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Value in Azarenka at Australian Open After Her Odds Plummet?

Victoria Azarenka
Victoria Azarenka returns to the Australian Open for the first time since 2016. By Christian Mesiano (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • The Australian Open runs from January 14-27 in Melbourne
  • Is there value in Victoria Azarenka winning her third Australian Open?
  • Which contenders have seen key line moves? 

The first slam of the season is nearly here with the Australian Open set to begin on Monday, January 14th.

With so many smaller tournaments taking place in the lead up, Women’s Singles Australian Open odds have already seen plenty of movement. While some player’s odds have shortened, others, like former world number one Victoria Azarenka, have seen their odds continue to plummet.

Women’s Singles Australian Open Odds

Player Odds at Bovada
Serena Williams +400
Angelique Kerber +750
Aryna Sabalenka +1100
Naomi Osaka +1200
Elina Svitolina +1400
Ashleigh Barty +1600
Karolina Pliskova +1600
Petra Kvitová +2000
Simona Halep +2000
Sloane Stephens +2000
Victoria Azarenka +4000

*For a full list please visit the link in the table; odds taken 1/12/19

Can Azarenka Regain Her Form?

Azarenka’s Australian Open odds have been on a steady decline this month. On January 2 her average odds were as short as +1200. However, that quickly dropped to +2900 on January 10.

The slide has continued, seeing them now drift out to +4000 at Bovada. At this price is there too much value to pass up?

The 29-year-old Belarusian is making her 12th appearance at the Australian, but first since 2016. Azarenka is a two-time winner of the tournament having won in back-to-back years in 2012 and 2013. Those years were the prime of her career.

She also reached the semis and finals at Wimbleton and the US Open in 2012, and the semis and finals of the French and US Open in 2013.

Azarenka is a two-time winner of the tournament having won in back-to-back years in 2012 and 2013.

Her form has since declined, having never finished higher than the quarter-finals in a major tournament. Last year her best performance in a Grand Slam event was the Round of 32 at the US Open.

That said, now the mother of a two-year-old, her priorities have changed these past couple seasons.

Azarenka enters this tournament with much to prove as she now ranks 52nd. Her warm up to the AO also didn’t get off to a great start, being eliminated from the Auckland Open in the Round of 32. Azarenka was defeated by Venus Williams 3-6, 6-1, 3-6.

Despite the juicy odds, Azarenka simply hasn’t won anything significant of late to warrant my money.

Look To the 3rd Quarter For Futures Value

While Azarenka may be reaching a little too far down the odds sheet there’s still some good plus-money out there.

Odds have moved on world number two Angelique Kerber since I picked her as a best bet last week. Kerber, the fourth favorite at the time with odds of +1000 is now the second favorite at +750.

The German, playing in the AO’s 4th Quarter, recently made it to the quarter-finals of the Sydney International falling in straight sets to Petra Kvitová.

I want to single out a few more women who’re emerging as contenders in the 3rd Quarter.

Australian native Ashleigh Barty was nowhere near the favorites conversation last week but today is the sixth favorite at +1600. The 15th ranked Barty played in the Sydney finals earlier this morning, also coming up short to Kvitová over three sets.

If you’ve been tracking the Women’s Singles odds for a few months, you’d also see that Aryna Sabalenka’s odds have been moving, and fast. At +3300 back in October, they were cut to +1400 the next month and are down to +1100 today.

The 2018 WTA Newcomer of the Year has a lot of hype around her this year. The 20-year-old made it to the Round of 16 in last year’s US Open and began 2019 with a tournament win at the Shenzhen Open and a Round of 32 loss to Kvitová at the Sydney International.

Another interesting bet you can make is quarters betting. Each of Sabalenka (+350), Barty (+450) and Kvitová (+500) lead as favorties to win the 3rd Quarter.

With the way the draw is set up it’s possible Barty could face either Kvitová or Sabalenka in the Quarter-Finals. With the longer odds I’ll bet both Barty at +1600 and Kvitová at +2000 to win outright and if either win the 3rd Quarter, I’ll be sitting on big odds with a semi-finalist.

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