Braga vs Porto Odds & Prediction – Primeira Liga Round 18

• Trailing league leader Sporting by six points, Porto faces a difficult away trip to Braga on Sunday (3:45pm ET)
• The hosts have rattled off four consecutive wins, while Porto is riding a four-match shutout streak defensively
• Get a breakdown of the two clubs, Sunday’s matchup odds and a few value picks below

After an ice-cold start to the season, Braga (12-0-5) has come into its own under first-year boss Carlos Carvalhal — and sits two points clear of slumping Benfica in fourth place for the first time in a long while.

Porto (12-3-2) has shored things up at the back of late, riding 4-game clean sheet run, but has seen its scoring dry up against the likes of Farense (1-0) and Belenenses (0-0) in recent weeks.

Both are chasing Sporting’s ghost, with the capital-based club well ahead of the pack on 45 points at the halfway point of the Portuguese season.

Braga vs Porto Primeira Liga Odds

Odds taken Feb 6 at DraftKings

While the head-to-head history since 2007 has been dominated by Porto at 22-6-8, the tables have turned significantly in Braga’s favor in recent seasons.

The Guerreiros have won three of the last four meetings, including the last two contests at the Braga Municipal Stadium by 1-0 (Jan. 2020) and 2-1 (Jul. 2020) decisions.

Braga: Shifting Roster

There’s no doubt that Carvalhal’s side has been excellent this season, injecting itself into the mix for a Champions League spot and still kicking in both the Taça de Portugal (semifinal stage, vs Porto) and Europa League (Round of 32 stage, vs Roma).

The January transfer window did inflict some damage to Carvalhal’s outfit, however, with frontman Paulinho leaving for Sporting on a 16M euro fee; while Andraz Sporar came back the other way on loan, the Slovenian striker will likely take some time to integrate into the squad.

38 – Only Pizzi and Bruno Fernandes (each with 39 goals) have scored more goals than Paulinho (38) among all portuguese players in the Primeira Liga since the start of the 2017/18 season. Lion. pic.twitter.com/gySDCY5AOj

— OptaJoao (@OptaJoao) February 2, 2021

It remains to be seen whether Carvalhal will stick around long enough to elevate Braga to a title contender — he has only stayed for a single season at four of his last five managerial posts — but in the meantime the established power structure is under siege between the Guerreiros in 3rd and Sporting atop the table.

Porto: Bruised, but Still Alive

From Nanu’s horrific head injury against Belenenses on Thursday to target man Mehdi Taremi’s general fitness, Porto is feeling every bit of its fixture congestion — with Sunday’s visit to Braga the club’s fourth match in nine days.

1 – FC Porto are currently four points behind Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga, but accordingly to our predictor they have the highest percentage of any team in the league to finish the season in the top place (54.9%). Future. pic.twitter.com/LQebs2fzcN

— OptaJoao (@OptaJoao) February 4, 2021

At +170 to win the Primeira Liga (Bet 365), bookmakers still believe Porto offer value and it’s easy to see why: Taremi was just named Player of the Month for January, Sergio Oliveira has become an elite midfield creator.

The question will be whether Sergio Conceicao’s team can navigate the middle of February — another two-week segment loaded with matches — and still be within touching distance of Sporting.

Braga vs Porto Best Bets

Porto’s squad is feeling the fixtures, and Braga is in solid form.

The hosts’ 7-0-1 home record cannot be ignored, nor can the recent history in the matchup: Braga with DNB protection (+110) is a tasty proposition.

Additionally, the Under 2.5 (-104) could be in play.

While Braga has been an Over machine this season (59%), Carvalhal’s side was shut out by Sporting twice in the span of two weeks in January — with both hitting the Under 2.5 — and five of Porto’s last six games have all hit the Under 2.5.

It’s a gamble as both teams have significant scoring threats, but we believe Portugal’s pragmatic coaching will prevail for the Under as it did throughout our Taça da Liga picks.

Pick: Braga DNB (+110), Under 2.5 (-104)