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WTA Finals Odds & Predictions (Nov 2) – Jabeur vs Pegula & Sakkari vs Sabalenka

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Nov 2, 2022 · 7:35 AM PDT

Aryna Sabalenka
Oct 31, 2022; Forth Worth, TX, USA; Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) reacts to winning her match against Ons Jabeur (TUN) on day one of the WTA Finals at Dickies Arena. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
  • The second round of group play at the WTA Finals in Fort Worth begins November 2
  • Round 1 losers from the “Nancy Richey” group play for survival; winners to try to clinch a semifinal spot
  • Read on as we break down the two singles matchups, and make predictions

The format of group play at the WTA Finals pits the two players who won their opening-round matches against each other in Round 2; the two losers play each other.

Few would have expected No. 2 seed Ons Jabeur and No. 3 Jessica Pegula would be “losers”, and thus playing for survival when they meet at 6:00 pm ET November 2.

Jabeur vs Pegula Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[2] Ons Jabeur (TUN) +1.5 (+112) +110 O 21.5 (-125)
[3]  Jessica Pegula (USA) -1.5 (-112) -136 U 21.5 (+100)

Odds as of Nov. 2 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the WTA Finals

The winner of this match will be at 1-1, and still alive in the quest for the two available semifinal spots.

The loser will be 0-2, and will face not only a must-win match in the third and final round but will have to hope that everything else falls their way.

 

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Jabeur Wins Last Three vs Pegula

On paper, it doesn’t set up well for Jessica Pegula, who has been beaten by Ons Jabeur in their last three meetings. Two of those came on hard courts.

The only wins the American has posted over Jabeur came in Canada. Both times, Pegula reached the tournament final.

Jabeur vs Pegula Head-to-Head

Ons Jabeur
VS
Jessica Pegula
28 (Aug. 28, 1994) Age 28 (Feb. 24, 1994)
Ksar El Hellar, Tunisia Birthplace Buffalo, NY
5-6 Height 5-7
3 Career WTA Singles Titles 2
No. 2 (June 27, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 3 (Oct. 24, 2022)
No. 2 Current Ranking No. 3
$8,964,743 Career Prize Money $6,280,356
46-16 2022 Won/Loss Record 42-19
3 Head-to-Head Wins 2

If there is hope for Pegula, it is that she has been playing the best tennis of her career since they last met, in Madrid in May.

But that may well be thin soup.

Jabeur vs Pegula Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 Madrid (F) Outdoor Clay 7-5, 0-6, 6-2 Jabeur
2022 Dubai (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-1 Jabeur
2021 Chicago 500 (R16) Outdoor Hard 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 Jabeur
2021 Montreal (QF) Outdoor Hard 1-6, 7-6 (4), 6-0 Pegula
2018 Quebec City (R16) Indoor Carpet 7-6 (3), 6-4 Pegula

It may well prove to be that the double-up scheduling in both singles and doubles, and the accumulation of pressure, are Pegula’s undoing in her first-ever qualification for the WTA Finals.

She rarely looks as tense on the court as she did Monday against Maria Sakkari.

Though shy of matches, Jabeur had patches of very good play against Sabalenka. And she won’t be facing the same explosive power when she takes on the American.

Jabeur vs Pegula Prediction

The odds for this one were dead even last night. Overnight, Pegula has become a slight favorite.

But we’re looking at Jabeur as the favorite because of the head-to-head, Pegula’s tougher schedule and the “home-field advantage” factor that might well be a disadvantage.

Best Bet: Jabeur in Two Sets (+235)

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[5] Maria Sakkari (GRE) +1.5 (-110) +112 O 21.5 (-117)
[7] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) -1.5 (-114) -137 U 21.5 (-108)

The Sakkari vs Sabalenka matchup is another in which the Belarussian Sabalenka has a fairly clear recent head-to-head advantage.

But the two did not meet in all of 2022, which was a struggle of a season for both.

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head

Maria Sakkari
VS
Aryna Sabalenka
27 (July 25, 1995) Age 24 (May 5, 1998)
Athens, Greece Birthplace Minsk, Belarus
5-8 Height 5-11
1 Career WTA Singles Titles 10
No. 3 (March 21, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021)
No. 5 Current Ranking No. 7
$7,582,028 Career Prize Money $11,424,910
38-22 2022 Won/Loss Record 31-20
2 Head-to-Head Wins 4

Sabalenka’s Power the Edge

As much as Sabalenka’s serve has let her down this year, she served well when it counted in her Monday match vs Ons Jabeur.

The Tunisian out-aced her, 7-1 (and Sabalenka had six double faults). And she won just 25 percent of points on Jabeur’s first serve. But somehow all that wasn’t really a factor in the end.

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 WTA Finals (RR) Outdoor Hard 7-6 (1), 6-7 (6), 6-3 Sakkari
2021 Abu Dhabi (SF) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-2 Sabalenka
2020 Doha (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-0 Sabalenka
2020 Dubai (R32) Outdoor Hard 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 Sabalenka
2019 Zhuhai Finals (RR) Indoor Hard 6-3, 6-4 Sabalenka
2019 Cincinnati (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-7 (4), 6-4, 6-4 Sakkari

Sabalenka was emotional after that victory, which might have cemented the notion that no matter how much she’s struggling and not playing her best tennis, she can still win.

It could give her wings. But Sakkari, too, could get on a roll after avenging her terse defeat in the finals of the Guadalajara Open to Jessica Pegula just 10 days ago, with a win over the American Monday.

Sakkari vs Sabalenka Prediction

Sabalenka has had far too many three-set matches this season, many of her own doing.

But getting through one Monday will give her confidence she can do it again, if necessary.

She is the strong favorite to win this group now.

Best Bet: Over 23.5 Games (+135)

 

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