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Rafael Nadal Heavy -300 Favorite to Win Men’s 4th Quarter at US Open

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Tennis

Updated Apr 4, 2020 · 2:19 PM PDT

Rafael Nadal is a big favorite to advance to the U.S. Open semifinals (Photo By: The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas [CC License].
  • Is the 4th Quarter bracket at the US Open a one man race?
  • Odds indicate Rafael Nadal is going to easily make the semi-finals
  • Is it better to take a flier or bet money on Nadal with a small return expected?

The more things change, the more they remain the same. The U.S. Open has had some upsets in the first week, but no major surprises. In other words, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal are still standing.

At the start of the tournament it was obvious Nadal was playing in the easier half of the draw primarily because Djokovic and Federer were on the opposite side. In a shocker to nobody, the big chalk has held, while other strong players have provided inconsistent results. That leaves Nadal in an even more enviable position, and the odds to win the tournament have adjusted accordingly.

While the exits of Karen Khachanov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Dominic Thiem from the third quarter perhaps will make Nadal’s semifinal easier, little of note has changed in the fourth. Let’s look at the updated odds.

Odds to Win 2019 US Open Men’s 4th Quarter

Player Odds
Rafael Nadal -300
Alexander Zverev +450
Marin Cilic +900
Diego Schwartzman +1000
John Isner +1200
Matteo Berrettini +1200
Aljaz Bedene +3300
Hyeon Chung +3300
Tennys Sandgren +3300

*Odds taken 08/30/19

The Favorite: Rafael Nadal

The implied probability of -300 is 75 percent. It is not crazy to look at this group and get the feeling there’s no way Nadal doesn’t advance.

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An 18 time major winner, Nadal has prospered in New York on three occasions. Last year he reached the semis and in 2017 he won the title. After a straight set opening match win this year, he earned a walkover second round decision, saving his legs. Nadal is in an excellent position.

Top Contender: Alexander Zverev

There is an argument to be made that the 22-year-old German is the only player in the section who can derail Nadal. That said, the number six seed has not done his best work at major championships.

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Zverev needed five sets in his opener against Radu Albot, and was forced to go the distance again in beating Frances Tiafoe in round two. A winner of three masters titles, he has never been past the quarters at a major, and without his two trips to the quarters at the French Open, his deepest major run is a fourth round Wimbledon appearance.

Longshot: Diego Schwartzman

His best surface may be clay, but Schwartzman offers a little value here since he is opposite Nadal within the fourth quarter. In other words, he would face Zverev prior to Nadal, giving Rafa one more chance to lose before they’d need to battle.

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Schwartzman has reached two major quarters including at the U.S. Open in 2017. He has looked strong beating Robin Haase, and Egor Gerasimov in straight sets, and closing out each match with 6-0 exclamation points.

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