Paula Badosa vs Garbiñe Muguruza Odds & Prediction – WTA Finals Semifinals

• A first in WTA Finals history, as two Spaniards meet in the singles semifinals Tuesday at 3 pm ET
• Garbiñe Muguruza and Paula Badosa are meeting for the first time in their careers
• Read on as we break down their road to the semis, and make a prediction
  

The last time there was a Spanish player in the final of the WTA year-end championship was Arantxa Sanchez Vicario in 1993.

That was the year Garbiñe Muguruza was born. Paula Badosa wouldn’t come along until four years later.

But on Tuesday, the two will meet in Guadalajara, thus guaranteeing a Spaniard in the finals in 2021.

Paula Badosa vs Garbiñe Muguruza Odds

Odds as of Nov. 16 at DraftKings

The Queen, and the Up-and-Comer

The regal Muguruza has not minded being the queen of Spanish women’s tennis – the only one, with the illness then retirement of Carla Suárez Navarro, at the top of the game.

But Muguruza and Suárez Navarro, who is a few years older, had a friendly relationship and even made the WTA Tour Finals together in doubles. The dynamic was different.

So it’s been interesting to witness Muguruza’s reaction as she learned she would play a younger, rising rival who’s been getting a lot of attention after winning Indian Wells last month.

https://youtu.be/s41-0JFj-Vs

Her original comments during her on-court interview after qualifying were measured; she spoke about “them showing the high level of women’s tennis in Spain”.

Later in her press conference, she was a little forthcoming.

“We shared fun moments in the Olympics. We’ve talked a little bit. We get to know a little bit more of each other. It’s a special week to bond,” Muguruza said. “She’s always had the talent. I think now
she’s putting the puzzle together. She’s playing great. Everybody can see it.”

It’s a pretty big admit for Muguruza to praise another player. So that’s the ultimate compliment.

Paula Badosa vs Garbiñe Muguruza Head-to-Head

Rookie Playing Like the Veteran

This is Muguruza’s fourth time qualifying for the WTA Finals. She made it three years running from 2015-17. But not since.

Only in her first appearance did she get out of the group stage. In 2016 and 2017, she went 1-2 and went home.

Badosa is a rookie. But it speaks to her late-season form that she came out and won her first two group-stage matches.

She defeated an edgy Aryna Sabalenka in her opener, 6-4, 6-0. And then she overcame Maria Sakkari (who also is in the semis) – also in straight sets, 7-6 (4), 6-4. Her third match was essentially meaningless, so it wasn’t a shocker that the winless Iga Swiatek defeated her (and on Badosa’s 24th birthday).

Muguruza has had a rougher road.

Karolina Plilskova edged her out in a third-set tiebreak in her opening match. Muguruza bounced back. Still, she was down a set to Barbora Krejcikova before coming back to win.

In what was a must-win match on Sunday, she had some help from opponent Anett Kontaveit. The Estonian was already assured of making the semifinals. And she definitely didn’t play her best – to say the least.

Muguruza was happy to take it.

Crowd Split on All-Spanish Clash

it’s a pretty big occasion for a first-ever meeting.

Muguruza has a head start with the Mexican crowd, which already adores her as the longtime top Spaniard and from winning the WTA Tour event in Monterrey on two occasions.

But Badosa also has been a big hit.

Muguruza, loving life in Guadalajara: "The Latin America environment, air, people, crowd, everything. I love it here. I feel so home and welcome. People are very good with me. … It is very special for me. This is once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for me to play the Finals here." pic.twitter.com/BV2KYhIzyC

— Tennis Majors (@Tennis_Majors) November 15, 2021

It feels as though the crowd might well get behind the player who’s behind. But when faced with a choice, stick with their queen.

Ultimately, Badosa serves harder. She’s more nimble around the court and has a little more variety. And a bigger head of steam.

But Muguruza is a proven champion – a two-time Grand Slam winner. And she’s more aware of how rare an opportunity it is to win “the biggest tournament of the year” – as she put it. And to win it in a place that loves her.

Best Bet: Muguruza in three sets (+400)