Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz Odds & Prediction – ATP Indian Wells Men’s Singles Final

• Rafael Nadal looks for his fourth straight title, and his 21st consecutive win of 2022 in the Indian Wells final
• Taylor Fritz is looking for his second and biggest career title, on his home turf in Southern California
• Nadal is a big favorite, but he had a marathon Saturday in the semis. We break down the matchup.

This will be the second time Taylor Fritz meets Rafael Nadal.

And both times, they will have played in tournament finals.

But the Indian Wells Masters final (Sunday, March 20, not before 6pm ET) is much bigger than the Acapulco final they played two years ago.

Nadal vs Fritz Odds

Odds as of March 20. See these BetMGM promo codes before you bet on these odds.

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Taylor Fritz Betting Analysis

Fritz beat three top-15 players on his way to the semifinals at Indian Wells last October.

He’s gone one better this time.

The 24-year-old defeated No. 7 seed Andrey Rublev 7-5, 6-4 in a one hour, 50-minute match Saturday that put him in the final.

Fritz won 62% of his second-serve points against Rublev. But he’s already prepared for the fact that Nadal is a much better returner, and that he’ll have to battle much harder to hold serve.

Nadal vs Fritz Head-to-Head

Rafael Nadal Betting Analysis

It has been anything but a cakewalk for Rafael Nadal during this Indian Wells.

But his semifinal match against fellow Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz, who is little more than half his age, was a brutal struggle.

Nadal began well – opting to hang back and rally, warming up the sore body slowly.  If he thought that Alcaraz would be so full of adrenaline and exuberance he might well tire himself out like a sugar-bombed toddler, he wasn’t too far wrong.

Then Mother Nature took over.

It wasn’t just the wind. It was the sand that got in their eyes. And it was the napkins flying everywhere, the singles stakes falling over.

Dear wind,

NOT THE BOTTLES 😱🌬#IndianWells pic.twitter.com/8itO3pUSHJ

— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) March 20, 2022

Even Nadal’s water bottles kept flopping.

NO ONE touches Nadal’s water bottles.

But even the man himself had to laugh.

In the end, things calmed down some in the third set.

And while Nadal wasted so many opportunities to put the match away – a lot of it due to Alcaraz’s fine play on break points and his sterling defence throughout – he ended up getting the job done. Barely.

Rafael Nadal vs Taylor Fritz Match History

Fritz  considers that he’s a much improved player over their only previous meeting, in the Acapulco final two years ago. Back then, he felt Nadal was basically toying with him.

Fritz doesn’t move nearly as well as Alcaraz does. So Nadal will be able to hit more winners and create more forced errors.

The big question will be whether he’s good to go.

Fritz vs Nadal Prediction

Nadal made a rare call to the trainer during Saturday’s semifinal, after feeling a pain his chest he attributed to mishitting so many balls in the wind from awkward positions.

Nadal has averaged nearly 2.5 hours per match, over five matches during Indian Wells.

How much he has left in the tank, and how he’ll feel when he wakes up Sunday morning, are questions to be answered.

What won’t be in doubt – assuming he’s fit to play – will be his effort level.

It’s a tough task for Fritz to try to get through that.

Best Bet: Nadal in Two Sets