Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic Odds & Prediction – Astana Open Finals
- Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic came through a stacked field to reach the finals of the Astana Open
- Djokovic is the favorite for the final, which will take place at 4:30 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 9 (6:30 a.m. ET)
- Read on as we break down the matchup between familiar foes, and make a prediction
Both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic had epic battles in their semifinals at the Astana Open Saturday.
It will be hard to top those in Sunday’s final, especially with Tsitsipas having lost his last six matches against the 35-year-old Serb.
Tsitsipas vs Djokovic Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [3] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | +3.5 (+107) | +275 | O 22.5 (+104) |
| [4/WC] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -3.5 (-136) | -375 | U 22.5 (-130) |
Odds as of Oct. 8 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Japan Open.
Djokovic is the favorite in this one at -375 odds on the moneyline.
Shock Retirement from Medvedev in Astana
Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev have met quite a few times already in their young careers, a back-and-forth rivalry that began in the Next Gen Finals in 2018.
Tsitsipas was ahead 5-4, after winning their most recent meeting in Madrid this spring.
Saturday’s Tsitsipas win was a close three-setters, as the Madrid match was.
For Djokovic, who had lost four times to Medvedev (US Open, ATP Finals and two Masters 1000s), the challenge was to get past his relative lack of match play this season and put on his very best for their first meeting of 2022.
He did, helped by the fact that he came into it with seven straight wins (all in straight sets) – 14 in a row, if you count his last official tournament at Wimbledon.
And Medvedev, who’s had a rough year (by his standards) was up to the task.
For two sets.
🚨Djokovic reaches a final after Medvedev retires due to an injury after the 2nd set 4-6 7-6
“He told me he pulled an adductor in his leg,” Djokovic said in on-court interview #AstanaOpen
“I really hope the injury is nothing too serious. Daniil is a great guy, he’s a fighter" pic.twitter.com/k2dycWO2Fw
— The Net magazine • (@thenet_m) October 8, 2022
And then, suddenly and rather inexplicably after losing a tight second-set tiebreaker, he went over, shook Djokovic’s hand – and retired from the match.
It’s rare to see Djokovic look so … confused after a victory.
Tsitsipas vs Djokovic Head-to-Head
| 24 (Aug. 12, 1998) | 24 (May 22, 1987) | |
| Athens, Greece | Birthplace | Belgrade, Serbia |
| 6-4 | Height | 6-2 |
| 9 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 89 |
| No. 3 (Aug. 9, 2021) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 1 (July 4, 2011) |
| No. 6 | Current Ranking | No. 7 |
| $20,525,795 | Career Prize Money | $159,143,258 |
| 53-18 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 32-6 |
| 2 | Head-to-Head Wins | 7 |
Djokovic Dominates Head-to-Head vs Tsitsipas
If Djokovic had a little bad Medvedev luck on his side Saturday, he will feel as though Sunday’s match is a far more comfortable proposition in comparison.
The Serb has lost just twice in 11 meetings with the 24-year-old from Greece.
And the last time was three years ago. Both wins came with Tsitsipas was on the comeup, arguably playing better tennis than he is now.
Tsitsipas vs Djokovic Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Rome Masters (F) | Outdoor Clay | 6-0 7-6 (5) | Djokovic |
| 2021 | French Open (F) | Outdoor Clay | 6-7 (6) 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2021 | Rome Masters (QF) | Outdoor Clay | 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 | Djokovic |
| 2020 | French Open (SF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3 6-2 5-7 4-6 6-1 | Djokovic |
| 2020 | Dubai (F) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3,6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2019 | Paris Masters (QF) | Indoor Hard | 6-1, 6-2 | Djokovic |
| 2019 | Shanghai Masters (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 | Tsitsipas |
| 2019 | Madrid Masters (F) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2018 | Masters Canada (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-7 (5) 6-3 | Tsitsipas |
And Djokovic has broken Tsitsipas’s tennis heart twice, both in Paris at the French Open. When you consider clay is probably Tsitsipas’s best surface, it hurts even more.
And after being up two sets to none against Djokovic in last year’s final – only to lose in five – you could argue Tsitsipas (like Medvedev after losing the Australian Open to Rafael Nadal this year in similar circumstances) has not yet quite recovered.
Their last meeting was in the Rome final in May.
Tsitsipas vs Djokovic Pick
While it’s good to see Tsitsipas pick up his level as the season-ending championships approach, the more impressive effort of the two is from Djokovic, who has missed so many big events this year because of his decision to remain unvaccinated.
He was… FIRED up during the match against Medvedev. Which makes sense, given their competitive history. And also the pure quality of that match.
This is only the ninth tournament for Djokovic this season. And while he’ll still make the ATP Finals by virtue of winning Wimbledon and staying in the top-20 in the singles race (per the rules), he’d move up to No. 9 if he wins this match, with a number of big tournaments to come.
He’s hungry. And fresh – he’s played 38 singles matches, to Tsitsipas’s 71.
Scary combination. Still, Djokovic has just enough rust to make this potentially very competitive.
Best Bet: Over 22.5 Games (+104)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
