their encounters on clay weren’t particularly memorable beyond Djokovic winning them all in straight sets, this year’s Australian Open was the opposite.
Earlier in the day, the Victorian government had ordered a snap five-day COVID lockdown. The Australians had to be home by midnight. So around 11:30 pm, fans vacated Rod Laver Arena en masse in the middle of their third-round match.
Djokovic also looked cooked with an abdominal injury. Somehow, he got through.
Here’s his post-match interview, his voice echoing in the deserted arena.
Fritz Upsets Two Seeds
Fritz comes in hot, with upsets over No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev and No. 10 Cameron Norrie in the last two rounds. Norrie has been one of the hottest players on the ATP Tour at this end of the season.
He will become the No. 1 American next Monday, win or lose against Djokovic.
And Fritz will at least be at a career-high. If he manages to beat Djokovic he likely will find himself in the top 20 for the first time.
Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritz Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Rome Masters (R32) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 7-6 (5) | Djokovic |
| 2021 | Australian Open (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (1), 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 6-2 | Djokovic |
| 2019 | Madrid Masters (R32) | Outdoor Clay | 6-4, 6-2 | Djokovic |
| 2019 | Monte Carlo Masters (R16) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 6-0 | Djokovic |
Djokovic’s Return is Fritz’s Problem
The problem with this matchup is that with the exception of an injured Djokovic in Australia, Fritz has never had a sniff.
To be fair, Fritz is a long way from mastering the red clay.
The slowish Paris surface gives Djokovic extra time to track down Fritz’s technically superior, effortless-looking serve. His biggest weapon, neutralized.
So obviously Djokovic is the huge favorite.
But Fritz might win a set – if so, likely the first set (+280) as Djokovic might need a hot minute to get the machine purring after so little singles this week.
Best Bet: Fritz wins the first set, but Djokovic wins in three (+750)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
