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Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty Odds & Prediction – WNBA July 27

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in WNBA

Updated Jul 27, 2023 · 6:00 AM PDT

Breanna Stewart low-fives teammates
May 19, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (30) encourages Liberty center Stefanie Dolson (31) and Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) against the Washington Mystics in the third quarter at Entertainment & Sports Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
  • The New York Liberty are 8.5-point home favorites when they host the Atlanta Dream Thursday
  • Atlanta snapped a 2-game losing streak last game, while New York has won three in a row
  • See below for the latest Dream vs Liberty picks, odds, analysis and best bet

Chasing home court advantage in Round 1 of the WNBA playoffs, the Atlanta Dream (13-10, 7-4 away) can leapfrog the Dallas Wings into fourth if they can beat the New York Liberty (17-5, 9-3 home).

New York appears to be the main challenger to the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces in the WNBA Championship odds, second to Vegas in most major offensive categories. They’ve won three straight and seven of their last eight.

Atlanta has enjoyed their best stretch of hoops this year, with a home-and-home sweep at the hands of the Connecticut Sun the only blemishes in their last 10.

This one gets going Thursday (July 27) at 7pm ET from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY. You can watch the game live on PRIME VIDEO.

Dream vs Liberty Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Atlanta Dream +8.5 (-104) +350 Ov 173.5 (-113)
New York Liberty -8.5 (-118) -480 Un 173.5 (-113)

The Liberty are hefty 8.5-point favorites in this one, and -480 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 82.76%. Two of the four top-scoring teams in the W, the total has been set at 173.5 points.

Atlanta owns the third-best road record in the league at 7-4, while the Liberty have the second-best home record at 9-3.

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Odds as of July 27 at FanDuel. Use a FanDuel promo code to bet on the Dream vs Liberty Thursday and other WNBA action.

Dream Bounce Back vs Mercury

Propelled by a 7-game win streak to lift them a season-best four games over .500, Atlanta dropped back-to-back games against the 3rd-seeded Sun.

They rebounded Tuesday night, however, beating up on the Phoenix Mercury in a 78-65 win. Allisha Gray was one of four Dream players to score in double figures, finishing with 12 points, five rebounds, three assists and two blocks. She’s second on the team in scoring at 17.6 points, adding 5.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists

Rhyne Howard finished with 10 points, three rebounds and two steals. Howard leads the team in scoring at 18.6 points per game, which ranks 10th in the WNBA.

While they sit bottom-4 in points allowed, Atlanta is a top-4 unit in both field goal (42.5%) and 3-point (32.6%) shooting defense. They held Phoenix to 35.8% shooting, including a 5-for-24 mark from distance, a lowly 20.8% clip.

Liberty Outscoring Problems

A team that averages 88.7 points per game on the year, New York has cranked that offense up during their latest 3-game win streak, putting up 94.3 points per game.

Their lowest output came last game, in an 86-82 win over the Seattle Storm, a contest where New York came back from 18 points down midway through the third quarter to earn their 17th win of the season.

Breanna Stewart led the way with 22 points, seven boards and three blocks. She leads the Liberty in both scoring at 22.6 points per game and 9.3 rebounds per contest. Stewart is shooting 47.6% from the floor and 40.4% from beyond the arc.

Sabrina Ionescu shook off a brutal 2-for-14 shooting night to finish with 12 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists for her fourth triple-double on the season. Jonquel Jones finished with 13 points and 17 boards.

The top 3-point shooting team in the W, New York was a bleak 10-for-35 from distance, a 28.6% clip.


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Dream vs Liberty Betting Prediction

Not surprisingly, Atlanta’s lone win against the Liberty this year, an 86-79 decision, came when the Dream held the hometown Liberty to 39.4% shooting for the game, including an 8-for-27 mark from beyond the arc (29.6%).

The other two New York wins have been spectacular blowouts on the road, an average margin of victory of 26.5 points.

In those matchups, the Liberty shot 31-for-65 from three-point range, a blistering 47.7% clip.

Dream vs Liberty Head-to-Head Stats

Atlanta Dream
New York Liberty
85.0 (4th) Points Per Game 88.7 (2nd)
43.4% (7th) Field Goal Percentage 45.7% (2nd)
35.8% (4th) Three-Point Percentage 38.3% (1st)
37.2 (3rd) Rebounds 37.7 (2nd)
18.7 (T-9th) Assists 24.5 (1st)
15.6 (11th) Turnovers 15.1 (10th)
+0.3 (6th) +/- +6.3 (2nd)

Since losing to Atlanta on June 13, the Liberty have just two losses in their last 13, and have not scored less than 81 points in any game.

Atlanta, meanwhile, has gone under 80 points in their last three games, but they are a crisp 4-0 against the spread in their last four in New York. Despite their success, New York has gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven.

Let’s ride Atlanta and hope that 8.5-point cushion is enough.

  • The Pick: Dream +8.5 (-104)
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