15 Crazy Super Bowl Betting Trends
Before you make your final decision between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles for Super Bowl 52, you’ll want to know these 15 mind-blowing, historically-rooted Super Bowl betting trends.
1) Super Bowl Betting Trend #1: Lucky White Jerseys
The only team to win a Super Bowl without wearing their white jerseys in that time is the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 45. The New England Patriots, serving as the home team this year, opted to wear their white jerseys in Super Bowl 52.
2) Super Bowl Betting Trend #2: Favorites Dominate
“Favorites are 34-17 Straight-Up in Super Bowl History”
When it comes to NFL betting, favorites dominated the early Super Bowls, as only three UNDERDOGS won in the first 14 years. This trend has recently reversed.
3) Super Bowl Betting Trend #3: Underdogs Are Striking Back
Last year, the Patriots broke a trend of five-straight UNDERDOGS winning the Super Bowl. The Philadelphia Eagles will serve as the UNDERDOG in Super Bowl 52.
4) Super Bowl Betting Trend #4: The AFC Has Been the Stronger Conference
“The AFC Has Won 4 of the Last 5 Super Bowls”
The only NFC team to win a Super Bowl in the last five years was the Seattle Seahawks when they dismantled the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 48. All of the Falcons, Panthers, 49ers and even those mighty Seahawks (Super Bowl 49) have fallen victim to AFC teams.
5) Super Bowl Betting Trend #5: The NFC Owns the North
New Jersey, Indiana, Minnesota, and Michigan (twice) are the five northern states to host Super Bowls. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the only AFC team to win in a northern state when they beat the Seahawks 21-10 in Super Bowl 40. This year’s Minnesota will be hosting the Super Bowl for the second time.
6) Super Bowl Betting Trend #6: Champions Defend
“Defending Super Bowl Champions Are 8-4 When They Make it Back the Following Year”
The Green Bay Packers (Super Bowls 1 & 2), Miami Dolphins (Super Bowls 7 & 8), Pittsburgh Steelers (Super Bowls 9 & 10 and 13 & 14), San Francisco 49ers (Super Bowls 23 & 24), Dallas Cowboys (Super Bowls 27 & 28), Denver Broncos (Super Bowls 32 & 33), and New England Patriots (Super Bowls 38 & 39) have all repeated as Super Bowl champions.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys (Super Bowls 12 & 13), the Washington [REDACTED] (Super Bowls 17 & 18), Green Bay Packers (Super Bowls 31 & 32), and Seattle Seahawks (Super Bowls 48 & 49) all failed to defend their title.
In Super Bowl 52, the New England Patriots will try to join the Pittsburgh Steelers as the only two franchises to win back-to-back Super Bowls twice.
7) Super Bowl Betting Trend #7: Home Sweet Dome
Stadiums with retractable roofs are not included in this trend. NRG Stadium (Houston) and the University of Phoenix Stadium have each hosted twice, but possess retractable roofs.
The dome now known as the Mercedes-Benz Superdome has been the most frequented stadium, hosting the Super Bowl seven times. The Miami metropolitan area has served as the host city/region an NFL-high 11 times. US Bank Stadium, which is a fixed-roof stadium, will host Super Bowl 52.
8) Super Bowl Betting Trend #8: When Top Seeds Clash, the NFC Is King
“When No. 1 Seeds Meet in the Super Bowl, the NFC is 8-4”
Although the AFC has won the two most recent battles between top seeds (Denver over Carolina in Super Bowl 50 and New England over Seattle in Super Bowl 49), the NFC has owned the matchup. Twelve Super Bowls (11, 12, 16, 18, 19, 24, 26, 28, 44, 48, 49, and 50) have featured the no. 1 seeds from each conference. In addition to the Broncos in Super Bowl 50 and Patriots in Super Bowl 49, the Los Angeles Raiders (Super Bowl 18) and Oakland Raiders (Super Bowl 11) are the only AFC teams to win the matchup.
Super Bowl 52 will feature the top seeds from the AFC and NFC.
9) Super Bowl Betting Trend #9: Defense Wins Championships
“When the Highest-Scoring Offense Meets the Top-Ranked Scoring Defense in the Super Bowl, the Defense Is 5-1”
The only top-scoring offense to beat the top-scoring defense in the Super Bowl was the San Francisco 49ers when they defeated the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 24. In the other five — Super Bowl 52 (Patriots vs Falcons), Super Bowl 48 (Broncos vs Seahawks), Super Bowl 25 (Giants vs Bills), Super Bowl 19 (49ers vs Dolphins), and Super Bowl 13 (Cowboys vs Steelers) — the defense came out on top.
Maybe there is some truth behind the old cliche that defense wins championships. While the Eagles’ weren’t quite the top-ranked scoring defense, they were very stingy (fourth overall, 18.4 PPG), and this trend should give them a confidence boost when they face down Tom Brady and the Patriots’ league-leading offense.
10) Super Bowl Betting Trend #10: Regular-Season Wins Mean Nothing
The 2016 New England Patriots (Super Bowl 51) and 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers (Super Bowl 43) are the only two teams in the last 12 years who possessed a better regular-season record than their Super Bowl opponent and went on to win the game. The Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots finished the 2017 regular season with identical 13-3 records.
11) Super Bowl Betting Trend #11: Who Needs Experience?
The New England Patriots overcame this trend last year when they beat the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51. They will again have the more experienced roster in the Super Bowl this year.
12) Super Bowl Betting Trend #12: Halftime Show Significance?
“Since 2001, the AFC Is 7-3 When the Halftime Show is Male-led”
Justin Timberlake is set to headline the Super Bowl 52 halftime show. He is widely believed to be male, though we may need another wardrobe malfunction to confirm.
13) Super Bowl Betting Trend #13: MVPs Can’t Win Super Bowls
Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Peyton Manning (twice), Tom Brady, Rich Gannon, and Kurt Warner all won NFL MVP and made it to the Super Bowl in the same season. Each one lost the big game. Tom Brady is the favorite for the 2017 NFL MVP award.
14) Super Bowl Betting Trend #14: Good Old February
“The AFC is 10-5 When the Super Bowl Is Played in February”
Super Bowl 36 marked the first time the NFL’s championship game was played in February. It has only been played in January once since then. Super Bowl 52 will also take place in February.
15) Super Bowl Betting Trend #15: The First One Is the Hardest
We have seen the New Orleans Saints (Super Bowl 44) and Seattle Seahawks (Super Bowl 48) win their franchise’s first Super Bowl in the last 14 years, while the Eagles (Super Bowl 39), Seahawks (Super Bowl 40), Panthers (Super Bowls 38 & 50), Cardinals (Super Bowl 43), and Falcons (Super Bowl 51) all came up short.