Phillies vs Yankees Odds, Prediction, Starting Pitchers & Splits (Friday, July 25)

• Two of baseball’s premier teams, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees, open a marquee interleague series in the Bronx
• The starting pitching matchup features Taijuan Walker for the Phillies against Will Warren for the Yankees
• Read below for Yankees vs Phillies odds, prediction, starting pitchers, and betting splits

The Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Yankees tonight in a series that could preview October baseball. Taijuan Walker takes the mound for Philly against Will Warren in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Both teams have playoff hopes, but recent momentum favors the home side. The Yankees have been dominant in New York, while the Phillies have struggled as road underdogs. Add in warm weather and Yankee Stadium’s dimensions, and we could see plenty of offense.

First pitch is scheduled for Friday, July 25, at 7:05 PM ET on Apple TV+.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees Odds

Odds as of July 25, 2025 from MGM. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on Friday night MLB.

The Yankees opened at -154 and have been steamed to -170, while the total jumped from 9.5 to 10.5. The market gives New York about a 63% chance of winning after removing the vig.

That movement toward New York matters. Our MLB public betting trends show the Phillies are getting 43.5% of the money, but it’s clear where the most respected wagers are going. Sharps like the home team in a massive way tonight.

Phillies vs Yankees Prediction

Picks:

• New York Yankees Moneyline (-170)
• Over 10.5 Runs (-105)
• Best Prop: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-140)

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I’m going against the public and following the sharp money here. Yes, Philly is intriguing at a juicy underdog price, but the line is moving towards the home team for very good reason.

The Yankees are 8-3 as home favorites in their last 11 games. They’re 30-19 at Yankee Stadium this season. The Phillies? They’re just 3-8 as road underdogs recently and 2-9 in their last 11 road games against winning teams.

Warren’s ERA isn’t pretty, but he knows this park and has pitched better at home. Walker has to deal with a Yankees lineup built for these dimensions. That usually doesn’t end well.

As for the total, this is where public and sharp money actually agree. Nearly 79% of bets and 86% of the money are on the Over. When everyone’s on the same side, it usually hits. The weather’s warm, the park plays small, and both bullpens have struggled in July.

Even if the starters manage to be decent, both bullpens have issues. The Phillies’ 2.48 bullpen ERA and Yankees’ 3.76 look okay on paper, but that’s due for regression. Someone’s going to get touched up late.

Judge’s total bases prop at -140 is my prop play. He is 4-for-13 in his career against Taijuan Walker, and every hit has been a home run, so one swing can cash this bet. Add in his MLB-best .345 average, 37 homers, and a current tear (6 HR in his last 10), and you’ve got the perfect recipe for success.

Phillies vs Yankees Starting Pitchers

The Phillies have barely faced Warren (3-for-19, .158 AVG), while the Yankees have 31 hits in 88 career at-bats against Walker with 26 strikeouts, posting a .352 batting average

Will Warren (6-5, 4.91 ERA) has been better at home but got lit up for five runs with two homers in his last start. The Phillies rank third in isolated power against righties and should test him early.

Taijuan Walker (3-5, 3.75 ERA) tends to give up damage in his 4-5 inning starts. Since returning from injury, he allowed just one run to the Giants (who can’t hit) but gave up three runs and two homers to the Angels. Now he faces a Yankees lineup that leads baseball in isolated power over the last two weeks, with 14 homers in 10 games.

Pitcher Props

The props expect short outings. Walker’s 12.5 outs (4.1 innings) and Warren’s earned runs Over at -120 tell the story.

MLB Public Betting

There is 14.5% gap between bet percentage and money percentage on the Phillies ML, which is certainly interesting. It may suggest some larger wagers on Philadelphia, but clearly, there are even more massive and respected bets on the Yankees that have shifted the odds.

New York’s home record and the Phillies’ road struggles tell a clear story. When the trends are this obvious, I’ll take the favorite at home.

Expect a back-and-forth game where the Yankees pull away late. Something like 7-5.