Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem Australian Open Quarterfinals Odds & Pick

Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will play each other for the 14th time at the Australian Open quarterfinals. Photo by @ATPTour (Twitter)
  • Rafael Nadal will face Dominic Thiem in the quarterfinals of the Australian open on 3:30 AM EST, Wednesday morning
  • This will be the 14th time the two players have played each other
  • Nadal has only dropped one set the entire tournament

No. 1 seed and World No. 1, Rafael Nadal will take on the No. 5 seed, Dominic Thiem in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. The two have faced each other over a dozen times with Nadal winning 69% of the time. And his is the favorite going into this match with -310 odds.

Nadal vs Thiem Australian Open Quarterfinal Odds

Player Spread Win Total
Rafael Nadal -4.5 (-110) -310 O 39.5 (-120)
Dominic Thiem +4.5 (-120) +250 U 39.5 (-110)

Odds taken Jan. 27

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal has had a fairly smooth ride during the first four rounds of the Aussie Open. He swept his first three opponents and only dropped one set to Australian, Nick Kyrgios. With his win against Kyrgios, Nadal booked his place in his 41st career Grand Slam quarterfinal.

Kyrgios, his hardest opponent in the tournament yet, played incredible tennis, forcing two tie-breaks in the third and fourth set, with Nadal ultimately winning them.

Nadal knew this was going to be a tough match going into it, but he didn’t focus on one specific pattern or play against Kyrgios. He’s too good of an all-around player to do that.

With one of the biggest and best serves on the tour, Kyrgios landed 25 aces, to Nadal’s 12. With his serve, strong forehand and backhand, he really forced Nadal to focus his game on the rallies. Nadal admitted to being under pressure the whole match.

“The problem is when he’s serving, you don’t have many chances. He has a big serve, so you are under pressure the whole match. That’s the story about playing against the big servers, especially Nick, who is a big server [and] is a very good player from the baseline, too. So you’re under pressure during the whole match.” – Rafa

Dominic Thiem

Dominic Thiem defeated No. 10 seed, Gael Monfils in the fourth round of the Aussie Open to book himself into his first Australian Open quarterfinals. He beat Monfils 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 in an hour and 50 minutes. Playing his way to the quarterfinals is big for Thiem, who hasn’t been winning much lately. He lost two of three at the ATP Cup, and his last two Grand Slam appearances, at Wimbledon and the US Open ended in him losing in the first round.

Thiem has now won eight of the past nine sets to reach the quarterfinals. He also held a 5-0 head-to-head career lead against his opponent in the fourth round. He played good tennis, but definitely gave Monfils the opportunity to go on and win, but Monfils didn’t do enough to move Thiem around the court. Thiem was able to stay on the baseline, where he likes to play best.

Nadal vs Thiem Head to Head


1 World Ranking 5
9 Wins 4
33 Age 26
Left-Handed Plays Right-Handed

This is the second time Nadal and Thiem will be facing off against each other on hard court. The last time this happened, it was the 2018 US Open quarterfinals, a match that lasted four hours and 49 minutes. It was one of the most electric matches to be played.

Best Bet

Rafa is the favorite heading into this quarterfinal match. He’s shown that he is in top form as he sent home Aussie Nick Kyrgios. But Thiem won’t be giving him an easy match. Thiem has grown a liking for hard courts, and has adapted to the physical game on the courts as of last year.

This will be Thiem’s first Australian Open quarterfinals, a match Nadal knows a few things about. It will be interesting. Probably not a rematch of the 2018 US Open quarterfinal match, but if it’s even half of what we saw there, it’ll be a good one.

Best Bet: Nadal -310

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