Serie A Betting – Roma, AC Milan Fight for Euro. Spots

AS Roma (+120) at AC Milan (+215), Draw (+265)

AC Milan’s (15-12-10, 57 pts) nightmare season is one game away from getting even messier. The onetime Italian power needs to beat AS Roma (22-11-4, 77 pts) this Saturday (2:45 PM Eastern at San Siro Stadium) in their last Serie A fixture and get some help just to earn a spot in next year’s Europa League.

Currently seventh in the standings, Milan are one point below Sassuolo. Moving into the sixth spot in the table could land them a place in the 2016-17 Europa League, but that’s not a guarantee. If Milan beat Juventus in the Coppa Italia final next week, they will claim Italy’s last Europa League berth. If they lose, that berth will go to whichever team finishes sixth.

While Roma and AC Milan are squaring off, Sassuolo will be playing their last fixtures against Inter Milan.

AS Roma, on the other hand, still have a shot at the Champions League. The top two clubs from Serie A get a direct ticket to the UCL next year. Roma are sitting third, two points back of second-place Napoli. A win on Saturday plus a Napoli to loss to Frosinone would see them end the year as runner-up.

At the end of the day, both teams know they need to win to have any shot at their respective goals. They drew 1-1 earlier this season at Stadio Olimpico, and I expect a similar result this weekend. Milan are not the team they used to be, yet Roma haven’t been able to beat them in the last three head-to-head (0-2-1).

The handicap listed visiting Roma at -0.5.  I expect a draw, but you can always back Milan in the handicap to get a safer bet.

Pick: Draw.

(Photo credit: danheap77 (IMG_0091) [CC BY 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0], via Wikimedia Commons.)