Opening 2019 NFL Win Totals: Patriots Projected to Win Most Games (11)

• The Patriots have finished under 11 wins in a season just three times since 2001
• The NFL’s final four from last year had win totals set in double figures
• What’s the best bet on New England’s projected win total?

At some point, this Patriots dynasty of excellence will come to an end. But not yet.

The latest win totals have New England at the top of the NFL, the only team with an O/U line set at 11.

With ageless wonder Tom Brady at pivot, and mastermind Bill Belichick manning the controls, can this club break that figure for the 13th time in 19 years?

Projected 2019 NFL Regular Season Win Totals

*Odds taken 03/05/19. For the full list of teams, click the link in the table above.

2019 Schedule Has Some Solid Competition

The Patriots gobble up wins year in and year out. Last year was the first time in nine seasons they failed to win more than 11 games (they won 11). It’s no coincidence they rank at the top of the 2019 NFL win totals.

Since their first Super Bowl win in 2001, New England has won 11 or more games a staggering 15 times.

In fact, since their first Super Bowl win in 2001, New England has won 11 or more games a staggering 15 times, and has finished with less than 11 wins just three times. To put that in perspective, the rest of the AFC East have combined for three 11-win seasons over the same period.

No AFC East team this century has finished a season with a better record than the Patriots. New England has failed to win the division twice since 2001, but in both cases they were tied for first place and lost the tiebreaker.

— Brad Gagnon (@Brad_Gagnon) April 3, 2019

Ten (and probably even nine) wins is going to be enough to take the division and clinch a playoff berth, but 12 should put them in range of that coveted first-round playoff bye. The Pats haven’t had to play on Wild Card Weekend since 2009, a span of nine years.

L👀king ahead.#Patriots 2019 opponents: https://t.co/pOR4yNgO2c pic.twitter.com/KZloC2WiH9

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) February 13, 2019

It’s a challenging path to get there. Within the AFC, they’ll have home games against the Chiefs, Browns, and Steelers, while playing in Baltimore and Houston. They’ll be cross-matched with the NFC East next year, which means a couple of big tilts against the Eagles (road) and Cowboys (home).

https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/1085530107022901256

New England will likely be heavy favorites against the remaining slate of Cincinnati, Washington, and the New York Giants. If they sweep these three games, and pencil them in for five wins within the AFC East, that leaves the Patriots having to go 4-3 through the meaty parts of their schedule to get to 12 wins. 

A Healthy Tom Brady is the Key

No other player on another team is as indispensable as Tom Brady is to the Patriots.

Tom Brady rips a laser to Cordarrelle Patterson for the TD. Thing of beauty. https://t.co/AzIme45Der

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 9, 2018

The Patriots front office does a good job at creating a deep roster of good players, but that falls apart if Brady misses an extended period of time. This isn’t two years ago, when Deflategate had him suspended for four games and Jimmy Garoppollo and Jacoby Brissett were both competent and capable of holding it down.

The Patriots’ roster of QBs behind Brady is Brian Hoyer and Danny Etling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2z5GiMxkFls

Brady, who will turn 42 in August, just completed another high-level season that ended in a sixth Super Bowl win for the franchise. He completed 65.8% of his passes for 4,355 yards, with 29 touchdown tosses and 11 interceptions.

He lost a major weapon when TE Rob Gronkowski retired, but the brilliance of Belichick being able to unearth pieces via the draft or shrewd trades or signings, combined with Brady being able to incorporate new pieces into the structure, keeps the machine moving for at least another season.

Pick: Over 11 wins (-110)