Deshaun Watson the Best of the Rest in NFL MVP Odds; Is There Value in Betting Against Jackson and Wilson?

• Deshaun Watson is the third betting choice for NFL MVP at +1000
• Is he a good value bet, or is this a two-player battle between Lamar Jackson (-275) and Russell Wilson (+250)?
• The last six NFL MVP winners have  all been QBs

Is Deshaun Watson still a legitimate contender in the NFL MVP race?

You can’t say the Houston Texans quarterback isn’t enjoying a fine season. He’s got the 8-4 Texans atop the AFC South Division. Houston defeated Tom Brady and the two-time defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots on Sunday.

Watson is tied for third in the NFL with 23 touchdown passes. He owns a solid 23:7 TD-to-interception ratio. His 105.9 passer rating is sixth in the league.

Could Watson be in with an MVP chance? Odds list him as the third betting choice in the NFL MVP odds at +1000.

2020 NFL MVP Odds

Odds taken on Dec. 5

Is he a good value bet, or should you concentrate your wagers on the top two contenders, quarterbacks Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens and Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks?

Watson Hasn’t Been the One

Passing for 234 yards and three TDs in Sunday’s 28-22 win over the Patriots, the performance earned Watson his third AFC offensive player of the week nod this season.

Watson’s average MVP odds across the leading sportsbooks lowered from +1950 to +1100. Still, that’s a long way off the top of the leaderboard.

Most Pass TD vs Patriots This Season:

Deshaun Watson – 3
DeAndre Hopkins – 1
Lamar Jackson – 1
Baker Mayfield – 1
Carson Wentz – 1
Daniel Jones – 1 pic.twitter.com/DYbHM5WIvJ

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) December 2, 2019

He’s never been better than third on the odds boards all season long. Watson’s best average odds to win the NFL MVP were +383 on Nov. 5.

Houston’s remaining schedule won’t help Watson make an MVP case for himself.

How do y’all like the roles reversed?@deshaunwatson @HoustonTexans #NEvsHOU #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/fTxcmFqcke

— Deandre Hopkins (@DeAndreHopkins) December 3, 2019

The Texans have a home-and-home set with the Tennessee Titans, as well as games against the Denver Broncos and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Not one of those teams boasts of a winning record this season.

Big Names Out of MVP Race

Two former NFL MVPs are also on the odds board but neither holds even a sliver of hope of winning the award this season.

I'm going to ask again.

How in the hell is Aaron Rodgers ahead of Kirk Cousins in the MVP race?

Is this a popularity contest or based on who is actually playing the best THIS season.

And don't bring up Rodgers has a Super Bowl either. That's irrelevant to this season.

— Dominique Clare (@DomClare) November 25, 2019

Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs was leading the race until he lost time to a knee injury. Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, the MVP in 2011 and 2014, also had a brief fling atop the leaderboard but has since faded.

Michael Thomas dropped a pass in the 3rd quarter.

198 catches. 22 games. 403 days. That's how long it had been since his last drop 😳 pic.twitter.com/btRHGarfaz

— ESPN (@espn) November 29, 2019

There’s also Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints, who leads the NFL in receptions (120) and receiving yardage (1,290). However, a wide receiver has never won the NFL MVP award.

A placekicker has, but a wideout hasn’t. Go figure.

Sorry Deshaun, But It’s Lamar or Russell

Watson has two problems in making an MVP case for himself. Those problems are Jackson and Wilson.

Wins over the Patriots and Chiefs gave Watson signature victories to hang his hat on. He’d lost to the Saints (10-2) and the Texans were absolutely embarrassed by Jackson and the 10-2 Ravens 41-7.

Russell getting Lamar-like love as he leaves the field to "MVP" chants.

Who's your choice for NFL MVP?

(via @SportsCenter)pic.twitter.com/pD0zryuQy9

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) December 3, 2019

Houston is a playoff team but a tier below the realistic Super Bowl contenders. Watson is in the MVP conversation but when talking about who’s going to win, he’s not in the first sentence.

Those spots are reserved for Jackson and Wilson. And with each passing week, as he puts up another impressive performance, the conversation begins with Jackson and then goes to Wilson.

“I don’t have a vote, but if I did have a vote I’d vote for Lamar Jackson. Then I’d vote for him again, and then I’d steal your ballot and vote for Lamar Jackson for you if you weren’t going to vote for Lamar Jackson.”@jjones9 is pretty certain about who the NFL MVP should be. pic.twitter.com/m1mozEw3MH

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) November 26, 2019

Baltimore is the NFL’s best team and Jackson is the league’s best player. Unless either falters down the stretch, the NFL MVP is his to lose.

Pick: Lamar Jackson (-275).