Opening Spread in Texans vs Chiefs Divisional Round Matchup Favors KC by 7, Jumps to 8.5 Quickly

• The Houston Texans edged the Buffalo Bills 22-19 on Wild Card Weekend
• The Texans beat the Kansas City Chiefs 31-24 in Kansas City in Week 6
• Andy Reid’s teams are 18-3 coming off a bye week – read below our our prediction on how the line will move before kickoff

The Houston Texans outlasted the Buffalo Bills 22-19 on Wild Card Weekend to advance. Now they’ll visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional round, a team they have already beaten once this season. The Chiefs are listed as an 8-point favorite but which way will this betting line move by kickoff? Let’s take a closer look.

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Odds taken Jan 5.

Texans Outlast Bills To Advance

The Texans did get the win over the Bills but their performance wasn’t exactly impressive. They dug themselves a 16-0 hole before waking up in the fourth quarter and scoring 19 unanswered points. With a chance to closeout the game late in the fourth quarter, they failed to pick up a single yard and then allowed the Bills to tie it at 19 and force overtime.

The Texans defense did get a boost from the return of J.J. Watt, who was out most of the season, but they still allowed 425 yards, which was 63 yards more than their season average. The Bills were on the field for a whopping 81 plays, 16 more than the Texans, and compiled 172 rushing yards with a 5.7 yards-per-carry average. They played well when they had to, helping the Texans escape with the win.

WATSON IS A MAGICIAN.@deshaunwatson | #BUFvsHOU pic.twitter.com/9p8Zdl8F0Z

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 5, 2020

In terms of this betting line, bettors who saw this game aren’t exactly going to be impressed by Houston. That’s why we’ve already seen the betting line shift in Kansas City’s favor. We can probably expect more of that throughout the week.

Chiefs Return From A Bye

With the New England Patriots stumbling in Week 17 at home to the Miami Dolphins, the Kansas City Chiefs were a big beneficiary. The Chiefs ended up earning the No. 2 seed in the AFC and getting a week off to rest and recover. That’s going to be a big storyline this week as Andy Reid’s teams thrive with an extra week.

"Hail to the Dolphins."

—Andy Reid 😂

(via @Chiefs)pic.twitter.com/ygywvoj1Mx

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 29, 2019

In his career as a head coach, Reid’s teams are 18-3 when having an extra week to prepare. One of their best performances of the year was after a bye when they stomped the Oakland Raiders 40-9 in Week 13. Expect them to look sharp and crisp this week, especially since they’ll be at home.

Which Way Will The Line Move?

The Chiefs opened -7  and quickly climbed to -8.5 before coming back down half a point. Truth be told, a lot of these numbers in between -7.5 and -9.5 are all kind of ‘dead numbers’, so if the line is moving like this already, it’s likely to close at or near -10.

The @HoustonTexans take the lead! #WeAreTexans trailed 16-0 and now lead 19-16. #NFLPlayoffs

📺: #BUFvsHOU on ESPN/ABC
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app
Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/g2IubuwcCg pic.twitter.com/zEVhADYmbp

— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2020

Few people view the Texans as a strong playoff team as they’re the only squad with a negative point differential that qualified for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are at home, off a bye and eyeing revenge. That’s likely to push a lot of bettors to pile in on the Chiefs and push this line up to -10.

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