2023-24 NFL Conference Championship Odds Tracker

We tracked the odds to win the 2024 AFC and NFC Championships all season long—also read as which two teams will play in Super Bowl 58—from the moment they opened. (Looking for current NFL conference odds?) The graphs containing NFL conference championship odds below have been generated by averaging the odds from multiple sources.

You can see the how the odds to win the AFC Championship and NFC Championship changed throughout the course of the 2023-24 NFL season.

AFC | NFC

Odds to Win 2023-2024 AFC Championship

Kansas City yet again won the AFC Championship and represented their conference in the Super Bowl. The Baltimore Ravens were the favorites to win the AFC Championship, though. After the Chiefs continued struggling offensively, Baltimore took over as the favorites after Week 14. Kansas City opened as the favorites, and ultimately ended up winning the conference.

Following Week 14, the Baltimore Ravens became the new favorites to win the AFC Championship in 2024. The Ravens were favored over the Chiefs in the AFC title game, as they were getting -162 odds to dethrone the Chiefs as AFC champions. Kansas City’s odds to win the game were listed at +136.

Here are some notes on the AFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 28] The Kansas City Chiefs upset the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship, punching their ticket to the Super Bowl in Las Vegas.
• [January 21] The Ravens will host the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Baltimore has opened as -175 favorites to win the game and are laying 3.5 points.
• [January 8] After winning the AFC East and clinching the 2-seed in the final week of the regular season, the Bills enter the playoffs with the second-best odds to win the AFC.
• [December 11] For the first time this season, the Chiefs are not favored to win the AFC Championship. After they lost to the Bills in Week 14, showing more of the same offensive concerns displayed all season, the Baltimore Ravens have taken over as the favorites. Kansas City didn’t just drop one spot, though. The Dolphins overtook them for the second-best odds as well, leaving KC with the third-best.
• [November 17] The Bengals had +825 odds to win the AFC before their Week 11 game against the Ravens, but are now given +5000 odds after Joe Burrow has been announced out for the season with a wrist injury.
• [November 6] In early October, the Bills had the second-best odds to win the AFC Championship with average odds of +390. After Week 9, which saw Buffalo lose to the Bengals in what was their third loss in five weeks, the Bills have dropped to the sixth-best odds at +1100. Those odds put them right in the middle of the true contenders and lower-level playoff teams.
• [September 26] After Week 3, the Miami Dolphins moved ahead of the Bills for the second-best odds to win the AFC Championship.
• [September 12] The Browns saw their odds improve from +2000 to +1000 after a dominant victory over the Bengals in Week 1. The Jets, who lost Aaron Rodgers for the season to a torn Achilles just four plays into his debut, have faded from +1100 to +3000. None of the Chiefs, Bills, or Bengals saw their odds move much after they all lost in Week 1.
• [March 15] The Jets now have the fourth-best odds to win the AFC after Aaron Rodgers has confirmed his intentions to play for them this season. A deal still needs to be finalized, but it appears the two sides are well on their way. New York’s odds improved from +1400 to +800 as a result.
• [February 13] The Kansas City Chiefs, who are the reigning Super Bowl champions, have opened as the favorites to win the 2024 AFC Championship.

Odds to Win 2024 NFC Championship

The 49ers opened as the favorites to win the NFC Championship. We saw the Eagles take over as favorites for most of the offseason, but San Francisco regained their place atop the odds after Week 1. That changed again after the 49ers lost to the Bengals in Week 8, but they regained their spot atop the odds after Week 12.

Brock Purdy and company pulled off a big comeback in the NFC Championship and took on the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers were favored over the Lions in the NFC Championship. The 49ers were given -310 odds to win the game. Detroit was listed at +250 odds to pull off the upset.

One of the bigger surprises in the NFC Championship odds was the Detroit Lions, who were given the fourth-best odds on the board at +900 entering the playoffs, but were as short as +250 as they took on the 49ers in the NFC Championship. Only the 49ers, Cowboys, and Eagles had better odds than the Lions to win the NFC in 2023-24 during the regular season.

Here are some notes on the NFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 28] San Francisco found themselves down 24-7 to the Lions entering halftime of the NFC Championship, but tied the game up before the fourth quarter even started. The 49ers went on to win 34-31 and will head back to the Super Bowl for the first time in four years, when they played the same team they’ll meet in Las Vegas.
• [January 21] The Lions head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. Brock Purdy’s squad is listed as -310 favorites to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.
• [January 2, 2024] For the first time this season, the Eagles are not among the top two in NFC Championship odds. Philadelphia’s Week 17 loss to the Cardinals has resulted in Dallas controlling the NFC East and overtaking them for the second-best conference odds behind the 49ers.
• [November 28] Even though the Eagles beat the Bills to move to 10-1, sportsbooks are obviously feeling concerned with Philadelphia’s inability to put a complete game together. The result has been San Francisco moving back to being the slight favorites to win the NFC Championship.
• [November 21] After beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead on Monday Night Football of Week 11, the Eagles have broken away as the favorite to win the NFC Championship. They were tied with the 49ers prior to this.
• [October 10] The Cowboys were embarrassed by the 49ers in Week 5, resulting in the Lions moving up into the third-best odds to win the NFC Championship. Dallas’ odds faded from +450 to +850.
• [September 12] The San Francisco 49ers have taken over as the NFC favorites after Week 1. The Niners demolished the Steelers in Week 1 and looked very good on both sides of the ball.
• [June 1] Since the NFL Draft, the Seahawks have seen their NFC Championship odds steadily improve. They opened at +3000, tied for the third-worst odds, but are now just +1100, which are the fifth-best on the board.
• [March 16] Since signing Derek Carr in free agency, the New Orleans Saints have seen their NFC Championship odds improve from +2200 to +1100, the fifth-best in the conference.
• [February 13] The San Francisco 49ers have opened as the favorites to win the NFC Championship in 2024, in spite of the Eagles beating them this past season and having a very young core that is basically all set to return this coming season. San Francisco has a potentially nice problem on their hands in a QB battle brewing between Trey Lance and Brock Purdy they will have to resolve.